Official Utah/Minnesota/Philadelphia Pick Watch

[fishonjazz]

With Olynyk and Gay it'd be addition by subtraction.

agreed.
Im really really curious to see what happens when KO comes back. I will be pretty pissed if Kessler goes back to 20-23 minutes per game (he is still only averaging 19.5 for the season). I mean we already had enough evidence before KO got hurt that Kessler should be getting way more minutes. After games like tonight Hardy has to have finally realized what many of already knew right?

 

[Coach Ellis]

I think if we trade vets it doesn't hurt us much. Our young guys are really really good.

Jazz reloaded with a lot of solid young players that should drive the rebuilding effort forward. I’d like to see some more trades of veteran players to hopefully get some more picks or at least opportunities to swap a move up this year or in the future. But things look bright for next year.

C: Walker Kessler - 21 years old
22/23 - $2.7 million
23/24 - $2.8 million
24/25 - $2.9 million
25/26 - $4.8 million
26/27 - RFA ($7.0 million QO)

PG: Talen Horton-Tucker - 22 years old
22/23 - $10.2 million
23/24 - $11.0 million (player option)

SG: Ochai Agbaji - 22 years old
22/23 - $3.9 million
23/24 - $4.1 million
24/25 - $4.3 million
25/26 - $6.4 million
26/27 - RFA ($8.9 million QO)

PF: Jarred Vanderbilt - 23 years old
22/23 - $4.3 million
23/24 - $4.6 million

PG: Colin Sexton - 24 years old
22/23 - $16.5 million
23/24 - $17.7 million
24/25 - $18.1 million
25/26 - $19.0 million

PG: Nickeil Alexander-Walker - 24 years old
22/23 - $5.0 million
23/24 - RFA ($7.0 million QO)

SF: Lauri Markkanen - 25 years old
22/23 - $16.5 million
23/24 - $17.3 million
24/25 - $18.1 million

SG: Malik Beasley - 26 years old -
22/23 - $15.5 million
23/24 - $16.5 million (team option)

 

[JazzFever]

Jazz reloaded with a lot of solid young players that should drive the rebuilding effort forward. I’d like to see some more trades of veteran players to hopefully get some more picks or at least opportunities to swap a move up this year or in the future. But things look bright for next year.

...

SG: Malik Beasley - 26 years old -
22/23 - $15.5 million
23/24 - $16.5 million (team option)

Especially with the salary cap going up, we have a hugely flexible roster composition. Lots of good players on value contracts. About as well positioned as you could ask for.

 

[HermanG]

They are a 10 game Ant absence away from falling out of the play in imo. As long as he is playing they are like a .500-ish team.

Well I'll be happy to tell you that Vegas strongly disagrees with you. They dont think Ant injury is necessary at all. I've been ranting about their schedule without anyone discussing or even reacting to it... but its about time to wake up and smell the coffee as it smells GREAT.

After last night... here are the latest Fanduel win lines (expected wins at the end of the season) from bottom up:
1. Rockets 19.5 wins <-- Yesterdays line. New line pending from loss to Lakers.
T-2. Pistons 21.5 wins
T-2. Spurs 21.5 wins
4. Hornets 24.5 wins
5. Magic 30.5 wins
T-6. Wizards 34.5 wins
T-6. Thunder 35.5 wins <--- Undervalued.
T-8. Wolves 38.5 wins
T-8. Bulls 38.5 wins
T-8. Lakers 38.5 wins <-- Yesterdays line. New line still pending from yesterdays win over Houston.
T-11. Jazz 39.5 wins
T-11 Raptors 39.5 wins

I think OKC has been heating up lately and could easily go on a run with the 2nd easiest remaining schedule in the league.. hence the undervalued tag. Bulls and Raptors have told they are not pulling the plug but are gonna ride this season out. Still 3 weeks left before deadline so anything can happen ofc... but if they fight for the play in all the way this could be the final lottery ranking.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Well I'll be happy to tell you that Vegas strongly disagrees with you. They dont think Ant injury is necessary at all. I've been ranting about their schedule without anyone discussing or even reacting to it... but its about time to wake up and smell the coffee as it smells GREAT.

After last night... here are the latest Fanduel win lines (expected wins at the end of the season) from bottom up:
1. Rockets 19.5 wins <-- Yesterdays line. New line pending from loss to Lakers.
T-2. Pistons 21.5 wins
T-2. Spurs 21.5 wins
4. Hornets 24.5 wins
5. Magic 30.5 wins
T-6. Wizards 34.5 wins
T-6. Thunder 35.5 wins <--- Undervalued.
T-8. Wolves 38.5 wins
T-8. Bulls 38.5 wins
T-8. Lakers 38.5 wins <-- Yesterdays line. New line still pending from yesterdays win over Houston.
T-11. Jazz 39.5 wins
T-11 Raptors 39.5 wins

I think OKC has been heating up lately and could easily go on a run with the 2nd easiest remaining schedule in the league.. hence the undervalued tag. Bulls and Raptors have told they are not pulling the plug but are gonna ride this season out. Still 3 weeks left before deadline so anything can happen ofc... but if they fight for the play in all the way this could be the final lottery ranking.

I mean we’ve been on the schedule since like preseason so it’s not surprising that people here aren’t acting like it’s some revelation. SOS is nice and a lot of times it will play out that way but you never know when good teams are going to get a key injury… look at the Suns right now… warriors without Steph… so the odds that 2 of Phoenix, LA (schedule is rough for them too) OKC, Portland passing Minny with us not falling below them as well… likely rests more on Minnys health rest of the season than just schedule. Lots of things go into Vegas thinking and I’m guessing the Minny over doesn’t attract any action unless it’s set a little low… ain’t like the Lakers that will get a ton of action on the over because of dumb lakers fans.

 

[HermanG]

I mean we’ve been on the schedule since like preseason so it’s not surprising that people here aren’t acting like it’s some revelation. SOS is nice and a lot of times it will play out that way but you never know when good teams are going to get a key injury… look at the Suns right now… warriors without Steph… so the odds that 2 of Phoenix, LA (schedule is rough for them too) OKC, Portland passing Minny with us not falling below them as well… likely rests more on Minnys health rest of the season than just schedule. Lots of things go into Vegas thinking and I’m guessing the Minny over doesn’t attract any action unless it’s set a little low… ain’t like the Lakers that will get a ton of action on the over because of dumb lakers fans.

If you know their schedule has been easy and is gonna turn real ugly... then why do you still believe they are gonna surge without Ant injury? Are you betting on those injuries for other teams will happen regardless?

They suck. With Rudy they cannot score, without Rudy they cannot defend. Been that way all year and its still that way. You saw that with your own eyes yesterday, when they got 0 stops in the 4th against us playing without Lauri. I would appreciate for them to sink even lower and give us like 7th best odds, but that requires too many moving parts to move the right way that even an optimist like myself cannot really buy that.

 

[Elizah Huge]

Minnesota isn’t good. At best they’re .500 and a play-in team. Gobert will be out a few games I’m sure. They are going to start to slide. I don’t think we will end up with like a top-7 pick from them but a top-12 pick is certainly within reason.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

If you know their schedule has been easy and is gonna turn real ugly... then why do you still believe they are gonna surge without Ant injury? Are you betting on those injuries for other teams will happen regardless?

They suck. With Rudy they cannot score, without Rudy they cannot defend. Been that way all year and its still that way. You saw that with your own eyes yesterday, when they got 0 stops in the 4th against us playing without Lauri. I would appreciate for them to sink even lower and give us like 7th best odds, but that requires too many moving parts to move the right way that even an optimist like myself cannot really buy that.

I didn’t say they would surge… I said they’d be .500 ish… which is good enough to be a play in team. That was the debate… to sink below the play in Ant will need to miss time or Rudy and Kat struggle to get healthy for longer than anticipated.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Minnesota isn’t good. At best they’re .500 and a play-in team. Gobert will be out a few games I’m sure. They are going to start to slide. I don’t think we will end up with like a top-7 pick from them but a top-12 pick is certainly within reason.

I think the best reasonable hope is they are in the 9/10 game play in and lose or lose in the second play in game. I doubt they fall all the way out of the play in. Suns may end up falling too far... OKC will load manage at some point (maybe not though)... Lakers schedule gets tough... Porty isn't lighting the world on fire right now.

 

[HermanG]

I didn’t say they would surge… I said they’d be .500 ish… which is good enough to be a play in team. That was the debate… to sink below the play in Ant will need to miss time or Rudy and Kat struggle to get healthy for longer than anticipated.

But .500 means they beat that schedule. It means they play better against that schedule than they did against the easier one that lead them to 22-23. I dont see the logic. Its definitely not the best we can hope for... its 3 wins more than Vegas gives them.

I think they might actually finish around 38-44. I tried looking at their games to see which ones they likely win and I can find 10.. while I find 15 they will likely lose. And the other 12 games are cointosses in my mind (including them coming to Utah for one more taste of Kessler).

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

But .500 means they beat that schedule. It means they play better against that schedule than they did against the easier one that lead them to 22-23. I dont see the logic. Its definitely not the best we can hope for... its 3 wins more than Vegas gives them.

I think they might actually finish around 38-44. I tried looking at their games to see which ones they likely win and I can find 10.. while I find 15 they will likely lose. And the other 12 games are cointosses in my mind (including them coming to Utah for one more taste of Kessler).

But .500- ish means they will be around .500 the rest of the season. Vegas projections are nice but they will always skew lower... it only takes one thing going wrong to hit the under (one injury for example) and it takes a few things going right to hit the over. So they will set the projections a bit lower. 38-44 may be good enough to make the play in... that is the debate... I doubt they fall out of the play in race without an injury. You also don't know if Vegas projects a star will miss 3-4 games in their projections. It would make sense no?

Also counting wins and losses is cute... pre-season if we had Phoenix on the schedule during the next week or two you'd count two Ls... but now you'd look and say those are surely Ws. All I am saying is SOS is not what I would bank on here as it can deceive. If Ant misses 5-10 games they fall out of the play in is more of a sure thing to bet on than just SOS. Just because the schedule looks hard it doesn't mean they are a sure thing to fall.

 

[sip]

I think the best reasonable hope is they are in the 9/10 game play in and lose or lose in the second play in game. I doubt they fall all the way out of the play in. Suns may end up falling too far... OKC will load manage at some point (maybe not though)... Lakers schedule gets tough... Porty isn't lighting the world on fire right now.

As soon as the suns get healthy they will get on a pretty good roll. With the thunder I would be shocked if they load manage. That would piss off SGA big time and Giddey is turning into a beast. Then you have the lakers about to get AD back but who the heck knows for how long. Hopefully long enough to get firmly in the playoff picture so we don't have to worry about the pelicans hitting gold in the lottery. Portland had the most road heavy schedule in the nba the first half of the season so now they have the most home heavy. They are also getting their bench back with Payton and Little now playing and Winslow should be back soon as well. This second half of the season should be fun with more teams in the playoff picture than ever before and a lot of them having no incentive tank with either not having a pick or older win now stars.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

As soon as the suns get healthy they will get on a pretty good roll. With the thunder I would be shocked if they load manage. That would piss off SGA big time and Giddey is turning into a beast. Then you have the lakers about to get AD back but who the heck knows for how long. Hopefully long enough to get firmly in the playoff picture so we don't have to worry about the pelicans hitting gold in the lottery. Portland had the most road heavy schedule in the nba the first half of the season so now they have the most home heavy. They are also getting their bench back with Payton and Little now playing and Winslow should be back soon as well. This second half of the season should be fun with more teams in the playoff picture than ever before and a lot of them having no incentive tank with either not having a pick or older win now stars.

And I get that... but if we paint rosy colored scenarios for those teams we should do it with Minny too... they will get Kat back... they have had issues with Rudy and other out of the lineup - Prince, Slo-Mo, JMac, Naz... they could do a DLo deal that is addition by subtraction.

The Suns may not get healthy. Book came back early and got hurt again. They free fall for another 3 weeks and I am not sure Book can get to 100% fast enough. They also may not be able to make a move because of new ownership coming in.

All I am saying is banking on a tough schedule to cause the twolves to miss the play in is a bit ambitious... it will take more than a tough schedule.

 

[HermanG]

And I get that... but if we paint rosy colored scenarios for those teams we should do it with Minny too... they will get Kat back... they have had issues with Rudy and other out of the lineup - Prince, Slo-Mo, JMac, Naz... they could do a DLo deal that is addition by subtraction.

The Suns may not get healthy. Book came back early and got hurt again. They free fall for another 3 weeks and I am not sure Book can get to 100% fast enough. They also may not be able to make a move because of new ownership coming in.

All I am saying is banking on a tough schedule to cause the twolves to miss the play in is a bit ambitious... it will take more than a tough schedule.

It takes a bad team with a tough schedule.

Check and check.

And KAT coming back isnt exactly the solution. They are 10-11 with KAT against easier schedule than their 12-12 without him. It makes the fit worse and whatever they gain on offense with KAT they lose on defense with McDaniels being out due to KAT being in.

 

[Elizah Huge]

It takes a bad team with a tough schedule.

Check and check.

And KAT coming back isnt exactly the solution. They are 10-11 with KAT against easier schedule than their 12-12 without him. It makes the fit worse and whatever they gain on offense with KAT they lose on defense with McDaniels being out due to KAT being in.

I just don’t trust them to be good in any scenario. I literally think their ceiling this year is .500.

 

[sip]

And I get that... but if we paint rosy colored scenarios for those teams we should do it with Minny too... they will get Kat back... they have had issues with Rudy and other out of the lineup - Prince, Slo-Mo, JMac, Naz... they could do a DLo deal that is addition by subtraction.

The Suns may not get healthy. Book came back early and got hurt again. They free fall for another 3 weeks and I am not sure Book can get to 100% fast enough. They also may not be able to make a move because of new ownership coming in.

All I am saying is banking on a tough schedule to cause the twolves to miss the play in is a bit ambitious... it will take more than a tough schedule.

I agree completely when it comes to the wolves as well. I'm not in the camp that they suck like a lot of posters on this board. They have pretty much had most things go wrong yet they are still sitting right around .500. It wouldn't shock me at all to see them go on a run and get into that 4-8 range come playoff time.

 

[sip]

I just don’t trust them to be good in any scenario. I literally think their ceiling this year is .500.

Well they have had most things go wrong this year and they are still sitting right around .500.

 

[Elizah Huge]

Well they have had most things go wrong this year and they are still sitting right around .500.

They are 10-11 with KAT. What has gone wrong besides him getting injured? They went 4-2 without Gobert.

 

[HermanG]

I just don’t trust them to be good in any scenario. I literally think their ceiling this year is .500.

Ceiling.. I agree. Expected level .450 maybe?

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

It takes a bad team with a tough schedule.

Check and check.

And KAT coming back isnt exactly the solution. They are 10-11 with KAT against easier schedule than their 12-12 without him. It makes the fit worse and whatever they gain on offense with KAT they lose on defense with McDaniels being out due to KAT being in.

In a small sample its easy to show how a team is better/worse with a guy. I think the KAT/Rudy splits were actually pretty good. The rest of the team and Rudy have adjusted... there may be a period of re-acclimation for sure. I don't see adding that guy as a big negative though.

We also just flat out don't know how hard their schedule will be, because so much depends on who is available when they come to town. They have a few more road games than home... which is good cuz they *** on the road... but I think mere SOS and counting W/L can be a bit misleading. They just had three home games against Denver, Portland, Clips... I would have said Denver is a loss the other two are 50/50 games... they won all three. End of season they may have some tough teams that are locked in (or out) of the playoffs and have checked out too. They play a team like Sacramento 4 times... what if Sabonis sustains an injury? Well that's 4 games that can turn.

So SOS to me... is one factor... but you can also get some schedule luck with injuries that is unpredictable. I wouldn't guess they make the top 6... I also wouldn't guess they miss the play in completely (the bar is really low... SA or NO made it with like 34 wins irrc) unless they have an injury to Ant. As it stands with normal health I think they have a 70% ish chance to be a play in team.