Predict the Rudy Gobert trade

[Handlogten's Heros]

I don't know how you can reasonably think the pick is more likely to be conveyed (OKC receives the pick) if we tanked right now versus next offseason. I see the concern about not trading him in the offseason....but at the deadline instead. Very strange scenario, but I'd be pretty confident that you could get into the bottom 10 if it falls out at that point time. If you tank now, you're losing that pick unless you're bad for 4 consecutive years. You're almost guaranteed to lose that pick unless things go horribly wrong. If you waited a year, your chances of keeping that pick are much greater.

I'm not really letting this protected pick dictate my thinking, but if you are, you should not be proponent of tanking now.

I'm not going to let it dictate my thinking either... but its easy to see the scenario where we don't trade Donovan until the trade deadline of the 23-24 season. Say we don't move Rudy this offseason. You move Don to PG and maybe it all works okay... but you then say "what if we do trade Rudy... we could be more modern and convince Don to stay". Then you retool... midseason it isn't working and you realize the trade needs to happen. Trading him with 1.5 season left or 2 playoff runs will net more than trading him with only 1 year left so you move him. Maybe you can still find the bottom 10 by then... mathematically I think you are right you are more likely to send that pick if you start tanking now... I'd just rather not give away a pick as you are headed into a rebuild. If you lost one on the backend I think its less devastating. You could also be right in the middle of the rebuild then and still get leapfrogged and it becomes somewhat devastating.

The biggest value in tanking now is all your trades face the same direction and you also have more opportunity to find an actual deal. Trading vets for other win now vets that are younger... are trades that don't happen all that much.

 

[KqWIN]

I'm not going to let it dictate my thinking either... but its easy to see the scenario where we don't trade Donovan until the trade deadline of the 23-24 season. Say we don't move Rudy this offseason. You move Don to PG and maybe it all works okay... but you then say "what if we do trade Rudy... we could be more modern and convince Don to stay". Then you retool... midseason it isn't working and you realize the trade needs to happen. Trading him with 1.5 season left or 2 playoff runs will net more than trading him with only 1 year left so you move him. Maybe you can still find the bottom 10 by then... mathematically I think you are right you are more likely to send that pick if you start tanking now... I'd just rather not give away a pick as you are headed into a rebuild. If you lost one on the backend I think its less devastating. You could also be right in the middle of the rebuild then and still get leapfrogged and it becomes somewhat devastating.

The biggest value in tanking now is all your trades face the same direction and you also have more opportunity to find an actual deal. Trading vets for other win now vets that are younger... are trades that don't happen all that much.

Let's look at those scenario's where Don is traded at the 23/24 deadline as it relates to the protected pick. Either 1) Don has demanded a trade in the offseason and we're dragging out the trade negotiation AD style or 2) the trade demand came mid season. In the first scenario, I think it's pretty safe that we find the bottom 10 because you just sit Don. In the second, you're talking about Don demanding out of a Jazz team that is too good that we can't find a way to miss the play in. Seems unlikely, but however likely you find these scenarios, it's not as if the alternative increases your chances of keeping the pick. The only way to keep the pick if you start tanking now is if we are in the bottom 8/10 for four years in a row. There is a 100% overlap with the alternative of waiting to tank. If the tank takes four years, you get the pick whether you tank now or later. You only get added probability by waiting. You may think that the pick is a lost cause so you might as well tank now, but I can't conjure up a scenario where tanking now creates more probability of keeping the pick.

But like I said, this isn't what drives my thinking. I don't see how tanking now increases the opportunity to find a deal. One of the reasons why I'm in favor of waiting is because tanking now by definition limits time the window in which you make trades, and that limits the negotiation....but I'm not going to reignite that discussion. When it comes to the implications of the protected pick, there's no question that it is more favorable to wait.

 

[stitches]

I don't know how you can reasonably think the pick is more likely to be conveyed (OKC receives the pick) if we tanked right now versus next offseason. I see the concern about not trading him in the offseason....but at the deadline instead. Very strange scenario, but I'd be pretty confident that you could get into the bottom 10 if it falls out at that point time. If you tank now, you're losing that pick unless you're bad for 4 consecutive years. You're almost guaranteed to lose that pick unless things go horribly wrong. If you waited a year, your chances of keeping that pick are much greater.

I'm not really letting this protected pick dictate my thinking, but if you are, you should not be proponent of tanking now.

I guess we have several questions to answer here in order to determine if we want to tank now or later:
1. Are we good with wasting one more year in limbo than we need to? What's the value of that one year?
2. Does the higher likelyhood we lose one of the picks to OKC if we tank now cover for the potential loss of value by letting one more year pass - for example - do we get better value for Mitchell this year or next when he will be able to much more reliably threaten teams away from bidding for him? Do we get better value if we trade Gobert now for future value than win now pieces? And if we are keeping Gobert to try to contend again - are we getting better value for him now, or next year?
3. What if we convince ourselves that we can keep being competitive and actually keep Mitchell past next year? Then you almost certainly lose the pick in 2024.

 

[whatthe]

Gobert's Twitter and Instagram doesn't have Jazz references anymore. It is looking like it is happening. We won't get a better center, it is depressing but I understand that change is needed. If he goes to Chicago or Atlanta he will do well.

 

[LoPo]

Gobert's Twitter and Instagram doesn't have Jazz references anymore. It is looking like it is happening. We won't get a better center, it is depressing but I understand that change is needed. If he goes to Chicago or Atlanta he will do well.

Wow. Must be happening soon. He must have asked the FO if the rumors were true and they must have confirmed them.

I wish him the best. We really did him and Don wrong by not building better around them. It will always be one of those "what if" situations. I 100% blame the Conley trade and always will.

Sent from my SM-A516U using JazzFanz mobile app

 

[LogGrad98]

Wow. Must be happening soon. He must have asked the FO if the rumors were true and they must have confirmed them.

I wish him the best. We really did him and Don wrong by not building better around them. It will always be one of those "what if" situations. I 100% blame the Conley trade and always will.

Sent from my SM-A516U using JazzFanz mobile app

The Conley trade was the biggest whiff in recent memory. So many better options. So much spent on a guy that was never what he was billed as in the first place. So many games and playoff series lost to injuries. So much wasted potential in those assets. Really a travesty for the team. Good that we dropped the folks that set that **** up, but it is now too little too late. We are going into a tailspin and then rebuild. And we keep loping along on the treadmill of mediocrity.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Gobert's Twitter and Instagram doesn't have Jazz references anymore. It is looking like it is happening. We won't get a better center, it is depressing but I understand that change is needed. If he goes to Chicago or Atlanta he will do well.

His banner is him in a jazz jersey...

 

[slc]

What about every body else's twitter and instagram
Any changes to them?

 

[LoPo]

The Conley trade was the biggest whiff in recent memory. So many better options. So much spent on a guy that was never what he was billed as in the first place. So many games and playoff series lost to injuries. So much wasted potential in those assets. Really a travesty for the team. Good that we dropped the folks that set that **** up, but it is now too little too late. We are going into a tailspin and then rebuild. And we keep loping along on the treadmill of mediocrity.

It is truly unfortunate how the Conley trade played out. He's such a good dude. The trade just looks that much worse since we also whiffed on the Favors deal, the Gay deal and pretty much both drafts since we added Mike.

As for Rudy, I hope he gets to play with a true facilitating PG. I'm not a Trae fan, but they could be great together. A healthy Lonzo would look good with Rudy too.

I have a lot of faith in Donovan. I think he is a budding superstar. Sometimes, styles just don't mesh well and I think that was the case with Rudy. Nothing against either of them. I hope we build a fun project that new young guys will buy into. A complete teardown could hurt us for many years.

Sent from my SM-A516U using JazzFanz mobile app

 

[whatthe]

His banner is him in a jazz jersey...

My fault. I was trusting a talk show...geez.

 

[The Fresh Prince]

Monty Show is saying a deal is close to being done with Chicago. Question is who are we getting outside of Vuc?

Hopefully we are getting Patrick Williams.

If we get Vuc we need to bring Whiteside back for rim protection.

 

[Ineptimusprime]

From a roster drama perspective, how can the Jazz keep Rudy rolling into next season and not have it be the biggest cluster of a roster dynamic ever?

The Jazz have very publicly chosen Don over Rudy and have spent the last two months discussing Rudy trades. By contrast, Rudy has done nothing over the course of his career but express loyalty to Utah, anchor a defense, and be 3x DPOY and All-Star. If I’m Rudy, the Jazz have very publicly spit in my face this offseason, and I’m just supposed to come back to the same already-dysfunctional locker room and play nice with everyone? No ****ing way, right? Totally untenable, right?

I would have probably traded both Don and Rudy after this season for the biggest haul of young players and picks I could. Here would have been my order of preference:

1. Acknowledge reality and press reset with trades of basically all the vets on the roster.
2. publicly announce you are keeping Don and Rudy but try to trade literally everyone else around them. Give it one more year of the ‘OL college try around Don and Rudy and blow it up next year if it doesn’t work.
3. Trade Don since he isn’t long for SLC anyway for a huge haul of picks and pieces to build around Gobert.
4. Trade Rudy and keep Don and explore the Donny and friends roster.
5. Publicly choose Don over Rudy but then somehow bring Rudy back when we couldn’t get 4 FRPs and a “star” in the deal.

I have no faith in management right now after whiffing the rebrand and because their instincts seem to be the exact opposite of mine. It seems like their objective is more to try to make the Jazz and Utah “cool” than it is to make them a title contender. But the “Provo All-Star” definition of “cool” is highlighter yellow jerseys and worrying about Don being “mayor of SLC” during All-Star weekend. That **** ain’t cool.