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Utah Jazz Select Ace Bailey, Pick 5

RandyForRubio said:
I didn’t watch Rutgers, or hardly anybody, this year, so I’m missing a lot of context.

Bailey’s first half of the season, statistically, was really good. Second half, abysmal. I don’t know if it was conditioning, immaturity, shots just not falling, regressing to the mean, or what, but if he can consistently play like he did at the beginning, he’s gonna be real good.

First 19 games he shot 48/41/67 while averaging 21/8.

Last 11 games he shot 41/18/74 while averaging 12/6.

Again, I don’t know the particulars of why the regression, but it was drastic.
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i watched almost every rutgers game and was baffled at how bad he was those last several games. it was as if he forgot how to shoot. very weird. wasn't even making his signature "tough" shots. the only thing i noticed is that he played really well when Harper was out but when Harper came back he was horrible. almost as if Harper returning disrupted a rhythm he was in somehow. he was fine playing with Harper before Harper's injury, but it's as if he got comfortable without him and then just couldn't find it after Harper was back. I will say, Harper was never great about finding Bailey and helping him get good shots and get in a rhythm. and i could be completely off - sorta grasping at straws. it's something i thought about a lot while it was happening, and was baffled by it. as i said earlier i often asked myself if he just forgot how to shoot, if he had the yips or something.
 
seattlejazzfan said:
i watched almost every rutgers game and was baffled at how bad he was those last several games. it was as if he forgot how to shoot. very weird. wasn't even making his signature "tough" shots. the only thing i noticed is that he played really well when Harper was out but when Harper came back he was horrible. almost as if Harper returning disrupted a rhythm he was in somehow. he was fine playing with Harper before Harper's injury, but it's as if he got comfortable without him and then just couldn't find it after Harper was back. I will say, Harper was never great about finding Bailey and helping him get good shots and get in a rhythm. and i could be completely off - sorta grasping at straws. it's something i thought about a lot while it was happening, and was baffled by it. as i said earlier i often asked myself if he just forgot how to shoot, if he had the yips or something.
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I hope I’m right, but I suspect he’s better than Harper, but because he can’t create as well, Harper had to take the lead.
 
I talked a lot about Tre's poor's FT rate, but Ace's FTr was actually criminal. It's just another one of those things where you just look away and hope that his college play does not represent him as a player.....but this isn't one of those things that usually gets better. Wouldn't surprise me if he has like a 15% FTr in the pros like Miller.
 
KqWIN said:
I talked a lot about Tre's poor's FT rate, but Ace's FTr was actually criminal. It's just another one of those things where you just look away and hope that his college play does not represent him as a player.....but this isn't one of those things that usually gets better. Wouldn't surprise me if he has like a 15% FTr in the pros like Miller.
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I am terrified he's going to be awful.
 
Saint Cy of JFC said:
I am terrified he's going to be awful.
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I actually don't think he will be awful just because there's so many ways he could contribute. He has enough athleticism+size to contribute even if he can't play offense, but maybe his ego gets in the way of doing so. I feel like people see Ace as a giant boom or bust swing, but I see it a bit differently. Instead of one big bet it's like placing 10 separate bets on blackjack. They could all hit or miss, but it's likely that you win some and you lose some.
 
KqWIN said:
I talked a lot about Tre's poor's FT rate, but Ace's FTr was actually criminal. It's just another one of those things where you just look away and hope that his college play does not represent him as a player.....but this isn't one of those things that usually gets better. Wouldn't surprise me if he has like a 15% FTr in the pros like Miller.
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I am not overly worried. If he is bad at the rim, then the organization just needs to put in the effort to get him better with being physical/crafty enough to get to the rim. Insanely young player. And I think the best organizations can get the best out of guys like Ace. There is alot more to unlock with this guy.
 
Basketball Novice said:
I am not overly worried. If he is bad at the rim, then the organization just needs to put in the effort to get him better with being physical/crafty enough to get to the rim. Insanely young player. And I think the best organizations can get the best out of guys like Ace. There is alot more to unlock with this guy.
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It's just not something happens much. The good/bad thing about Ace is that you could just try to chalk it up to him being stupid. Like maybe he could get to the rim and FT line but preferred to chuck instead. But I wouldn't take stupidity as an encouraging sign.
 
KqWIN said:
It's just not something happens much. The good/bad thing about Ace is that you could just try to chalk it up to him being stupid. Like maybe he could get to the rim and FT line but preferred to chuck instead. But I wouldn't take stupidity as an encouraging sign.
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Dead-on. I see no reason he doesn’t have the ability to get to the rim, he’s settling + doesn’t like contact.
 
NUMBERICA said:
Dead-on. I see no reason he doesn’t have the ability to get to the rim, he’s settling + doesn’t like contact.
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Well, he is kinda stiff. Getting to the basket takes skill/ability. I don’t think it’s right to just assume he could get there if he wanted. But there’s no doubt in my mind that the biggest thing preventing him from getting there is his love of mid range. He really does remind me of the wing version of Ayton.
 
From CBS Sports -- https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/...-flagg-ace-bailey-all-first-round-selections/

I give this an enthusiastic "A." His upside is significant. He didn't work out for them but Utah was not going to get bullied by Bailey's representation. They took the best prospect on the board. I believe he's a top three prospect in the draft. He's a jumbo wing, high-level athlete and tough shot-maker. If everything clicks, he could have the highest upside in the draft. Ace Bailey is going to have an opportunity to have an immediate impact. I think in the long run this can work out very, very well for the Jazz. Grade: A
 
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From SI:

5. Utah Jazz: Ace Bailey, Rutgers Scarlet Knights​

Grade: A​

After plenty of headlines about Bailey’s unorthodox predraft process, the Rutgers product lands at No. 5 in Utah. Bailey’s camp reportedly attempted to position him to land with a team like Washington or Brooklyn, but instead, the Jazz took the dive on a clear top-three talent in this draft despite not getting the chance to work him out prior to draft day. It’s a clear win for Utah to land Bailey after falling on lottery night to No. 5 despite his decision-making warts that have sometimes plagued him throughout his young career. Even if this is a boom-or-bust pick, it’s a risk the Jazz needed to take.
 
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KqWIN said:
Well, he is kinda stiff. Getting to the basket takes skill/ability. I don’t think it’s right to just assume he could get there if he wanted. But there’s no doubt in my mind that the biggest thing preventing him from getting there is his love of mid range. He really does remind me of the wing version of Ayton.
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Loving the midrange isn't necessarily a bad thing, he is great at shooting midrange shots. While it's not the most efficient shot, the midrange is great to have in the playoffs, where getting buckets is tougher and defenses are tighter. Ace is one of the few guys who can be an elite midrange guy in the league and make it a big part of his game. I have also seen him gradually getting better at being physical, backing down guys to get easier shots near the basket. He will have to continue to get better at this and other ways to get to the basket but I think he got better as the year went on. Will need to look up the data on this to confirm this for myself.
 
Basketball Novice said:
Loving the midrange isn't necessarily a bad thing, he is great at shooting midrange shots. While it's not the most efficient shot, the midrange is great to have in the playoffs, where getting buckets is tougher and defenses are tighter. Ace is one of the few guys who can be an elite midrange guy in the league and make it a big part of his game. I have also seen him gradually getting better at being physical, backing down guys to get easier shots near the basket. He will have to continue to get better at this and other ways to get to the basket but I think he got better as the year went on. Will need to look up the data on this to confirm this for myself.
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It is a bad thing and is especially a bad thing for Ace IMO. It very much prevents him from getting good opportunities for himself and his teammates. There is a time and place to shoot tough shots, but his affinity for shooting them is way too much.

I don't fully disagree with the playoff angle, but I'd counter by saying that when getting buckets and defense is tighter....the ability to produce good shots is even more important.
 
KqWIN said:
It is a bad thing and is especially a bad thing for Ace IMO. It very much prevents him from getting good opportunities for himself and his teammates. There is a time and place to shoot tough shots, but his affinity for shooting them is way too much.

I don't fully disagree with the playoff angle, but I'd counter by saying that when getting buckets and defense is tighter....the ability to produce good shots is even more important.
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I don't think anyone will disagree that Ace's shot distribution needs to be adjusted to allow him to score more efficient buckets but on the other hand, I do not want to rip out the midrange part of his game. I believe that is swinging too far in the other direction. I think we agree for the most part. I guess the question is, how far do we want to go with changing Ace's shot tendencies. I'm curious as to how Hardy and the coaching staff will approach this.
 
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