You're the GM this offseason. What do you do?

[Handlogten's Heros]

I think Conley catapults you into a different level where it makes it more feasible to continue with talent. For instance, if two years of Conley keeps you at 1-3 in the west, it's pretty easy to get people to buy-in and fill in around that, or even sign larger guys, when we're making trips to the WCF. As we will see this summer, it's kinda hard to do that when you get bounced speedily in the first round. So even though he may have a short shelf-life, it pays other dividends that people don't recognize. (Not to beat a dead horse but this is one reason I've said we needed to cash in those first rounders for someone like Niko -- we'd have won more regular season games, positioned ourselves better for the post-season, and have been more attractive).

He also doesn't need to play 70+ games... just give us 55+ games and be healthy in the playoffs and our playoff ceiling goes way up. We can stitch together pg for 20+ games with DM, Neto, Ingles, and other minimum vet additions.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

TJ is taking a lot of Kemba to Utah questions... that is one I just can't see... I think Hornets will pony up megamax which is like $50M more than we could offer. Kemba has made good money but he hasn't made so much that he can walk from that dough imo… unless he makes it up in marketing dollars or elsewhere. His big contract was 4/48M.

Tobias has a better chance of happening because I doubt Philly offers the 5 year max... they also have the Jimmy Butler factor they are weighing. Even that is slim because there will be 2/3 teams willing to go full max to him imo.

 

[infection]

So here is my offseason plan...

Get Conley using Exum a 1st and Favs (and Bradley for cap fodder if needed) or cap space.
Still leaves around 10-15M (depending on Kyle) to make a 4/50 offer for Niko.
Use the room exception on a quality backup center unless there is a wing that misses big money and is a good value... Ideally I think Taj Gibson on a 1 year 4.5M deal would work... other candidates Noah Vonleh, Kyle O Quinn, Dedmon (may not have Jazz DNA doe), Koufus, Lopez... could also move Jae for a backup center and use this exception on something else.
Buy a good second round pick to add a prospect to the pipeline.

What am I missing on Dedmon not having Jazz DNA? I really like him.

 

[NUMBERICA]

TJ is taking a lot of Kemba to Utah questions... that is one I just can't see... I think Hornets will pony up megamax which is like $50M more than we could offer. Kemba has made good money but he hasn't made so much that he can walk from that dough imo… unless he makes it up in marketing dollars or elsewhere. His big contract was 4/48M.

Tobias has a better chance of happening because I doubt Philly offers the 5 year max... they also have the Jimmy Butler factor they are weighing. Even that is slim because there will be 2/3 teams willing to go full max to him imo.

Can Kemba sign a Megamax? Wouldn't he have to be All NBA?

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

What am I missing on Dedmon not having Jazz DNA? I really like him.

There may be character issues... think it came up when he was with SA... it is just what I gather from listening to experts. It is why I put a ? … I am not sure how true it is.

 

[infection]

There may be character issues... think it came up when he was with SA... it is just what I gather from listening to experts. It is why I put a ? … I am not sure how true it is.

Even so, I’d be willing to trade our Dedman for Dedmon.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Can Kemba sign a Megamax? Wouldn't he have to be All NBA?

He may end up all nba… which would get him the super duper megamax… as it stands he can get the 5 year max which is $50M higher... if he got super duper I think it is like $80M more than anyone can offer... yowza!

 

[infection]

Just a question...

When you’ve earned $60M is salary alone, what can you do with $250M that you can’t do with $200M? Seriously.

 

[infection]

I mean, give me $2.5M and I’ll live off the interest alone for the rest of my life.

 

[NUMBERICA]

Just a question...

When you’ve earned $60M is salary alone, what can you do with $250M that you can’t do with $200M? Seriously.

I think this is part of why Kawhi and AD are fine to walk: that amount of money is literally stupid and doesn't change anything for them at that point.

To quote Dave Chappelle: "The only difference between $10 million and $50 million is an astounding $40 million."

 

[NUMBERICA]

He may end up all nba… which would get him the super duper megamax… as it stands he can get the 5 year max which is $50M higher... if he got super duper I think it is like $80M more than anyone can offer... yowza!

Ah.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Just a question...

When you’ve earned $60M is salary alone, what can you do with $250M that you can’t do with $200M? Seriously.

Your great great grandkids may be taken care of... I understand your question... but it is tough enough to say no to the extra $50M... but you pass $50M to go to Utah? This ain't KD to GS ya know.

Also, its taxes, advisors, people you have to take care of... ain't like there is $60M sitting in the bank after that stuff.

 

[infection]

Your great great grandkids may be taken care of... I understand your question... but it is tough enough to say no to the extra $50M... but you pass $50M to go to Utah? This ain't KD to GS ya know.

Also, its taxes, advisors, people you have to take care of... ain't like there is $60M sitting in the bank after that stuff.

I've also found the extra money you get paid on re-signing to be a bit overblown because they add in that 5th year and then compare it to a 4 year contract. That only bites you if you get injured or have a major drop off. Signing a four year deal, you're still making money in that 5th year, it's just yet to be determined how much. But anyway, even thought it's a short time... those are some golden handcuffs if you end up staying in a situation you don't like or will always be looking back wondering "what if?"

 

[NUMBERICA]

I've also found the extra money you get paid on re-signing to be a bit overblown because they add in that 5th year and then compare it to a 4 year contract. That only bites you if you get injured or have a major drop off. Signing a four year deal, you're still making money in that 5th year, it's just yet to be determined how much. But anyway, even thought it's a short time... those are some golden handcuffs if you end up staying in a situation you don't like or will always be looking back wondering "what if?"

Kemba is a prime drop-off candidate, though. So while the difference isn't likely an entire $50 million shortfall, he's very unlikely to make more in free agency than he would otherwise be paid on his 5-year max (which would probably be a player option anyway).

 

[Keefe]

He also doesn't need to play 70+ games... just give us 55+ games and be healthy in the playoffs and our playoff ceiling goes way up. We can stitch together pg for 20+ games with DM, Neto, Ingles, and other minimum vet additions.

I don’t agree with this. If Conley misses 27 games we’re staring another 5 seed or worse in the face. Seeding matters.

 

[LoPo]

Sure that guy could start... GS start Looney and Bogut at center... Milwaukee starts Brook Lopez... Boston starts Baynes. We don't want to play Favs and Rudy together... I see that a negative rather than a positive. Favs has earned the right to start but the Rudy, Favs, Ricky pairing has hurt the team... adding an average player like Crowder in for Favs has opened up the offense.

I mean if Rudy gets hurt we are screwed... just like if KD gets hurt GS is screwed... Harden, Giannis, etc.

I like that Conley isn't the answer but retaining the same group is? If the answer at PF is Royce, Jae, Niang (ingles isn't a 4... doesn't rebound and gets abused in the post)… then why play a guy there that isn't the answer? So we can have a super sub backup center. Go pay Ed Davis, Robin Lopez, Kyle O Quinn, etc... for that good backup. If one of Rudy or Favs could shoot or playmake it would be different... Favs as a backup center is overkill and committing resources there that should be used to address other needs is exactly what will stagnate us long term.

I'd rather have a guy younger than Conley, but of the realistic options he is the best player for the price that we can pay imo. Bandaid or not... the guy is an all star level pg. I'd prefer to land Tobias but that is a long shot. There isn't one player that pushes us over Houston or GS... unless those teams lose players to FA or injury.

Conley
DM
Ingles
Royce/Jae
Rudy

With MLE or remaining cap space to fill out the bench is a great start.

Golden State can start Looney or Bogut because they have 4 other all stars on the court. That's not a fair analysis at all. Boston has multiple dangerous wing options in addition to Kyrie. The Bucks do too.

If Rudy gets hurt, we aren't that screwed as long as we have Favors. That's my point. If we don't have strong center play, our entire system falls apart. So why lose Favors and leave us with no great center option outside of Gobert? Are we so certain that some $4 million center is going to play as well as Favors for 12mpg or if Gobert gets banged up? I'm not so sure...

I'm just not sold on Conley if it means losing all our cap space, Exum, a 1st rounder AND Favors. Just not worth it in my opinion. Our starting unit gets better, but our depth takes a big hit. Conley makes substantially more than Jrue at an older age and he's pretty fragile himself.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Kemba is a prime drop-off candidate, though. So while the difference isn't likely an entire $50 million shortfall, he's very unlikely to make more in free agency than he would otherwise be paid on his 5-year max (which would probably be a player option anyway).

This... ask IT how much interest teams have in small guards once they fall off. Kemba will be 33-34 in 4 years... it isn’t a site bet he’d even get MLE at that point.

It’s a lot of money to pass up for a guy who likes that area... he’d also have more options in areas traditionally viewed as better areas.

 

[NUMBERICA]

Golden State can start Looney or Bogut because they have 4 other all stars on the court. That's not a fair analysis at all. Boston has multiple dangerous wing options in addition to Kyrie. The Bucks do too.

If Rudy gets hurt, we aren't that screwed as long as we have Favors. That's my point. If we don't have strong center play, our entire system falls apart. So why lose Favors and leave us with no great center option outside of Gobert? Are we so certain that some $4 million center is going to play as well as Favors for 12mpg or if Gobert gets banged up? I'm not so sure...

I'm just not sold on Conley if it means losing all our cap space, Exum, a 1st rounder AND Favors. Just not worth it in my opinion. Our starting unit gets better, but our depth takes a big hit. Conley makes substantially more than Jrue at an older age and he's pretty fragile himself.

You're making some good points, but spending serious money on a backup 5 is a bad plan (Favors isn't signing a longterm extension at $12 million per year), and losing Exum isn't a loss.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Golden State can start Looney or Bogut because they have 4 other all stars on the court. That's not a fair analysis at all. Boston has multiple dangerous wing options in addition to Kyrie. The Bucks do too.

If Rudy gets hurt, we aren't that screwed as long as we have Favors. That's my point. If we don't have strong center play, our entire system falls apart. So why lose Favors and leave us with no great center option outside of Gobert? Are we so certain that some $4 million center is going to play as well as Favors for 12mpg or if Gobert gets banged up? I'm not so sure...

I'm just not sold on Conley if it means losing all our cap space, Exum, a 1st rounder AND Favors. Just not worth it in my opinion. Our starting unit gets better, but our depth takes a big hit. Conley makes substantially more than Jrue at an older age and he's pretty fragile himself.

The general idea is fine in the analysis... center is a place you can find guys cheap and may not be the position you should allocate all your cap resources to if you’d like to be among the best team in the nba.

Exum is a negative contract and is also ded. We’d still have some space still to operate. If we keep Favs and Exum we essentially lose that space anyway.

It’s going to be tough or impossible to address our other needs by paying a guy 17M or 12M if his biggest benefit is just to backup our max player. Both guys have good redundancies and bad redundancies.

So is your plan to run it back? What pg you getting that is better than Ricky?

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

You're making some good points, but spending serious money on a backup 5 is a bad plan (Favors isn't signing a longterm extension at $12 million per year), and losing Exum isn't a loss.

Not to mention you’d waive Favs and some team with space could just pick him up... then he can’t sogn your deal.

Would you rather have 27M of Favs and Exum or 32M of Conley next year?