UGLI baby
Well-Known Member
One day before the election. Can the Never Trump people finally relax? With one notable exception, the best aggregators now put Clinton anywhere from an 85 to 99 percent favorite to win the presidency. If Trump wins it will be the biggest upset in modern presidential history. Much more surprising, for example, than Truman/Dewey way back in 1948.
Still, there is some nagging doubt. Nate Silver of 538, easily the most popular and one of the most accurate of the aggregators, has Clinton at only a 65 percent favorite. Silver’s relatively favorable outlook for Trump has caused considerable controversy and angst amongst Trump detractors. Some even accuse him of a bad faith adjustment to his calculations in order to make the race seem more competitive and thereby increase traffic to his ESPN sponsored website.
In contrast to Silver is Sam Wang of the Princeton Election Consortium, which now puts Clinton at a greater than 99 percent win probability. While not nearly as well known or popular, the Princeton Election Consortium has been even more accurate over the last two presidential elections than 538. Wang essentially called the election for Clinton weeks ago.
It’s easy for conformation bias to seep into our search for answers, which is probably why I give more credence to Wang than Silver, but he does have a more academic approach and a much less volatile model over the last few months.
Here is a recent article, in fairly technical detail, on the Princeton model:
https://election.princeton.edu/2016/11/06/is-99-a-reasonable-probability/
I don't know what these guys are looking at, but I continue to have Trump at 100% in all of my projections.