The *OFFICIAL* Russia Is About To Invade Ukraine Thread

[stitches]

As much as I want Putin gone/dead, it's worth pondering how much of a certainty we have that the current alternatives in the theatre of Russian politics will be any better/much different. In fact, the overwhelming likelihood is that the next guy will be another GRU/FSB agent with similar understanding/viewpoint on the world around them. Keep in mind that Putin has been supressing any legitimate political opposition for decades and the media environment is steeped into Klemlin propaganda. Meaning (ignoring a coup which by default will introduce another intelligence/security services type of leader)... even if you have COMPLETELY FREE AND FAIR elections tomorrow(highly unlikely this is possible) the outcome of the election will favor a political actor with similar... or maybe even worse political views simply because the public has been primed and conditioned for decades to like that type of rhetoric and discourse. Pro-Western type of polititian who wants cooperation and bridging with the EU/US is doomed. Majority of Russians don't trust the West and don't really like Western values.

 

[JimLes]

The person to replace Putin isn't going to be much different than Putin, but that's not the point. We know what the most likely scenario here is because we've seen it play out many, many times around the world.

The war will likely grind down to some kind of a stalemate. Neither side is likely to accept a settled peace. At some point, the war will get unpopular in Russia. This is especially true if it gets to the point of young recruits being sent to Ukraine to be cannon fodder. The economy is only going to get worse, as well. Putin may die or become infirm, or he might be pushed aside and replaced. It doesn't really matter. He will be replaced by someone from his circle.

That person will have to continue Putin's policies, partly because their own position will be nowhere as strong as Putin's. The new guy will not have the benefit of 20 years of making himself and the state apparatus synonymous, but also because Putin has created this situation by design. There isn't an obvious #2 in Russia, because heir-apparents sometimes get sick of waiting and present a very real threat to you. Putin's replacement will also have to go through some internal struggles for power, which will again leave him weaker and open to attacks from both within and without the inner circle. He will be forced to continue the war because agreeing to a treaty would open him to accusations of treason and revisionism etc.

This guy will obviously not last long. He will then be replaced by someone from the outside of the inner circle, who regardless of his personal beliefs will be pragmatic enough to seek the end of the war. In exchange for lifting the sanctions, of course. By this time, it may well be 2026 and he may actually come to power through elections. United Russia is already a big tent party welded together by Putin's larger-than-life personality, and had fallen to under 50% of the popular vote as of last year. There will likely be a split after his death or removal based not so much on ideology but personal ambitions. Without an obvious number 2, there will be aggrieved parties who will believe they should've been his successor. In the infighting after Putin's demise, it will be easy for these people to find powerful sources of support. For example, I suspect that intelligence services and the army will throw their weight behind different people.

Again, because of a lack of a groomed successor, there will be a power vacuum in terms of a lack of cult of personality. No one likely to replace Putin will be Putin and command that kind of adulation and blind faith in him. The way these kinds of regimes work, even prominent allies and close confidants of Putin will likely be fall guys for him when the war starts going (really) bad. The incumbent who replaced Putin will be very unlikely to be able to pull off large-scale electoral fraud because they simply will not wield the same amount of power as Putin, nor will they have the unwavering loyalty of the entire state apparatus. This will make it possible for someone "new" to win the elections.

This someone, as mentioned, will be a pragmatist and an opportunist above all. It's not going to be anyone from the ranks of current enemies of the regime. It's definitely not going to be someone like Navalny. It will be someone who might have served as a minister or an ambassador during Putin's reign, but someone who didn't quite belong to the upper echelons of the regime. It's definitely not going to be someone like Lavrov or Shoigu. He will, at least, pay lip service to Russian nationalism, in order to make himself resistant to attacks from that side. He may even attack Putin's successor and others from United Russia who will be jostling for power by claiming they have somehow betrayed Putin and his legacy. He will of course be a master of telling everyone what they want to hear, so that he will simultaneously appear to be both for and against the war. He will also present himself as very empathetic to the suffering of regular people under the sanctions.

Once he wins, he'll be able to sign a peace treaty based on both war weariness in Russia, and his relative lack of war culpability in the eyes of the West and Ukraine. He will also have no personal and emotional investment in the war. He didn't start it and he didn't lose it. Ukraine and the West have no personal grudges against him, so they offer him a way to save face. Less likely, he keeps Crimea. More likely, Ukraine will agree to some kind of broad autonomy for eastern regions and near-official status for Russian language. Since symbolic gestures mean more than real power, you might even see a creation of a vice-presidential position in Ukraine which will by convention or law be filled by an ethnic Russian. The public opinion in Russia will be split between those who are against any peace treaty, those who are opposed specifically to this treaty but not opposed to the idea of a negotiated peace, and those who are sick enough of war, they'll take this.

Either way, there won't be enough support for a coup or anything like that to prevent the signing of the treaty. From then on, things can go in wildly different directions, but it's very unlikely there'd be a scenario where someone takes power and repudiates the treaty and starts another war.

 

[Deleted member 365]

The person to replace Putin isn't going to be much different than Putin, but that's not the point. We know what the most likely scenario here is because we've seen it play out many, many times around the world.

The war will likely grind down to some kind of a stalemate. Neither side is likely to accept a settled peace. At some point, the war will get unpopular in Russia. This is especially true if it gets to the point of young recruits being sent to Ukraine to be cannon fodder. The economy is only going to get worse, as well. Putin may die or become infirm, or he might be pushed aside and replaced. It doesn't really matter. He will be replaced by someone from his circle.

That person will have to continue Putin's policies, partly because their own position will be nowhere as strong as Putin's. The new guy will not have the benefit of 20 years of making himself and the state apparatus synonymous, but also because Putin has created this situation by design. There isn't an obvious #2 in Russia, because heir-apparents sometimes get sick of waiting and present a very real threat to you. Putin's replacement will also have to go through some internal struggles for power, which will again leave him weaker and open to attacks from both within and without the inner circle. He will be forced to continue the war because agreeing to a treaty would open him to accusations of treason and revisionism etc.

This guy will obviously not last long. He will then be replaced by someone from the outside of the inner circle, who regardless of his personal beliefs will be pragmatic enough to seek the end of the war. In exchange for lifting the sanctions, of course. By this time, it may well be 2026 and he may actually come to power through elections. United Russia is already a big tent party welded together by Putin's larger-than-life personality, and had fallen to under 50% of the popular vote as of last year. There will likely be a split after his death or removal based not so much on ideology but personal ambitions. Without an obvious number 2, there will be aggrieved parties who will believe they should've been his successor. In the infighting after Putin's demise, it will be easy for these people to find powerful sources of support. For example, I suspect that intelligence services and the army will throw their weight behind different people.

Again, because of a lack of a groomed successor, there will be a power vacuum in terms of a lack of cult of personality. No one likely to replace Putin will be Putin and command that kind of adulation and blind faith in him. The way these kinds of regimes work, even prominent allies and close confidants of Putin will likely be fall guys for him when the war starts going (really) bad. The incumbent who replaced Putin will be very unlikely to be able to pull off large-scale electoral fraud because they simply will not wield the same amount of power as Putin, nor will they have the unwavering loyalty of the entire state apparatus. This will make it possible for someone "new" to win the elections.

This someone, as mentioned, will be a pragmatist and an opportunist above all. It's not going to be anyone from the ranks of current enemies of the regime. It's definitely not going to be someone like Navalny. It will be someone who might have served as a minister or an ambassador during Putin's reign, but someone who didn't quite belong to the upper echelons of the regime. It's definitely not going to be someone like Lavrov or Shoigu. He will, at least, pay lip service to Russian nationalism, in order to make himself resistant to attacks from that side. He may even attack Putin's successor and others from United Russia who will be jostling for power by claiming they have somehow betrayed Putin and his legacy. He will of course be a master of telling everyone what they want to hear, so that he will simultaneously appear to be both for and against the war. He will also present himself as very empathetic to the suffering of regular people under the sanctions.

Once he wins, he'll be able to sign a peace treaty based on both war weariness in Russia, and his relative lack of war culpability in the eyes of the West and Ukraine. He will also have no personal and emotional investment in the war. He didn't start it and he didn't lose it. Ukraine and the West have no personal grudges against him, so they offer him a way to save face. Less likely, he keeps Crimea. More likely, Ukraine will agree to some kind of broad autonomy for eastern regions and near-official status for Russian language. Since symbolic gestures mean more than real power, you might even see a creation of a vice-presidential position in Ukraine which will by convention or law be filled by an ethnic Russian. The public opinion in Russia will be split between those who are against any peace treaty, those who are opposed specifically to this treaty but not opposed to the idea of a negotiated peace, and those who are sick enough of war, they'll take this.

Either way, there won't be enough support for a coup or anything like that to prevent the signing of the treaty. From then on, things can go in wildly different directions, but it's very unlikely there'd be a scenario where someone takes power and repudiates the treaty and starts another war.

Good post with one caveat; Republicans take control of Congress here in a few months and cut the aid.

 

[Deleted member 365]

Wait I thought NATO expansion was his whole reason for invading? Now it doesn’t matter?

View: https://twitter.com/dalperovitch/status/1526175012096548864?s=21&t=gp4BLF8z__3kmGCvGChW8g

 

[babe]

Good post with one caveat; Republicans take control of Congress here in a few months and cut the aid.

If it's Trumps team, the Ukrainians will get more help, not less. Even if Zelensky has used all his spare bribe money on Biden.

Look, here's Trump's point of view. His wife is from the Czeck Republic. Not really a Russia or USSR or Communist fan.

Trump the Chump actually delivered military goods to Ukraine during his administration. Obama did not. Biden actually said, in effect, "Oh woe is me. Maybe Russia will take a slice of Ukraine, but's that's OK with me." That was then. Like Madeline Albright told Saddam Hussein he could have Kuwait, who cares.

So, I've seen a clip of Trump saying we should send in our weapons now. To just end war decisively. I don't agree. Let's see the clip.


View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X-c1Me0Kezg


So really basic fact. Putin is not big on the MAGA idea, is not an American. You would have to actually look at what Putin thinks. He is not "Communist" but a Russian sort of Czar/Dictator with pretty flaky democracy pretensions. He promotes the Russian Orthodox Church as a means for gaining popular support from Russian cultural folks. The old Communist Party is his political opposition inside Russia. That's OK if they're "Russian". Not if they are Western commies or whatever. Putin and Trump working together is impossible, unless it's a deal that's good for us.

Putin has a case. Putin objects to NATO expansion, Western political influencers and Western-allied oligarchs

He had some bad help who misled him. About Ukrainian popular support he might get near Kiev. About Russian preparedness and capabilities. Big Mistake to invade Ukraine the way he did. Looks like he's gonna lose bigtime.

I think this changes everything. It xhanges Xu's calculations. Probably overall a good result.

I don't think the lines change much in the Donbas, but European leaders and others will prevail to stop the war in a few weeks. With the lines as then set. A lot of pro-Russian people in the areas actually controlled now. At worst for Putin, a lot of people will become refugeesw to Russia and Ukrainians will take the land.

Not sure if they will just stop there. Big Oil on the warpath.

The media hype in the west, the propaganda, is a blitzkrieg of nonsense.

 

[Gameface]

If it's Trumps team, the Ukrainians will get more help, not less. Even if Zelensky has used all his spare bribe money on Biden.

Look, here's Trump's point of view. His wife is from the Czeck Republic. Not really a Russia or USSR or Communist fan.

Trump the Chump actually delivered military goods to Ukraine during his administration. Obama did not. Biden actually said, in effect, "Oh woe is me. Maybe Russia will take a slice of Ukraine, but's that's OK with me." That was then. Like Madeline Albright told Saddam Hussein he could have Kuwait, who cares.

So, I've seen a clip of Trump saying we should send in our weapons now. To just end war decisively. I don't agree. Let's see the clip.


View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X-c1Me0Kezg


So really basic fact. Putin is not big on the MAGA idea, is not an American. You would have to actually look at what Putin thinks. He is not "Communist" but a Russian sort of Czar/Dictator with pretty flaky democracy pretensions. He promotes the Russian Orthodox Church as a means for gaining popular support from Russian cultural folks. The old Communist Party is his political opposition inside Russia. That's OK if they're "Russian". Not if they are Western commies or whatever. Putin and Trump working together is impossible, unless it's a deal that's good for us.

Putin has a case. Putin objects to NATO expansion, Western political influencers and Western-allied oligarchs

He had some bad help who misled him. About Ukrainian popular support he might get near Kiev. About Russian preparedness and capabilities. Big Mistake to invade Ukraine the way he did. Looks like he's gonna lose bigtime.

I think this changes everything. It xhanges Xu's calculations. Probably overall a good result.

I don't think the lines change much in the Donbas, but European leaders and others will prevail to stop the war in a few weeks. With the lines as then set. A lot of pro-Russian people in the areas actually controlled now. At worst for Putin, a lot of people will become refugeesw to Russia and Ukrainians will take the land.

Not sure if they will just stop there. Big Oil on the warpath.

The media hype in the west, the propaganda, is a blitzkrieg of nonsense.

Once again Trump doesn't actually have a plan. He's just so great that he would stop Putin because of very vague reasons.

We shouldn't be on the sidelines yet babe was telling us all that we were war mongers a week or two ago because of help and aid to Ukraine. Now Trump is all about escalation and here's babe sniffing Trump's butt hole and telling us how great it is.

Get ****ing serious babe.

 

[babe]

Once again Trump doesn't actually have a plan. He's just so great that he would stop Putin because of very vague reasons.

We shouldn't be on the sidelines yet babe was telling us all that we were war mongers a week or two ago because of help and aid to Ukraine. Now Trump is all about escalation and here's babe sniffing Trump's butt hole and telling us how great it is.

Get ****ing serious babe.

You should read before you respond on topics you don't know..

I was telling Thriller that Trump is out there bragging about how we should do better than Biden, that's all. All the rest of my opinions in here go pretty hard against this idea of Trump, or baseless claim. Hannity, Levin, and most Americans are right there with our lying media in support of Zelensky and "The Ukranian Marxist" exemplified by Zelensky. Well, that is the model Levin builds in his book "The American Marxist", but really, Zelensky isn't nearly as educated as a Marxist must be, or ideologically indoctrinated if "education" isn't the right word.

I was in favor of diplomacy before I knew who Zelensky is, and I think Zelensky is as much at fault for this war as NATO or the EU or George Soros or Rev 8 or Sir Itchyass. Yah, I think all those, and Putin and Xi and Trump as well are ignoramus puppets on the world stage who don't know who's pulling their strings. I don't want this war, or any war. I feel sorry for the people who get caught in the crossfire.

I couldn't tell you if it is the Devil, the City of London, or the oil cartels that want this war. I suspect it is a proxy war between the West and Russia. It looks like Russia might really lose. The Victor would be the globalist fascists, the Western smug arrogant power-hungry money baggers/warmongers. It would be classic Chinese strategy, as well, may I say, to entangle enemies in wars amongst themselves, like the British Foreign Office has done for centuries.

So who knows.

Pretty sure ordinary Ukrainians and Russians don't know why they are fighting.

Lying political activists who spread the hate don't know either.

 

[Deleted member 365]

Ah-hem.

Some people need to read this so they’re not just spouting off nonsense. The Ukrainian aid was passed on a bipartisan basis. It began under Obama, enjoyed support by Republicans and Democrats, but was illegally halted in secret by Trump. That’s why he was impeached, dumbass. It wasn’t until later that the aid was released to avoid impeachment (by then the damage was done and impeachment was necessary).

Timeline: How Trump withheld Ukraine aid – Center for Public Integrity

The Center for Public Integrity is a nonprofit newsroom that investigates betrayals of public trust. Sign up to receive our stories. The Trump administration’s 55-day halt this summer of hundreds of millions of dollars in military assistance and weapons sales to Ukraine was initially...

publicintegrity.org

Want to kill off Ukraine? Elect Republicans. There’s no way the MAGA Republicans led by speaker MTG would provide Ukraine with foreign aid. Remember folks, we’re less than 2 months removed from this:


View: https://twitter.com/American_Bridge/status/1496682759208775683?s=20&t=YF1H1EHL97upQnJ1Bd71og



View: https://youtu.be/_yz0AXHWz5E



View: https://twitter.com/shannonrwatts/status/1515085977282220032?s=21&t=dD1CxHElZma5On-X-0aDlA
Not all of us are immoral putin cheerleading pigs like these losers and certain posters here.

 

[Deleted member 365]

View: https://twitter.com/acyn/status/1526361061045047296?s=21&t=dD1CxHElZma5On-X-0aDlA
Pretty sure the countries in eastern Ukraine not being invaded can tell you what NATO is.

 

[fishonjazz]

Once again Trump doesn't actually have a plan. He's just so great that he would stop Putin because of very vague reasons.

We shouldn't be on the sidelines yet babe was telling us all that we were war mongers a week or two ago because of help and aid to Ukraine. Now Trump is all about escalation and here's babe sniffing Trump's butt hole and telling us how great it is.

Get ****ing serious babe.

Trump totally has a plan. He laid it out for us. We decorate our war planes to look like chinese war planes and then bomb russia with them.
Boom, problem solved. Trump has all the best ideas and knows more about war than anyone dontcha know


Sent from my iPad using JazzFanz mobile app

 

[babe]

The person to replace Putin isn't going to be much different than Putin, but that's not the point. We know what the most likely scenario here is because we've seen it play out many, many times around the world.

The war will likely grind down to some kind of a stalemate. Neither side is likely to accept a settled peace. At some point, the war will get unpopular in Russia. This is especially true if it gets to the point of young recruits being sent to Ukraine to be cannon fodder. The economy is only going to get worse, as well. Putin may die or become infirm, or he might be pushed aside and replaced. It doesn't really matter. He will be replaced by someone from his circle.

That person will have to continue Putin's policies, partly because their own position will be nowhere as strong as Putin's. The new guy will not have the benefit of 20 years of making himself and the state apparatus synonymous, but also because Putin has created this situation by design. There isn't an obvious #2 in Russia, because heir-apparents sometimes get sick of waiting and present a very real threat to you. Putin's replacement will also have to go through some internal struggles for power, which will again leave him weaker and open to attacks from both within and without the inner circle. He will be forced to continue the war because agreeing to a treaty would open him to accusations of treason and revisionism etc.

This guy will obviously not last long. He will then be replaced by someone from the outside of the inner circle, who regardless of his personal beliefs will be pragmatic enough to seek the end of the war. In exchange for lifting the sanctions, of course. By this time, it may well be 2026 and he may actually come to power through elections. United Russia is already a big tent party welded together by Putin's larger-than-life personality, and had fallen to under 50% of the popular vote as of last year. There will likely be a split after his death or removal based not so much on ideology but personal ambitions. Without an obvious number 2, there will be aggrieved parties who will believe they should've been his successor. In the infighting after Putin's demise, it will be easy for these people to find powerful sources of support. For example, I suspect that intelligence services and the army will throw their weight behind different people.

Again, because of a lack of a groomed successor, there will be a power vacuum in terms of a lack of cult of personality. No one likely to replace Putin will be Putin and command that kind of adulation and blind faith in him. The way these kinds of regimes work, even prominent allies and close confidants of Putin will likely be fall guys for him when the war starts going (really) bad. The incumbent who replaced Putin will be very unlikely to be able to pull off large-scale electoral fraud because they simply will not wield the same amount of power as Putin, nor will they have the unwavering loyalty of the entire state apparatus. This will make it possible for someone "new" to win the elections.

This someone, as mentioned, will be a pragmatist and an opportunist above all. It's not going to be anyone from the ranks of current enemies of the regime. It's definitely not going to be someone like Navalny. It will be someone who might have served as a minister or an ambassador during Putin's reign, but someone who didn't quite belong to the upper echelons of the regime. It's definitely not going to be someone like Lavrov or Shoigu. He will, at least, pay lip service to Russian nationalism, in order to make himself resistant to attacks from that side. He may even attack Putin's successor and others from United Russia who will be jostling for power by claiming they have somehow betrayed Putin and his legacy. He will of course be a master of telling everyone what they want to hear, so that he will simultaneously appear to be both for and against the war. He will also present himself as very empathetic to the suffering of regular people under the sanctions.

Once he wins, he'll be able to sign a peace treaty based on both war weariness in Russia, and his relative lack of war culpability in the eyes of the West and Ukraine. He will also have no personal and emotional investment in the war. He didn't start it and he didn't lose it. Ukraine and the West have no personal grudges against him, so they offer him a way to save face. Less likely, he keeps Crimea. More likely, Ukraine will agree to some kind of broad autonomy for eastern regions and near-official status for Russian language. Since symbolic gestures mean more than real power, you might even see a creation of a vice-presidential position in Ukraine which will by convention or law be filled by an ethnic Russian. The public opinion in Russia will be split between those who are against any peace treaty, those who are opposed specifically to this treaty but not opposed to the idea of a negotiated peace, and those who are sick enough of war, they'll take this.

Either way, there won't be enough support for a coup or anything like that to prevent the signing of the treaty. From then on, things can go in wildly different directions, but it's very unlikely there'd be a scenario where someone takes power and repudiates the treaty and starts another war.

If you read the Council on Foreign Relations/Chatham House--Royal Institute of International Affairs, there's a paper trail decades in the making for Putin Replacement Theory.

In Russian eyes, this crap virtually validates Putin as a national hero.

I think there is similar backlash in China over the very long history of British hegemony, and a growing similar rejection of monopolar UK/US global power.

You should perhaps get out of your little cloister or ivory tower and look around a bit.

Putin stepped in it big time with the Ukraine invasion, and it's debatable whether he will personally survive in power. But most of South America and Africa, some Middle East and India see the Ukraine war as another proxy war of the UK/US vs. Russia, and nothing to do with democracy or anything noble. A lot of people are just keeping their distance from the hothead media.

This war actually validates Russia as a leader in the new multipolar order many are working for.

China is seizing the day.

 

[Deleted member 365]

Trump totally has a plan. He laid it out for us. We decorate our war planes to look like chinese war planes and then bomb russia with them.
Boom, problem solved. Trump has all the best ideas and knows more about war than anyone dontcha know


Sent from my iPad using JazzFanz mobile app

He has the plan a great plan the best plan even though the media will never say it it’s the best plan that has ever frankly been made many people said we couldn’t do it remember that many people said we couldn’t do it but we did and we did it in record speed no thanks to Democrats the democrat party lost in 2016 they lost an election they had no business of losing many people said Hillary was going to win but we won we won and we won in 2020 on a landslide but we were robbed it was a disgrace I was speaking to a soldier and he said “sir sir thank you for your plan the other leaders didn’t have plans but you gave us a plan” and we will reveal the plan and I think it’s going to surprise many of you just you wait we will reveal the plan in two weeks it’ll cover everything for a fraction of the cost it’s great it’s going to be great the best.