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One day before the election. Can the Never Trump people finally relax? With one notable exception, the best aggregators now put Clinton anywhere from an 85 to 99 percent favorite to win the presidency. If Trump wins it will be the biggest upset in modern presidential history. Much more surprising, for example, than Truman/Dewey way back in 1948.

Still, there is some nagging doubt. Nate Silver of 538, easily the most popular and one of the most accurate of the aggregators, has Clinton at only a 65 percent favorite. Silver’s relatively favorable outlook for Trump has caused considerable controversy and angst amongst Trump detractors. Some even accuse him of a bad faith adjustment to his calculations in order to make the race seem more competitive and thereby increase traffic to his ESPN sponsored website.

In contrast to Silver is Sam Wang of the Princeton Election Consortium, which now puts Clinton at a greater than 99 percent win probability. While not nearly as well known or popular, the Princeton Election Consortium has been even more accurate over the last two presidential elections than 538. Wang essentially called the election for Clinton weeks ago.

It’s easy for conformation bias to seep into our search for answers, which is probably why I give more credence to Wang than Silver, but he does have a more academic approach and a much less volatile model over the last few months.

Here is a recent article, in fairly technical detail, on the Princeton model:

https://election.princeton.edu/2016/11/06/is-99-a-reasonable-probability/

I don't know what these guys are looking at, but I continue to have Trump at 100% in all of my projections.
 
I've voted once in my life (John McCain FTW) and from the time I left my house, walked to the voting booth, voted, and walked back, it took no more than 15 min.

PS: I kept my McCain 08' keychain for several years until one day it just broke and fell off somewhere.
 
I really Like McCain. Was a little disappointed in his late campaign, but I still have tons of respect for him.

The thing that stands out the most is when the woman in his audience said Obama was a Muslim, etc. and McCain corrected her. Nothing like that would happen this time around. Both sides are the devil according to the other side.

Obviously I've gotten caught up in all that. One more day!
 
The reason the line was long is because this year it's supposed to be all mail-in voting. They have some places where you can vote in-person, but not as many as they would normally have. I've never waited even close to 5 min to vote. This year I didn't wait at all, I mailed in my ballot a couple weeks ago.
I don't think so, or at least I haven't heard of that. The reason why the line was so long is that there is only one place in all of Orem where you can go to vote early. My regular voting location tomorrow is same place it's always been, a local elementary school. I expect first thing in morning and last thing at night it'll be packed, but I'm planning to go middle of the day.
 
There is not mail in voting in Utah county where Colton is. That was just SLC county.
Aha, his question makes more sense now. There is mail in voting here, but it's not the default. You have to specially request it.
 
I really Like McCain. Was a little disappointed in his late campaign, but I still have tons of respect for him.

The thing that stands out the most is when the woman in his audience said Obama was a Muslim, etc. and McCain corrected her. Nothing like that would happen this time around. Both sides are the devil according to the other side.

Obviously I've gotten caught up in all that. One more day!

I don't think this will calm down until late Wednesday.
 
I don't think this will calm down until late Wednesday.

I don't think it will calm down at all.

For the record the President did this just the other day I believe. Vet protestor with a R campaign sign. Crowd started hollering at him and the President stepped in. basically said: no, we respect free speech, we respect our vets and our seniors. He is voicing his opinion and support for what he believes. Respect that.

Then the security detail ushered the protestor out.

Kudos Mr. President.
 
Aha, his question makes more sense now. There is mail in voting here, but it's not the default. You have to specially request it.
This is the first time I have got a mail in ballot. It was very nice this year. I got it mailed to me over a week ago. I was able to sit down and research properly everything on it while voting. I am not sure why everywhere doesn't do it the way SLC did it this year.
 
I think there needs to be a standardized way to vote in this country regardless of where you are. Whether it is by mail, internet, polling place, whatever, it shouldn't be different all over the country, state by state and even county by county. That is ludicrous. It just makes it confusing for anyone who may be moving or in a new location or if the laws change in your own area. They say get out and vote and then make it a scavenger hunt to vote. Stupid.
 
As an addendum to an earlier post, here’s an article by Matthew Yglesias on why Nate Silver is underestimating Clinton’s odds of winning. Yglesias is one the more balanced and thoughtful political writers.

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2016/11/7/13550068/nate-silver-forecast-wrong

BTW, Silver’s projections on Clinton’s chances of winning have been steadily ticking upward throughout the day, starting at 64.5 and now up to 68.5, due to new polling data favorable to Clinton.
 
Why didn't you mail in your ballot?
I love mail-in voting. No more lines, no more waiting for people to find my name in a large book, no more trying to figure out the machines. Love it!
 
All my social media is blowed up with political propaganda. I feel like a Iowa resident.
It is kind of fun that Utah feels like they actually matter for a change. I predict Trump will win easily, but at least there's been hope of something different.
 
I really Like McCain. Was a little disappointed in his late campaign, but I still have tons of respect for him.

The thing that stands out the most is when the woman in his audience said Obama was a Muslim, etc. and McCain corrected her. Nothing like that would happen this time around. Both sides are the devil according to the other side.

Obviously I've gotten caught up in all that. One more day!

Is your respect for McCain in any way affected by his recent statements to the effect that the Republican Senate will/may refuse to consider any Supreme Court Hillary puts forward?

This statments, if sincere, takes him out of the resonable camp and puts him squarely in the fanatic camp, IMHO. I find it to be very, very disappointing.
 
I don't think it will calm down at all.

For the record the President did this just the other day I believe. Vet protestor with a R campaign sign. Crowd started hollering at him and the President stepped in. basically said: no, we respect free speech, we respect our vets and our seniors. He is voicing his opinion and support for what he believes. Respect that.

Then the security detail ushered the protestor out.

Kudos Mr. President.

I didn't vote for Obama in either election. But no matter who wins tomorrow, I am going to miss having a President who is a decent, kind, calm, caring person who I felt tried to do the right things for the right reasons and faced an extremely difficult task. I'm going to miss his wife as First Lady. I'm grateful they broke the presidential race barrier.
 
Is your respect for McCain in any way affected by his recent statements to the effect that the Republican Senate will/may refuse to consider any Supreme Court Hillary puts forward?

This statments, if sincere, takes him out of the resonable camp and puts him squarely in the fanatic camp, IMHO. I find it to be very, very disappointing.

He has apparently backed off from that statement, but it was very appalling. Since the Republican platform seems to be solely to fight Democrats, I wasn't terribly surprised.
 
Is your respect for McCain in any way affected by his recent statements to the effect that the Republican Senate will/may refuse to consider any Supreme Court Hillary puts forward?

This statments, if sincere, takes him out of the resonable camp and puts him squarely in the fanatic camp, IMHO. I find it to be very, very disappointing.
No it doesn't. And I find that very disappointing.

I hope that Clinton guess much further to the left than Obama's moderate candidate that they blocked. Teach them to **** around.
 
He has apparently backed off from that statement, but it was very appalling. Since the Republican platform seems to be solely to fight Democrats, I wasn't terribly surprised.

Our very own Mike Lee is also supporting a policy of not allowing Hillary to appoint a single Supreme Court justice, under the theory that she'd appoint ones inclined to support the Democratic policy agenda (and AS IF a Republican president would nominate justices based solely on their legal bonafides :rolleyes:)

Unfortunately, I think we'll see a repeat, even doubling down, of the Republican strategy vs. Obama--obstruct, obstruct, obstruct. Republicans will reason that IF they only hold out for 4 more years, they can defeat Hillary in 2020, which is what they reasoned in 2008 and 2012 with regards to Obama. Thus we will have had 12 years of Republican obstructionism in Congress by 2020. The US needs two parties each with a serious committment to governing and finding solutions to pressing issues requiring some degree of cooperation and compromise. What has happened the last 8 years, and will likely occur over the next 4 years, is very discouraging and can't help but make cynics of us all.

Over the last 8 years, Republicans have made it clear that they have no intention to govern or act in good faith with regards to a Democratic President. They could have, for example, come to the table with a serious reform proposal for the Affordable Care Act, but instead for 8 years they've pandered to the fanatics in their base by voting time and time again to repeal it. They still have yet to articulate a realistic, serious proposal that would keep levels of coverage anywhere near where they have risen under ACA.

I would, further, take odds on a bet that at some point, Republicans will gin up some reason to try to impeach Hillary, should she win. Those of us support a progressive policy agenda can only hope that the Democrats reclaim control of the Senate, particularly, if past trends hold, Republicans make gains in the mid-term elections, then she'll have at least two years to try to get something done.

God, I hate politics.
 
I didn't vote for Obama in either election. But no matter who wins tomorrow, I am going to miss having a President who is a decent, kind, calm, caring person who I felt tried to do the right things for the right reasons and faced an extremely difficult task. I'm going to miss his wife as First Lady. I'm grateful they broke the presidential race barrier.

I'll freely and readily give the President that. He was a good man. Family man, intelligent, calm, caring...
 
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