Lottery Standings
- Thread starter Stifle Tower
- Start date
margodydek
Well-Known Member
Also, while I love this team, and think that Millsap at the 3 next year could be all we need to make "the jump", you can't help but think about the fact that almost all of our pieces under contract next year (minus Watson & Bell) have seen their stock soar these past few months. KOC is going to have a ton of options this offseason.
Brown Notes
Well-Known Member
With the team in the playoffs, if Utah gets that GS pick maybe we can all be friends again.
margodydek
Well-Known Member
I'm no statistician, but I basically just went and looked at picks 8-14, and added up their odds of winning the lottery (#1 pick), which came out to 8.2%, so when you look at the odds of them getting the #2 or #3 picks, then yeah, I could see it being around 25%
Joe Bagadonuts
Well-Known Member
There is a greater chance that someone jumps them and pushes them back a spot than there is that they win a top three and get their pick back, so the lottery actually pushes the odds more in our favor.
theNBAnerd
Well-Known Member
to figure it out, we have to make some assumptions about how likely GS and cleveland are to win their remaining games, and then calculate separately the odds of the four different scenarios that result in us getting the pick:
1) GSW winning the spurs game, then not winning the lotto
2) GSW losing the spurs game, 3-way tie results in GSW 8th, then not winning the lotto
3) GSW losing the spurs game, 2-way tie results in GSW 8th, then not winning the lotto
4) GSW losing the spurs game, getting to 6th or 7th, but then getting bumped backward (which actually is comprised of three scenarios)
1) let's say they have a 1/3 chance of winning the spurs game... which in terms of accuscore predictions or vegas odds represents a pretty big underdog situation. i think that's fair. the spurs WILL be resting guys, but it's not like they'll be trying to lose. they still have homecourt in the finals to contend for. if they win, they're 8th worst with a 90% chance of staying 8-10 and not winning a top three pick. so far we're at a 30% chance of this scenario happening (.33 x .90).
2) add to that 30% odds the odds of them getting the pick with a loss, which we're saying there is a .667 chance of. to figure this we have to break it into two scenarios: GSW loses and winds up in a 3-way tie, GSW loses and winds up in a 2-way tie. so we need estimate the chances of cleveland winning out. we're talking about a .328 team who plays a home game against an inferior-but-streaking team, and then a road game against a far-superior-but-possibly-resting team. so let's say their record dictates the odds and give them a 1 in 3 chance at each game, or a .167 chance of winning both. so now there's a 66.7% chance they lose, coupled with the 16.7% chance that cleveland wins out for a 3-way tiebreaker to have a 33% chance of 8th worst where they'd have a 90% chance of keeping the pick. so this path represents an extra 3.3% (.667 x .167 x .33 x .90) chance on top of our original 30%... up to a 33.3% chance.
3) another scenario that lands us the pick is a golden state loss coupled with cleveland NOT winning out. if we assume (as we did in the last paragraphs) that GSW has a 66% chance of losing and cleveland has an 83% chance of losing at least once, then you're looking at that percentage multiplied by the resulting 50/50 coin toss with the winner of Tor/NJ, and again multiplied by the 90% chance that they don't move up from eighth. .667 x .833 x .5 x .9 = .250, so now we're up to a 58.3% chance.
4) finally, we have to account for everything going wrong and GS getting to 7th or 6th worst, but still getting bumped backward to eight or worse in the lotto. for this scenario to play out it's either:
- GS losing (.667), cleveland winning out (.167), GS wins 6 in a 3-way tiebreaker (.333) but then gets leapfrogged by two teams in the lotto (~.040). multiply all that together for a .001 chance
- GS losing (.667), cleveland winning out (.167), GS wins 7 in a 3-way tiebreaker (.333) but then gets leapfrogged by one or more team in the lotto (~.25). multiply all that together for a .009 chance.
- GS losing (.667), cleveland losing at least one (.833), GS wins 7 in a 2-way tiebreaker (.5) but then gets leapfrogged by one team in the lotto (~.25). multiply all that together for a .069 chance.
- total likelihood of GS getting to 6 or 7 but getting bumped backwards: 7.9%. our previous 58.3 plus this 7.9 means our total likelihood is 66.2%.
obviously the math changes as soon as cleveland wins/loses a game, or if we want to adjust the mathematical likelihood of GSW winning. but that's the methodology, and it says that a 2 in 3 chance is actually pretty close.
1) GSW winning the spurs game, then not winning the lotto
2) GSW losing the spurs game, 3-way tie results in GSW 8th, then not winning the lotto
3) GSW losing the spurs game, 2-way tie results in GSW 8th, then not winning the lotto
4) GSW losing the spurs game, getting to 6th or 7th, but then getting bumped backward (which actually is comprised of three scenarios)
1) let's say they have a 1/3 chance of winning the spurs game... which in terms of accuscore predictions or vegas odds represents a pretty big underdog situation. i think that's fair. the spurs WILL be resting guys, but it's not like they'll be trying to lose. they still have homecourt in the finals to contend for. if they win, they're 8th worst with a 90% chance of staying 8-10 and not winning a top three pick. so far we're at a 30% chance of this scenario happening (.33 x .90).
2) add to that 30% odds the odds of them getting the pick with a loss, which we're saying there is a .667 chance of. to figure this we have to break it into two scenarios: GSW loses and winds up in a 3-way tie, GSW loses and winds up in a 2-way tie. so we need estimate the chances of cleveland winning out. we're talking about a .328 team who plays a home game against an inferior-but-streaking team, and then a road game against a far-superior-but-possibly-resting team. so let's say their record dictates the odds and give them a 1 in 3 chance at each game, or a .167 chance of winning both. so now there's a 66.7% chance they lose, coupled with the 16.7% chance that cleveland wins out for a 3-way tiebreaker to have a 33% chance of 8th worst where they'd have a 90% chance of keeping the pick. so this path represents an extra 3.3% (.667 x .167 x .33 x .90) chance on top of our original 30%... up to a 33.3% chance.
3) another scenario that lands us the pick is a golden state loss coupled with cleveland NOT winning out. if we assume (as we did in the last paragraphs) that GSW has a 66% chance of losing and cleveland has an 83% chance of losing at least once, then you're looking at that percentage multiplied by the resulting 50/50 coin toss with the winner of Tor/NJ, and again multiplied by the 90% chance that they don't move up from eighth. .667 x .833 x .5 x .9 = .250, so now we're up to a 58.3% chance.
4) finally, we have to account for everything going wrong and GS getting to 7th or 6th worst, but still getting bumped backward to eight or worse in the lotto. for this scenario to play out it's either:
- GS losing (.667), cleveland winning out (.167), GS wins 6 in a 3-way tiebreaker (.333) but then gets leapfrogged by two teams in the lotto (~.040). multiply all that together for a .001 chance
- GS losing (.667), cleveland winning out (.167), GS wins 7 in a 3-way tiebreaker (.333) but then gets leapfrogged by one or more team in the lotto (~.25). multiply all that together for a .009 chance.
- GS losing (.667), cleveland losing at least one (.833), GS wins 7 in a 2-way tiebreaker (.5) but then gets leapfrogged by one team in the lotto (~.25). multiply all that together for a .069 chance.
- total likelihood of GS getting to 6 or 7 but getting bumped backwards: 7.9%. our previous 58.3 plus this 7.9 means our total likelihood is 66.2%.
obviously the math changes as soon as cleveland wins/loses a game, or if we want to adjust the mathematical likelihood of GSW winning. but that's the methodology, and it says that a 2 in 3 chance is actually pretty close.
theNBAnerd
Well-Known Member
wow, that was nerdy.
That was awesome!!!! Repd again.
margodydek
Well-Known Member
Nerd, I thoroughly enjoyed reading that
theNBAnerd
Well-Known Member
pray tell...
theNBAnerd
Well-Known Member
not an error... those were two separate sets of odds that you have to multiply together:
* .333 chance that the warriors beat SA to clinch 8th worst
* once they do that, there's a 90% chance that the ping pong balls keep them 8th or later
I'm not choosing sides in this, but I do find it strange that you're asking Nerds opinion just after telling him his prior post was not worth reading.