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Rest Easy, The Jazz Will Be Awful

Elizah Huge said:
Not doing the Phoenix trade was such a bad idea from the front office.
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Just so we're clear:

Crowder, Shamet and top 25 protected for Bogey and Vando? (I don't Suns think wanted to get rid of both Crowder AND Saric -- the presumption on our part that Saric rather than Shamet was in the offer is just our presumption, I think).

Or do you mean the one where (presumably) we wait and get the same package without Vando?
 
idiot said:
Just so we're clear:

Crowder, Shamet and top 25 protected for Bogey and Vando? (I don't Suns think wanted to get rid of both Crowder AND Saric -- the presumption on our part that Saric rather than Shamet was in the offer is just our presumption, I think).

Or do you mean the one where (presumably) we wait and get the same package without Vando?
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I believe it was Saric which is part of the reason to include Vando. Top 25 has been reported but you wait a week and they may come in at top 20 or lotto. Jazz didn’t want additional salary.
 
The other deal would have been Bogey for Duncan Robinson and a pick. I think KO is a better fit for the roster… which makes it a worse tank trade.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
I believe it was Saric which is part of the reason to include Vando. Top 25 has been reported but you wait a week and they may come in at top 20 or lotto. Jazz didn’t want additional salary.
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Also in this scenario I assume we can flip
Crowder to Memphis for Green and at least one second rounder… likely two.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
I believe it was Saric which is part of the reason to include Vando. Top 25 has been reported but you wait a week and they may come in at top 20 or lotto. Jazz didn’t want additional salary.
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Could be right with the Vando inclusion. But without, I think it definitely was Shamet. Nothing I've seen out of Phoenix makes me think they were considering moving Saric, and there's a whole bunch that makes me think they would have easily moved Shamet.
 
idiot said:
Could be right with the Vando inclusion. But without, I think it definitely was Shamet. Nothing I've seen out of Phoenix makes me think they were considering moving Saric, and there's a whole bunch that makes me think they would have easily moved Shamet.
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Here is how I think it went...

Jazz - we want Saric and Crowder and a first for Bogey.

Suns - Not sure about that... how about Bogey and Vando and a top 25 protected pick for Saric and Crowder?

Jazz - No thanks we aren't trading Vando.

Obviously more to it than that but I don't think there was a shamet version that Phoenix was pushing where they'd pull vando off the table and give a first. I think we kinda said Vando ain't available in this deal peace out.

I honestly think you wait em out a bit - they haven't found a Crowder deal yet... I'm guessing the best offer they have is Green and seconds... but unless they can flip that for a player it doesn't help them this year. I think if the Jazz were seriously willing to consider trading Vando there would be a back and forth there. I think they shut it down declaring him too valuable for this. Honestly that is 1.50 on the dollar for what they were getting... and I get that... but its the best deal that would fit what should be our goals for the year.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
I'm pretty irked that we likely should have sold Bogey off to Phoenix with Vando for that pick and salary. Vet trades actually gonna get cheaper as the season goes on. Gonna be a couple teams join the tank race and excess sellers. I know the pick was top 25 protected but I promise they'd slide that down.

Also, the stuff like OKC shutting down a healthy Horford will not fly this year. Too many teams will complain and the league will step in. Load management and extending rehab for injuries will be okay but there will be so much finger pointing when teams try to do fake nonsense.

Just trade some some guys for a pile of seconds and cap space. Hold your nose and lose a trade or two... just lose them in the right way.
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I actually don't think they would have slid the protection down. I feel like Danny would have waited out the first if it were truly available. Phoenix wanted to trade out their unwanted stuff an get 2 great players for a couple of seconds. Phoenix knows things are likely to get rough this year, there is no way they are offering a real pick for an expiring contract.
 
If you can't get a pick, the next best thing is a good player on a great contract. Olynyk and Vando match that criteria. Crowder does not, nor does Shamet.
 
framer said:
If you can't get a pick, the next best thing is a good player on a great contract. Olynyk and Vando match that criteria. Crowder does not, nor does Shamet.
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Or you could move those players for the seconds or in other deals to ensure you end up bottom 4 or 5. If KO and Vando help us win 5 additional games a year each of the next two years that is not great for the lotto odds we want.

If you ended up getting the equivalent of 3-4 second round picks and improved your lotto odds by 50% that's a deal that fits our primary purpose for this season.
 
Based on SCHOENE player projections and RAPM, ESPN projects the Jazz to be 12th in the west with 34.9 wins. There are 5 teams with worse projections than the Jazz in the NBA.
www.espn.com

NBA stats-based win projections: Why one model has the Warriors fighting for a playoff spot

ESPN NBA Insider Kevin Pelton unveils his annual win projections for all 30 teams -- with plenty of surprises up and down the list.
www.espn.com www.espn.com

I really wish we could move at least Conley. IMO he's still a winning regular season player and will raise our floor if he stays the whole season.
 
Yeah I feel like they already committed to the "tank" when they dealt the difference makers from last year.

It would be malpractice to win too many games on the backs of veterans like Conley and miss out on the best chance to secure a bottom 3 record. It's something a treadmill team like Knicks seem to do every season.
 
Jingled said:

View: https://twitter.com/MarkDeeksNBA/status/1578051255133429764

View: https://twitter.com/MarkDeeksNBA/status/1578053420543578113
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There is no honor in tanking... there is also a big potential reward. The honor gained by winning 29 games instead of 23 will not bring a big reward.

I'm just not sure there is a deal at this point that does what we need. Not sure the Lakers would do Mike/JC/NAW or Gay straight up for Russ. Indiana may not change their tune but the only big move is going to be Russ related.

I think we could offload JC... Might even be able to talk Indiana (who is so weird about this stuff) into taking JC into their excess cap space. Two birds with one stone. Might be able to do a Phx deal with JC or Mike.

Hopefully we take a bunch of lumps the first 20 games and a vet trade opportunity manifests itself. Right now I don't see any that aren't obvious we are dumping talent for nothing type of deals and they have said/proven they aren't on board with those.
 
stitches said:
Based on SCHOENE player projections and RAPM, ESPN projects the Jazz to be 12th in the west with 34.9 wins. There are 5 teams with worse projections than the Jazz in the NBA.
www.espn.com

NBA stats-based win projections: Why one model has the Warriors fighting for a playoff spot

ESPN NBA Insider Kevin Pelton unveils his annual win projections for all 30 teams -- with plenty of surprises up and down the list.
www.espn.com www.espn.com

I really wish we could move at least Conley. IMO he's still a winning regular season player and will raise our floor if he stays the whole season.
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I expect the models to all have us between 33-40 wins. Models aren't perfect, and we have certain players that I feel get overrated on paper, but if we're aiming for a top two pick we need to be around 20 wins. There's a massive gap between what we "need" to be at for a top pick and the talent of this group.

I think it will be especially hard to tank because 1) our talent is spread out between 7+ guys and 2) we don't have a young prospect that demands time. It's easy for OKC, for example, to get really bad really quick because they can bench SGA and voila, they're a terrible team. The Jazz would have to bench 3-4 guys to have the same effect. It's easier to artificially be bad if you can do so by benching a smaller subset of players. We also don't have that Jalen Green type prospect, who's very promising but doesn't help you win games and plays a lot of minutes. The Rockets are stacked with these guys. They are promising enough to get time but not good enough yet to win games. The Jazz have a different situation where we have a ton of youngish guys who are young enough to keep investing in, but also have matured enough to produce winning basketball to some extent. Even if we bench Conley, Clarkson, Olynyk....I don't see us benching Vando, Lauri, Sexton, Beasley etc a ton.
 
I side on the full tank mode for 2023 at least, perhaps 2024 as well (next years draft could also be juicy/deep given the add'l prospects entering given eligibility rule changes).

We can easily tweak the roster to become competitive in 1-2 years. One year of absolutely sucking for strategic purposes does not mean we are automatically a loser franchise. That logic is highly flawed.
 
The Jazz have exactly two players who can move the ball, Conley and Olynyk. You remove one or both of them, the offense stagnates completely. Both will need load managing throughout the season, maybe game to game.

It becomes obvious that the current back ups at point are NAW and TNT and both are gonna get work. And either one or both learn something, which would be monumental, or we suck. The only other option is to roll out Butler who may not even be on the team.

If the Jazz were to offload Conley, we would be straight summer league as he is the cog that makes things go. The drop off between him and NAW is pretty spectacular. As long as we are losing I would prefer to have Conley to develop the other players. If things get too good, we can go to NAW ball which is good for the tank, but I don't want to watch.
 
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No there isn’t
 
Bawse Dawg said:
JNimdd0.jpg


No there isn’t
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I'm over the talk about how you can't build a winning culture and also have two seasons were your record is awful... whether through tanking or rebuilding. Spurs tanked and won what like 4 titles. Warriors tanked a couple years ago as well as the year that they got Barnes. It yielded some benefits and they didn't magically have some toxic culture.

Part of what TJ is getting at is true. Like you want players to play hard and try to win. That is why tanking is not the coach's job... its the FO job. And it would be legitimately difficult to drop into the bottom 4. But at very least we should make a move or two that ensure we are #5. Maybe with some luck you can get to #4. If SGA is healthy OKC could jump us... and there will be like 6-7 teams eyeballing the OKC injury report for tomfoolery.
 
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