We signed Emmanuel Mudiay

[colton]

I think Mudiay and Exum compliment each other nicely, and can play together, assuming both show improvement otherwise there isn’t much reason to play rather much.

obligatory *complement

 

[MVP]

Mudiay's defense has been really bad his whole career... I'm not sure he's ever a smart basketball player.

Like Exum would not drive Snyder nuts for constantly messing team defensive assignments and switches. He would get subbed after 2-3 minutes after few boneheaded mistakes constantly. He was good in one thing only, staying in front of his man. As soon as some screens and switches happen Exum would be lost like chicken in the dark.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Like Exum would not drive Snyder nuts for constantly messing team defensive assignments and switches. He would get subbed after 2-3 minutes after few boneheaded mistakes constantly. He was good in one thing only, staying in front of his man. As soon as some screens and switches happen Exum would be lost like chicken in the dark.

He’s not a net negative on defense though... Mudiay has been.

I’ll say it again... Mudiay is very Burksy... creating a shot for himself might be valuable in some cases but I struggle to see a good fit inside our system. Low cost high reward so why not... let’s see what he can do.

 

[stitches]

He’s not a net negative on defense though... Mudiay has been.

I’ll say it again... Mudiay is very Burksy... creating a shot for himself might be valuable in some cases but I struggle to see a good fit inside our system. Low cost high reward so why not... let’s see what he can do.

I somewhat disagree here. Mudiay is actually not horrible in the PnR... might actually be the best part of his game and the reason we wanted him here - we are the team that runs the most PnRs in the league if I'm not mistaken. It's not just creating offense for himself in that regard, he makes some nice passes out of the PnR, but he does make a lot of stupid decisions too.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Is this what I said?

Mudiay's best season vs Dante's last 2 seasons:

So yeah... Dante passed better and has been more efficient than Mudiay over the last 2 seasons. This doesn't even begin to account for their defense where Dante blows him out of the water... BY A HUGE MARGIN!!!

RPM:
Exum(17-18): -1.57
Exum(18-19): -2.13
Mudiay: -2.71

RAPM:
Exum(17-18): 0.05
Exum(18-19): 0.84
Mudiay: -1.62

PIPM:
Exum(17-18): -1.14
Exum(18-19): -2.2
Mudiay: -2.4



Notice.. I'm only taking Mudiay's best season(the last one), because if I went back the comparison becomes absolutely BRUTAL in favor of Exum.



I would appreciate you being a bit less condescending for someone who has done ZERO research on the things you talk with such confidence about.

I get it... hating on Exum is all in vogue nowadays for whatever reason... like he chooses on purpose to break his bones and tear his ligaments once he gets on court, but lets be at least a bit reasonable here.

You talking to mvp. He is dumb as hell. He probably cant even read

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

I somewhat disagree here. Mudiay is actually not horrible in the PnR... might actually be the best part of his game and the reason we wanted him here - we are the team that runs the most PnRs in the league if I'm not mistaken. It's not just creating offense for himself in that regard, he makes some nice passes out of the PnR, but he does make a lot of stupid decisions too.

they aren't the same player... just think some of the things that held Alec back are thing Mudiay may struggle with. That is good to know on the PnR stuff.

 

[ChicAggie]

Locke has proposed that this pick-up is an opportunity for The Jazz to try to reinvent Exum as a 2/3 slasher.

Reinvent? Isn't that what he's always been?

 

[ChicAggie]

There are maybe 1-2 people here who hate Exum. The rest of us would rather move on, which people view the same as hating, I guess. It's not Exum himself. It's that with the current dynamics he represents an opportunity cost and we're continuing down this path because of a sunk cost fallacy.

Look, I wasn't huge on the Exum draft. I saw him as someone who was quick and athletic but didn't seem to have specific skill, which JFC gets really excited about any time they see it (Saer Sene, Jeremy Evans, etc.). Despite that, I have no beef with the pick, and it was the obvious pick. When we moved back from 3 to 5 our destiny was sealed. It was looking like we'd get Aaron Gordon, who I also wasn't excited about but whatever. It is what it is. Then Orlando took Gordon and Exum was the obvious choice. Not exactly the way we saw all our tanking efforts ending. We closed his rookie season strong and he started and played good D, so I was hopeful. Then he was injured. Then he came back and wasn't getting burn. We passed on picking up DWill off waivers to "clear the path" for Exum, then he was being benched for Mack, who sucked, and I disagreed with that. If we were going to pass on DWill to give Exum burn, don't play Mack. He would have occasional flashes where he'd drive the lane, but this was few and far between. He didn't get burn (I think we should have given more burn to prevent us from being in this exact situation we're in), and he kept being injured. Obviously that's not his fault. He's shown some flashes of really good D on very limited sample sizes in the playoffs against Harden. People are knocking guys like Caruso for getting hyped by their limited sample size while at the same time rationalizing continued sunk cost when Exum's highs seriously have similar sample sizes.

The truth is, IDGAF about Mudiay. Very meh signing for me. But I think there's a very important lesson to be had here. Mudiay was a #7 pick. He had a lot of hype. He averaged 12 ppg as a rookie and 11 ppg as a sophomore. Despite that, Denver traded him for Devin Harris and a second round pick. He averaged 15 ppg last year. Despite that, NYK didn't look at him and say "he was drafted 7th and he's still got untapped potential." No. They let him walk. Nobody around the league is looking at him and seeing #7 pick and potential after four seasons. Literally nobody. He just got a minimum contract. That's where his value is. Does this sound familiar? The Jazz are taking a very different approach with Exum when NBA history is riddled with these cases. Because of a familiarity bias we are prone to overvalue Exum far above and beyond what anybody else would. We certainly don't overvalue the Exum of other teams because we don't have that same familiarity. If Exum were waived today, what's his market? Nobody here is clamoring for Elfrid Payton or even Mudiay, yet those are two guys who have done more than Exum has thus far and are very similar players.

Jabari Parker was drafted second the same year Exum was drafted. He's also had unfortunate injuries that have limited his career. He's a former 20 ppg scorer. For as good as Exum is on defense, Jabari is as good on offense, and for as bad as Jabari is on defense, Exum is as bad on offense. Despite investing a #2 draft pick in him, Milwaukee let him sign elsewhere. The Wizards aren't factoring in that he's a former #2 pick when they're going to let him sign elsewhere. How much money is he going to get in free agency this year? My guess is that it nowhere approximates $20M over two years.

So, really, I have two questions:

1) Is it irrational for people to consider this an opportunity cost and want to move on at this point?

2) If people are wanting to move on, does that equate to hate?

That is a thoughtful post that poses some excellent questions and makes some excellent points. The piece of information we are missing in our own analyses is how the coaching staff sees these player in practice, what their attitude is like behind the scenes, and how hard they work. It is certainly very possible that the Denver and Milwaukee coaching staffs did not see the same things out of Mudiay and Parker that our coaching staff has seen out of Exum. While every other point you make is valid, I don't think we have sufficient information to conclude that the Jazz are sticking with Exum as a result of the sunk cost fallacy and/or simply because he was the #5 pick. (BTW, that 2014 draft SUCKED: Wiggins, Parker, Embiid, Gordon, Exum, Smart, Randle, Stauskus, Vonleh, Payton, McDermott, Saric, LaVine, Warren, and Payne. Of the top 15 players in the draft, only Embiid has averaged more than .100 WS/48 for his career, and 12 of the top 15 have NEGATIVE plus/minus numbers for their careers. Pretty pathetic. No obvious miss by the Jazz in that draft.)

 

[NUMBERICA]

There are maybe 1-2 people here who hate Exum. The rest of us would rather move on, which people view the same as hating, I guess. It's not Exum himself. It's that with the current dynamics he represents an opportunity cost and we're continuing down this path because of a sunk cost fallacy.

Look, I wasn't huge on the Exum draft. I saw him as someone who was quick and athletic but didn't seem to have specific skill, which JFC gets really excited about any time they see it (Saer Sene, Jeremy Evans, etc.). Despite that, I have no beef with the pick, and it was the obvious pick. When we moved back from 3 to 5 our destiny was sealed. It was looking like we'd get Aaron Gordon, who I also wasn't excited about but whatever. It is what it is. Then Orlando took Gordon and Exum was the obvious choice. Not exactly the way we saw all our tanking efforts ending. We closed his rookie season strong and he started and played good D, so I was hopeful. Then he was injured. Then he came back and wasn't getting burn. We passed on picking up DWill off waivers to "clear the path" for Exum, then he was being benched for Mack, who sucked, and I disagreed with that. If we were going to pass on DWill to give Exum burn, don't play Mack. He would have occasional flashes where he'd drive the lane, but this was few and far between. He didn't get burn (I think we should have given more burn to prevent us from being in this exact situation we're in), and he kept being injured. Obviously that's not his fault. He's shown some flashes of really good D on very limited sample sizes in the playoffs against Harden. People are knocking guys like Caruso for getting hyped by their limited sample size while at the same time rationalizing continued sunk cost when Exum's highs seriously have similar sample sizes.

The truth is, IDGAF about Mudiay. Very meh signing for me. But I think there's a very important lesson to be had here. Mudiay was a #7 pick. He had a lot of hype. He averaged 12 ppg as a rookie and 11 ppg as a sophomore. Despite that, Denver traded him for Devin Harris and a second round pick. He averaged 15 ppg last year. Despite that, NYK didn't look at him and say "he was drafted 7th and he's still got untapped potential." No. They let him walk. Nobody around the league is looking at him and seeing #7 pick and potential after four seasons. Literally nobody. He just got a minimum contract. That's where his value is. Does this sound familiar? The Jazz are taking a very different approach with Exum when NBA history is riddled with these cases. Because of a familiarity bias we are prone to overvalue Exum far above and beyond what anybody else would. We certainly don't overvalue the Exum of other teams because we don't have that same familiarity. If Exum were waived today, what's his market? Nobody here is clamoring for Elfrid Payton or even Mudiay, yet those are two guys who have done more than Exum has thus far and are very similar players.

Jabari Parker was drafted second the same year Exum was drafted. He's also had unfortunate injuries that have limited his career. He's a former 20 ppg scorer. For as good as Exum is on defense, Jabari is as good on offense, and for as bad as Jabari is on defense, Exum is as bad on offense. Despite investing a #2 draft pick in him, Milwaukee let him sign elsewhere. The Wizards aren't factoring in that he's a former #2 pick when they're going to let him sign elsewhere. How much money is he going to get in free agency this year? My guess is that it nowhere approximates $20M over two years.

So, really, I have two questions:

1) Is it irrational for people to consider this an opportunity cost and want to move on at this point?

2) If people are wanting to move on, does that equate to hate?

I don’t have the patience (or likely the ability) to write it out this way. Thank you. Ded on.

 

[Shad]

Exum blows. The contract he got from Dennis is definitely the worse signing so far

 

[mrob]

There are maybe 1-2 people here who hate Exum. The rest of us would rather move on, which people view the same as hating, I guess. It's not Exum himself. It's that with the current dynamics he represents an opportunity cost and we're continuing down this path because of a sunk cost fallacy.

Look, I wasn't huge on the Exum draft. I saw him as someone who was quick and athletic but didn't seem to have specific skill, which JFC gets really excited about any time they see it (Saer Sene, Jeremy Evans, etc.). Despite that, I have no beef with the pick, and it was the obvious pick. When we moved back from 3 to 5 our destiny was sealed. It was looking like we'd get Aaron Gordon, who I also wasn't excited about but whatever. It is what it is. Then Orlando took Gordon and Exum was the obvious choice. Not exactly the way we saw all our tanking efforts ending. We closed his rookie season strong and he started and played good D, so I was hopeful. Then he was injured. Then he came back and wasn't getting burn. We passed on picking up DWill off waivers to "clear the path" for Exum, then he was being benched for Mack, who sucked, and I disagreed with that. If we were going to pass on DWill to give Exum burn, don't play Mack. He would have occasional flashes where he'd drive the lane, but this was few and far between. He didn't get burn (I think we should have given more burn to prevent us from being in this exact situation we're in), and he kept being injured. Obviously that's not his fault. He's shown some flashes of really good D on very limited sample sizes in the playoffs against Harden. People are knocking guys like Caruso for getting hyped by their limited sample size while at the same time rationalizing continued sunk cost when Exum's highs seriously have similar sample sizes.

The truth is, IDGAF about Mudiay. Very meh signing for me. But I think there's a very important lesson to be had here. Mudiay was a #7 pick. He had a lot of hype. He averaged 12 ppg as a rookie and 11 ppg as a sophomore. Despite that, Denver traded him for Devin Harris and a second round pick. He averaged 15 ppg last year. Despite that, NYK didn't look at him and say "he was drafted 7th and he's still got untapped potential." No. They let him walk. Nobody around the league is looking at him and seeing #7 pick and potential after four seasons. Literally nobody. He just got a minimum contract. That's where his value is. Does this sound familiar? The Jazz are taking a very different approach with Exum when NBA history is riddled with these cases. Because of a familiarity bias we are prone to overvalue Exum far above and beyond what anybody else would. We certainly don't overvalue the Exum of other teams because we don't have that same familiarity. If Exum were waived today, what's his market? Nobody here is clamoring for Elfrid Payton or even Mudiay, yet those are two guys who have done more than Exum has thus far and are very similar players.

Jabari Parker was drafted second the same year Exum was drafted. He's also had unfortunate injuries that have limited his career. He's a former 20 ppg scorer. For as good as Exum is on defense, Jabari is as good on offense, and for as bad as Jabari is on defense, Exum is as bad on offense. Despite investing a #2 draft pick in him, Milwaukee let him sign elsewhere. The Wizards aren't factoring in that he's a former #2 pick when they're going to let him sign elsewhere. How much money is he going to get in free agency this year? My guess is that it nowhere approximates $20M over two years.

So, really, I have two questions:

1) Is it irrational for people to consider this an opportunity cost and want to move on at this point?

2) If people are wanting to move on, does that equate to hate?

Excellent points. Very well thought out.

It comes down to whether people believe that Exum has shown us everything that he is capable of showing. No one can dispute that injuries have hurt his results as well as his development. This is not an excuse ... just reality.

I completely understand that people are just "done" with him at this point. I'm pretty close myself.

My reasoning for not just trading him for picks are:

1) There's a huge upside if he can develop at least into a solid backup and obviously more if his deficiencies are really a product of his development and that he still has starting potential.
2) He's not getting paid that much. It's not nothing, but it's still pretty low.
3) His salary has not prevented the team from signing anyone that we wanted. (This could change, but so far it hasn't been a factor.)
4) The team would understandably like to see Exum play out a better part of a season. They can't wait forever obviously, but it would be ideal to at least be reasonably certain of what they are trading away.

If he gets injured again or does not get appreciably better this year, I see no reason to continue this project.

 

[Ferguson_Mellochill]