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Lottery Standings

Now that Miami lost, Chicago has clinched 1st place in the EC. They may not me motivated to blow out the Cavs in their last game. That said, I'm not sure why the Cavs would want to win games and join that cluster punch of lottery teams with 22 or 23 wins.
 
The Hornets are resting Eric Gordon and Jason Smith. Somehow the Warriors are still down by 4 right now. At least they're not getting blown out.

Edit: Both teams seem to be playing the bottom of their rosters. This is interesting.
 
To sum up:
Best case scenario; GS beats SA. We automatically get the pick.
If GS loses:
Worst case - A 3-way tie for 6th, 7th, and 8th worst record between FS, NJ/Tor, and Clev.
Best case - A 2-way tie for 6th and 7th worst between GS and NJ/Tor.
 
Most likely GS will be tied for 7th and 8th...it will then come down to coin flips and lottery balls to put them at 1 2 3 7 8 or 9.
Jazz chances of getting the pick is still approx 55%.
 
NotDeadYet said:
To sum up:
Best case scenario; GS beats SA. We automatically get the pick.
If GS loses:
Worst case - A 3-way tie for 6th, 7th, and 8th worst record between FS, NJ/Tor, and Clev.
Best case - A 2-way tie for 6th and 7th worst between GS and NJ/Tor.
Click to expand...

What? I'm pretty sure the best case is a 2 way tie for the 8th worst record between GS and NJ/Tor.

Edit: Worst case is a 3 way tie for the 8th spot between Cleveland, GS, and Toronto. Cleveland has to win it's last two.
 
I took a closer look.

I'd say the Jazz still have about a 65 to 70 % chance of getting the GS pick, but this is hard to estimate, because it depends on how dedicated they are to tanking, and how the Spurs will respond to their tanking. These are hard variables to quantify.

Assuming that Warriors lose to the Spurs, then the Jazz chances will still be about 60%.
 
northeast said:
I took a closer look.

I'd say the Jazz still have about a 65 to 70 % chance of getting the GS pick, but this is hard to estimate, because it depends on how dedicated they are to tanking, and how the Spurs will respond to their tanking. These are hard variables to quantify.

Assuming that Warriors lose to the Spurs, then the Jazz chances will still be about 60%.
Click to expand...

If GS loses to SA, then won't they be tied with NJ or Toronto, which would result in a coin toss which (correct me if I'm wrong) typically has 50/50 odds.
 
Cyrone Torbin said:
What? I'm pretty sure the best case is a 2 way tie for the 8th worst record between GS and NJ/Tor.

Edit: Worst case is a 3 way tie for the 8th spot between Cleveland, GS, and Toronto. Cleveland has to win it's last two.
Click to expand...

I'll try to clean this up:

Best case (in terms of just getting the pick): GS ties DET for 8th/9th worst, with both finishing at 24-42

Next best case: GS has sole position of the 8th worst record, they'd beat SA, and DET would beat Philly

Next best case: GS is tied with NJ or TOR for 7th and 8th, which would result in a coin toss (I've heard the coin toss would be this Friday)

Worst Case: GS is tied with CLE and NJ or TOR for 6th, 7th and 8th.

OK, which mistakes did I make, because I'm sure I made at least one.
 
northeast said:
As I mentioned , lottery balls are a factor, raising the chances from 50% to about 60%
Click to expand...

Wouldn't our odds go down when you factor in the lottery balls? Basically we'd have a 50/50 shot of them being slotted in the 8th spot, and then they'd still have a chance of jumping into the lottery, so basically our odds would be about 46% of getting the pick. This is considering they lose to SA.
 
margodydek said:
Wouldn't our odds go down when you factor in the lottery balls? Basically we'd have a 50/50 shot of them being slotted in the 8th spot, and then they'd still have a chance of jumping into the lottery, so basically our odds would be about 46% of getting the pick. This is considering they lose to SA.
Click to expand...

That is still pretty good, all things considered.
 
Cyrone Torbin said:
That is still pretty good, all things considered.
Click to expand...

Amen. Kevin Pelton sent out a tweet last night that broke down the odds of where the GS pick would end up (pre-lottery): 7th: 40.9%, 8th: 54.3% and 9th: 4.8%.

So he thinks there's about a 5% chance that GS beats the Spurs, and this was assuming SA doesn't rest anyone, so those odds could be more in our favor if they sit their stars.
 
margodydek said:
Amen. Kevin Pelton sent out a tweet last night that broke down the odds of where the GS pick would end up (pre-lottery): 7th: 40.9%, 8th: 54.3% and 9th: 4.8%.

So he thinks there's about a 5% chance that GS beats the Spurs, and this was assuming SA doesn't rest anyone, so those odds could be more in our favor if they sit their stars.
Click to expand...

I'm not holding my breath. I'm just glad the game is on national tv so people can see Mark Jackson sit Brandon Rush when he gets hot from outside.
 
margodydek said:
Wouldn't our odds go down when you factor in the lottery balls? Basically we'd have a 50/50 shot of them being slotted in the 8th spot, and then they'd still have a chance of jumping into the lottery, so basically our odds would be about 46% of getting the pick. This is considering they lose to SA.
Click to expand...

Odds go up because 7 could get bumped to 8
 
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