Rest Easy, The Jazz Will Be Awful

[Handlogten's Heros]

We are going to win 26 games. The schedule being tough early is going to crush our spirits (sadly, I would like to see the team actually be competitive in losses,but I don't think that's going to happen. It's going to be blowout city unless Markkannen is Findland Markkannen)

Our vets aren't even that good and we have incredible tanking lineup potential. We also have no top tier talent like other tanking teams who will just rip off huge games.

The fact that we have vets is the problem. They are just fine. Sexton, Lauri, Beasley, Vando are young but closer to established vets than the talented prospects other tanking teams are rolling with. Not that those guys are amazing but they are capable of getting an efficient 30 any given night.

Also, 26 wins lands you 4th at best 7th at worst... most likely lands you at 6th. Win one or two extra from that number you stated and you could be 7th or 8th... and for what purpose? Culture... those 3-4 extra wins ain't helping no one. The margins are so razor thin.

Early season being hard is a two edged sword. Means we likely don't make a move to push for wins to make a play-in push... but also means we will meet the tankiest of tanky lineups late in the season and we may not be able to rise (lower) to the occasion.

We still may hit bottom 4 but it will be luck (bad luck) if we get there. Either injuries or trades could change things. If we had traded Bogey for no NBA players I'd feel much better... fact that we got a competent vet at our biggest position of need is easily a 3-4 game swing.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

The fact that we have vets is the problem. They are just fine. Sexton, Lauri, Beasley, Vando are young but closer to established vets than the talented prospects other tanking teams are rolling with. Not that those guys are amazing but they are capable of getting an efficient 30 any given night.

Also, 26 wins lands you 4th at best 7th at worst... most likely lands you at 6th. Win one or two extra from that number you stated and you could be 7th or 8th... and for what purpose? Culture... those 3-4 extra wins ain't helping no one. The margins are so razor thin.

Early season being hard is a two edged sword. Means we likely don't make a move to push for wins to make a play-in push... but also means we will meet the tankiest of tanky lineups late in the season and we may not be able to rise (lower) to the occasion.

We still may hit bottom 4 but it will be luck (bad luck) if we get there. Either injuries or trades could change things. If we had traded Bogey for no NBA players I'd feel much better... fact that we got a competent vet at our biggest position of need is easily a 3-4 game swing.

I dont think wins/losses matter for culture, but I think +/- might. I think that's an important distinction that doesnt get talked about enough.

Obviously the goal is to lose, but you dont want to be getting blown out every night. I dont think we are bottom 3, but I think we are safely bottom 5.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

What we’re missing is young players who will play 1300+ minutes that stink. There’s no Poku on this team, for example. We do have players that bad, but there are 2-3 guys ahead of them. The recipe to having a bad team is to have young players who are promising enough to get minutes, but young enough that you still won’t win.

HOU, for example, is probably going to be worse than us even though they have so much more young talent. That young talent isn’t at a stage where they can win games.

Even if the Jazz are limiting minutes for the Vets, there’s so many of them. Olynyk, Vando, Lauri, Beasley, Sexton, Clarkson, Conley are all getting 1k+ minutes. Some of them will probably play closer to 2k and most of them near 1.5k minutes. THT would be a great rank commander, but he’ll barely get on the floor.

It’s easier to do the bottom out thing when all your talent resides in SGA….You sit him, then the team is instantly horrible. But the Jazz have a deep team of mediocre players.

These are the teams that are in a better tanking situation IMO:

SAS
OKC
HOU
IND

The only other teams with <30 over/under wins are DET and ORL. I think we finish ahead of one and below the other. Both teams probably want to win more, but they have better tank commanders.

So whatever the win total is…I think we’re sitting at the 6th best lottery odds.

Damn... we agree... holy ****... we agree. Means that we are both likely wrong right?

Exactly this. Jalen Green is a great talent. You tell me I have to add Green or Sexton to an NBA team for one night and if they lose I lose a finger... imma take Sexton all day. SA has a handful of choices for this award... OKC can play Mann, Poku, Bazley, etc. Indiana has like 4-5 good nba players and at any moment they could trade 2 for no returning players. Orlando and Detroit should be better than us... then there are a handful of teams one injury away from joining the tank race.

If I had to guess right now we land 5th because either Hardy gets the mandate to rest vets or they make a trade. People forget that in addition to benching SGA and having Dort out with Giddey... that OKC also had to rest/shut down guys like Kenny Hustle and Muscala... and I think they ended up at 24 wins.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

I dont think wins/losses matter for culture, but I think +/- might. I think that's an important distinction that doesnt get talked about enough.

Obviously the goal is to lose, but you dont want to be getting blown out every night. I dont think we are bottom 3, but I think we are safely bottom 5.

Difference between bottom 3 and bottom 5 when it comes to getting a top 5 pick is pretty sharp doe... Basically go from 70% chance at top 5 to 37%... +/- matters less than top tier talent when it comes to winning culture. Those 3-4 extra wins from having competent players and depth are costly so that culture better be amazing.

Houston will run they young guys 30+ minutes a night... currently Ochai is garbage time status... just saying.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Difference between bottom 3 and bottom 5 when it comes to getting a top 5 pick is pretty sharp doe... Basically go from 70% chance at top 5 to 37%... +/- matters less than top tier talent when it comes to winning culture. Those 3-4 extra wins from having competent players and depth are costly so that culture better be amazing.

Houston will run they young guys 30+ minutes a night... currently Ochai is garbage time status... just saying.

Even if Utah got rid of all the non possible future vets (Clarkson/Conley/KO (though I think he could be part of the future)/Gay) we are still better than the Spurs/Thunder and still probably better than the Rockets.

I would like to have the worst record of course, but the most important target to hit is bottom 5 for the 17% chance (I think that's right) for Victor.

 

[KqWIN]

The difference in getting a top 4 pick from the worst record vs the 6th best record is 52% compared to 37%. The max percentage chance at Vic is 14%.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

The difference in getting a top 4 pick from the worst record vs the 6th best record is 52% compared to 37%. The max percentage chance at Vic is 14%.

I think the floor is also very important though as bottom 3-4 you are pretty likely to land top 5. At 4 its 60% chance at top 5 and 85% chance at top 6. You land 6 and 55%+ chance at 7th or later.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Even if Utah got rid of all the non possible future vets (Clarkson/Conley/KO (though I think he could be part of the future)/Gay) we are still better than the Spurs/Thunder and still probably better than the Rockets.

I would like to have the worst record of course, but the most important target to hit is bottom 5 for the 17% chance (I think that's right) for Victor.

The guy who doesn't know the numbers says "rest easy... we are fine".

I think those teams should be worse than us in most situations. But if you are playing Kessler/Doke at center for 36-40 minutes you might just out tank them. Thats where KO's minutes hurt. Indiana will likely out tank us... then just one team needs to have an early injury and you are now 5-6.

I think a good comp for us is the Beal-less Wiz... they went 18-24 without Beal... Kuzma, KCP, Deni, some Zinger and Dinwiddie. A stretch like that and you end up with 82 games of pain for the 7th/8th pick... wahoo culture!!!!

 

[KqWIN]

I think the floor is also very important though as bottom 3-4 you are pretty likely to land top 5. At 4 its 60% chance at top 5 and 85% chance at top 6. You land 6 and 55%+ chance at 7th or later.

Yeah....but then it's the difference between 5 and 7/8 or whatever. The flattened odds did make it more of a lottery, but I still don't care to watch Olynyk and Conley lead us to 5 more wins at that cost. Honestly, I'd rather have those two spots filled in by rotating G-League guys.

I actually think the Jazz are somewhat similar to the Grizzlies now that I think about it. We half a playoff team just like they did. They just happened to jump from #8 to #2 and the #2 pick happened to be Ja Morant. Praying on a miracle, otherwise you are the Wizards/Kings/Knicks.

 

[Ferguson_Mellochill]

Another Teardown: Atlanta Hawks

The Hawks were a 5th seed in the Eastern Conference in 2016/17 with 43 wins. It was the end of the Millsap/Korver era, after which the Hawks decided to blow things up. In 2017/18, the Hawks were projected to win 27 games, but finished last in the EC with 24 wins. They ended up with the 3rd pick in the draft and traded back with Dallas to swap Luka Doncic for Trae Young. Later in the first round, they drafted Kevin Huerter. The following season, the Hawks finished with 28 wins and traded with the Pelicans in the draft to move up from #8 to #4 for Deandre Hunter.

2017 Draft
John Collins (#19)

2018 Draft
Trae Young (#3)
Kevin Huerter (#19)

2019 Draft
Deandre Hunter (#4)
Cam Reddish (#10)

2020 Draft
Onyeka Okongwu (#6)

FWIW, the Jazz should be in a better position than the Hawks since the Jazz have a pile of assets from trading their All Stars, which the Hawks didn't have.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Yeah....but then it's the difference between 5 and 7/8 or whatever. The flattened odds did make it more of a lottery, but I still don't care to watch Olynyk and Conley lead us to 5 more wins at that cost. Honestly, I'd rather have those two spots filled in by rotating G-League guys.

I actually think the Jazz are somewhat similar to the Grizzlies now that I think about it. We half a playoff team just like they did. They just happened to jump from #8 to #2 and the #2 pick happened to be Ja Morant. Praying on a miracle, otherwise you are the Wizards/Kings/Knicks.

Maybe so. I don't think you have to be the Wiz Kings Knicks if you don't get a miracle. I think you can be Dallas, Atlanta, Memphis, Phoenix too.

All roads lead to failure... and all roads lead to success. I think we give ourselves the best chance at success by drafting top 5 the next two years combined with the future picks and youngish talent... I think we could make trades to jump past the Kings, Knicks, and Wiz by this year or next if we wanted.

You have to have some things lucky things go in your favor fo sho.

 

[framer]

As far as culture goes, I don't think it is wise to throw a bunch of 22 year olds out there to fumble around and hope they lose. You need to play functional basketball and need players on the team that can run an offense or anchor a defense, even if they aren't top drawer. You aren't developing anyone losing by 20 every night. And if you have a potential star, you are just wasting their potential and years under control.

What do you think Donovan or Rudy look like if they had been drafted by the Kings? SGA is going to fall short of his potential with his misadventures in OKC. He's also going to bail at his first opportunity.

Rebuilding is a lot harder than just racing to the bottom, even the teams that do that don't have a great record of success.