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Trade Rumors Involving the Jazz

Handlogten's Heros said:
Opinions was bad word choice… it’s more pessimistic assumptions. When you trade a star you often get a mystery bag of stuff. If you take the NY package for example and assume every pick you get is going to be a mid first rounder then getting 4 of those is pretty meh. I can also just make bad assumptions that Donovan’s ankle problems are a sign he is going to be another injury plagued small guard and you should trade him now.

Whether the EV of #4 is over rated or not is not super relevant. It’s VALUABLE! Say you didn’t love the EV of Ivey… you could flip that pick to NY and get at a min #11 and their pick next year… more likely could get #11, 2023 1st, Quickley, and the Dallas pick they own. So now you have probably the better parts of the NY package you claim is better.

Barnes can easily get you a mid first from Atlanta, Chicago, or Minny.

Davion may not shoot straight… but he has an elite nba skill. Marcus Smart never really shot straight… he’s improved but he’s made it work. Davion is not as diverse of a defender as Smart but he’s very good. Saying a guy might improve his shooting a little is not a wild assumption… lots of guys have done it… even when they weren’t 19. The difference with Davion is he is a 4-5% bump in 3 point shooting from being a decent starter. He still has 3 years on a rookie deal to figure it out. This isn’t like assuming BS will shoot. This is saying a rookie will adjust to a three point line and hopefully hit around 35%… something a bunch of guys have done. Even if he doesn’t he can be a solid 6/7th man. He’s not the equivalent of a second rounder either way lol.

Getting the 7th slot next year (something more likely than the pick being in the mid first round) gives you a 30%+ shot at a top 4 pick… a 7.5% shot at #1. Even staying at 7 you’d have a shot at some all star talent.

Trading Donovan for a couple shots at getting AS talent and a few mid first round fliers is not HORRID. It’s kinda what you get when trading an all star. And the Kings package can be broken up to get the best parts of the Knicks package and betting against the Kings has an EV of pretty ****ing good.
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It was wild to me to get upset about having an opinion…while then proceeding to give an opinion because this is what we do. It’s a basketball forum. And then to say it’s not fact based when that was the whole point. When you look at the facts and learn what the expected value of a pick is….it’s probably not what you think of when you think of a top 5 pick. Even calling it a pessimistic isn’t right, it’s literally the median outcomes I’m talking about.

I do think it’s relevant if the pieces you get back are overrated. Very relevant in fact. That’s true for #4 and Davion Mitchell who got wildly overrated because of his clippable defensive moments and big numbers in the tankiest of tanky games. I don’t think he’s close to Smart as a defender or player….who at the end of the day is a solid starter/third guard on a contending team. He’s more akin to a Jevon Carter who plays 15 mpg….but I’d argue Carter’s shooting is more functional as a role player than Mitchell’s playmaking. Of course he can improve. Everyone can improve, but not everyone does. If I had a nickel for every player that would have been good if they could just increase their 3FG% by 4-5% I wouldn’t be rich but I’d have a lot of nickels.

I’m not taking a pessimistic look at this. It’s just what I would expect from these pieces. For draft picks, that is well researched. For Davion…yeah he’s ok but definitely not a world beater. I don’t think this trade gives us a good chance to get an all star. If you’re being optimistic on small probabilities on top of other probabilities, of course this trade will be good. You take take an optimistic look at any trade and you can talk yourself into thinking it will be great.

The thing I’ll give you is that whenever you deal with the Kings, you’re probably winning that trade.
 
KqWIN said:
It was wild to me to get upset about having an opinion…while then proceeding to give an opinion because this is what we do. It’s a basketball forum. And then to say it’s not fact based when that was the whole point. When you look at the facts and learn what the expected value of a pick is….it’s probably not what you think of when you think of a top 5 pick. Even calling it a pessimistic isn’t right, it’s literally the median outcomes I’m talking about.

I do think it’s relevant if the pieces you get back are overrated. Very relevant in fact. That’s true for #4 and Davion Mitchell who got wildly overrated because of his clippable defensive moments and big numbers in the tankiest of tanky games. I don’t think he’s close to Smart as a defender or player….who at the end of the day is a solid starter/third guard on a contending team. He’s more akin to a Jevon Carter who plays 15 mpg….but I’d argue Carter’s shooting is more functional as a role player than Mitchell’s playmaking. Of course he can improve. Everyone can improve, but not everyone does. If I had a nickel for every player that would have been good if they could just increase their 3FG% by 4-5% I wouldn’t be rich but I’d have a lot of nickels.

I’m not taking a pessimistic look at this. It’s just what I would expect from these pieces. For draft picks, that is well researched. For Davion…yeah he’s ok but definitely not a world beater. I don’t think this trade gives us a good chance to get an all star. If you’re being optimistic on small probabilities on top of other probabilities, of course this trade will be good. You take take an optimistic look at any trade and you can talk yourself into thinking it will be great.

The thing I’ll give you is that whenever you deal with the Kings, you’re probably winning that trade.
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You’re not being pessimistic but also you just comp’d Davion to Jevon and named Carter the better piece.

You called the deal horrid… vomit inducing… and said take the Knicks package instead. The Knicks package could end up 4 mid firsts but spread further in the future… this deal could give you that plus some. It’s a wild overreaction. What would you expect 4/Barnes/ 3 future firsts? That ain’t out there.

You are calling #4 over-rated… based on what? The top 4 guys are all projected to be pretty damn good. The median outcome of any pick other than #1 is not super amazing… but guess what… you are paying for the chance that it is… becausein top 5 it hits more than in the teens. Maybe you think we should trade Donovan for no incoming picks then? The kings trade is a perfectly fair rebuild trade that may not work out.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
You’re not being pessimistic but also you just comp’d Davion to Jevon and named Carter the better piece.

You called the deal horrid… vomit inducing… and said take the Knicks package instead. The Knicks package could end up 4 mid firsts but spread further in the future… this deal could give you that plus some. It’s a wild overreaction. What would you expect 4/Barnes/ 3 future firsts? That ain’t out there.

You are calling #4 over-rated… based on what? The top 4 guys are all projected to be pretty damn good. The median outcome of any pick other than #1 is not super amazing… but guess what… you are paying for the chance that it is… becausein top 5 it hits more than in the teens. Maybe you think we should trade Donovan for no incoming picks then? The kings trade is a perfectly fair rebuild trade that may not work out.
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I said he’s not akin to Carter than Smart…which is not crazy at all. I think he’s much closer to a role player than a starter on a championship team. Yes he can improve, but he has a long way to go to be a starter. And yes, Carter was better for a team trying to win than Mitchell last year.

I have voiced my opinion several times that I do not like the Knicks package. This Kings package is worse. I don’t think you could trade the Kings package for the Knicks package right now. If the Kings offered this for the Knicks future of picks and young players, I think they’d say hell no.

Do I really need to say again why I think #4 is being overrated? No I don’t. I’ve said it many times, and if you’re seriously asking that question I have no idea what to tell you because what I’ve told you went over your head.
 
KqWIN said:
I said he’s not akin to Carter than Smart…which is not crazy at all. I think he’s much closer to a role player than a starter on a championship team. Yes he can improve, but he has a long way to go to be a starter. And yes, Carter was better for a team trying to win than Mitchell last year.

I have voiced my opinion several times that I do not like the Knicks package. This Kings package is worse. I don’t think you could trade the Kings package for the Knicks package right now. If the Kings offered this for the Knicks future of picks and young players, I think they’d say hell no.

Do I really need to say again why I think #4 is being overrated? No I don’t. I’ve said it many times, and if you’re seriously asking that question I have no idea what to tell you because what I’ve told you went over your head.
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It didn't go over my head at all... but yeah if you look at the theory of drafting and text books you could say "well actually, the EV of pick #9 is not much different than pick #4, so Kings should take #9, #25 for #4 and they'd be much better off". But in the real world pick #4 is going to be traded for much more value than that. Why?

So if you wanted to be the draft nerd EV of picks guy... you could absolutely leverage #4 for at least #11, 2023 NY first, and likely something extra. So you can trade in a $100 mystery grab bag with an EV of $70 for a couple $50 grab bags with an EV of $40 all ****ing day if you want... but on the high end you might get 3-4 $50 grab bags... Why?

Its because the EV of draft picks is nice and a cute theory that doesn't apply directly to real-life NBA trades. Can't remember all the specifics but those articles are kinda funny cuz they will be like "to get from 25 to 15 you should only have to give up two seconds if you follow the EV of draft picks".

Its also hilarious that the practical application of this theory is what allowed us to trade Lyles and 24 to get Donovan... I mean Denver did the EV computations and Lyles plus 24 had and EV that was slightly higher than pick 13.

Your assessment of Davion is fine and all but he was a rookie. I get he was older... but aren't you the guy sitting here saying we should be trying to get guys that can increase their value? Aren't you saying we should look for Wiggins projects. Maybe Davion only has a 20% chance of being a 37%ish 3p shooter... but if he does figure that out he's a much better player than Carter. Carter can't drive and create for others at all. Also - lets go look at Jevon's stats as a 23 yo rookie... ohhhh he shot 30% and 33% on threes... that is way better than Davion who was... 42% and 32%... its almost like there was an adjustment and Jevon needed some time to figure it out. As far as how functional it was as a role player... well Carter hit 36% on catch and shoot 3s and Davion was 33%.

You can have your nickels for the guys that didn't figure it out... you get a $1 for the ones that do and we need $1s. I mean if he turns out to shoot it as well as Carter then he's a super version of Carter... I don't think it is unreasonable to think he could do it... since the guy you comp'd him to in fact made a bigger leap. A dynamic version of Carter that can actually dribble and create a bit would be a solid low level starter. He may not do it but its a fine bet to make... if you wanted to separate him out of the deal I think you could easily get a pick in the 20s for him.

Its just funny you think it goes over my head... you are making the simp mistake of thinking Donovan is worth way more than he actually is if you think this trade is HORRID. Its in the window of fair.
 
On Zach Lowes latest podcast he says his sources are telling him nothing is imminent on the Gobert front. Says the Jazz are asking a lot for him, and it seems no one is offering enough to get them to bite.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
It didn't go over my head at all... but yeah if you look at the theory of drafting and text books you could say "well actually, the EV of pick #9 is not much different than pick #4, so Kings should take #9, #25 for #4 and they'd be much better off". But in the real world pick #4 is going to be traded for much more value than that. Why?

So if you wanted to be the draft nerd EV of picks guy... you could absolutely leverage #4 for at least #11, 2023 NY first, and likely something extra. So you can trade in a $100 mystery grab bag with an EV of $70 for a couple $50 grab bags with an EV of $40 all ****ing day if you want... but on the high end you might get 3-4 $50 grab bags... Why?

Its because the EV of draft picks is nice and a cute theory that doesn't apply directly to real-life NBA trades. Can't remember all the specifics but those articles are kinda funny cuz they will be like "to get from 25 to 15 you should only have to give up two seconds if you follow the EV of draft picks".

Its also hilarious that the practical application of this theory is what allowed us to trade Lyles and 24 to get Donovan... I mean Denver did the EV computations and Lyles plus 24 had and EV that was slightly higher than pick 13.

Your assessment of Davion is fine and all but he was a rookie. I get he was older... but aren't you the guy sitting here saying we should be trying to get guys that can increase their value? Aren't you saying we should look for Wiggins projects. Maybe Davion only has a 20% chance of being a 37%ish 3p shooter... but if he does figure that out he's a much better player than Carter. Carter can't drive and create for others at all. Also - lets go look at Jevon's stats as a 23 yo rookie... ohhhh he shot 30% and 33% on threes... that is way better than Davion who was... 42% and 32%... its almost like there was an adjustment and Jevon needed some time to figure it out. As far as how functional it was as a role player... well Carter hit 36% on catch and shoot 3s and Davion was 33%.

You can have your nickels for the guys that didn't figure it out... you get a $1 for the ones that do and we need $1s. I mean if he turns out to shoot it as well as Carter then he's a super version of Carter... I don't think it is unreasonable to think he could do it... since the guy you comp'd him to in fact made a bigger leap. A dynamic version of Carter that can actually dribble and create a bit would be a solid low level starter. He may not do it but its a fine bet to make... if you wanted to separate him out of the deal I think you could easily get a pick in the 20s for him.

Its just funny you think it goes over my head... you are making the simp mistake of thinking Donovan is worth way more than he actually is if you think this trade is HORRID. Its in the window of fair.
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If you don't want me to think something goes over your head, do not ask dumb questions like "based on what" out of pure bad faith. There's only two reasons you would ask that, out of bad faith or because explicit language flies over your head.

I never said that draft picks need to have equal EV to the player(s) they are traded for. I know that's not what how trades work. My point is these assets, especially the #4 pick and Davion Mitchell, are not as good as being advertised. #4 is being oversold because there is a name to it and it's really easy to fall in love with draft prospects. Regardless of how I or anyone else about Ivey/other player, I know what to expect from a #4 pick based on history. So no, I'm not buying into "the top 4 guys are all projected to be very good" so we can expect a very good player. Every player drafted in the top 5 every year is projected to be good, but it doesn't work out that way. That's not me being negative, that's being more realistic. There is a balance between thinking about a specific prospect versus the draft position, and it changes depending on the year/player...but when you fall in love with a certain guy I think you talk yourself into thinking that the pick that gets him is more valuable than it is....both from a trade value and outcomes/EV standpoint. It's natural, and I'm aware of it because I do it myself. I really, really like Chet as a prospect. I think he's going to be a multi-all star, all NBA type player. But I also have to be aware of the reality that Marvin Williams is a fairly median outcome for a #2 overall pick.

Davion is overrated as a player/prospect. If you peg him as a starter, you're probably being lower on him then the consensus. Me personally, I think being a starter is a higher end outcome for him. He's way more likely to be a 15 MPG player on a winning team, and he still needs to work up to that. I think he will, but that's kind of what I'm expecting from him. The way people talk about Davion, he is a basically a no go in a trade for me. I just know that you're giving up too much for what you're going to get back. I do like second draft types of guys, but Davion isn't coming at that second draft price. He's coming at the, "guy who we just drafted and we love" price.
 
Jingled said:
On Zach Lowes latest podcast he says his sources are telling him nothing is imminent on the Gobert front. Says the Jazz are asking a lot for him, and it seems no one is offering enough to get them to bite.
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The question is which team is motivated enough to pay the full price. It sounds like Chicago is willing to go a long way if they're moving players to acquire picks to put in a package.
 
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