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Summer 2019 Roster Discussion

latin jazz said:
That contract though...
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Hey, you don't have to convince me.
Sneakers said:
I don't think this team's ceiling if you replace Rubio and Favors with just Kevin Love is any higher than it is right now. It might be worse
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I think it would depend on a number of things. The first is what the PG situation is. If you were even able to retain Rubio, then it really depends on Love's health. If he can play a reasonable amount of games and is still an 18/10 guy, then I think, for the next two years at least, we will put up really solid regular seasons ad can win 55-60. I don't know what that translates to in the playoffs, though.
 
Russell might be the type of restricted free agent you could steal with a max. They might still match... I would be frightened to sign him for that much. He has improved and I think he has grown up from his Laker days.

I’d probably talk myself into him but he is definitely not first on my list.
 
infection said:
Hey, you don't have to convince me.

I think it would depend on a number of things. The first is what the PG situation is. If you were even able to retain Rubio, then it really depends on Love's health. If he can play a reasonable amount of games and is still an 18/10 guy, then I think, for the next two years at least, we will put up really solid regular seasons ad can win 55-60. I don't know what that translates to in the playoffs, though.
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You kinda hit on why I don’t want love. It’s a big swing for a mediocre gain. Just not worth the risk. I’d want an asset to take on that albatross and even then I wouldn’t love it... they likely want a small asset for him. I think you pay a trade premium for the name and it doesn’t make sense to me.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
Russell might be the type of restricted free agent you could steal with a max. They might still match... I would be frightened to sign him for that much. He has improved and I think he has grown up from his Laker days.

I’d probably talk myself into him but he is definitely not first on my list.
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I agree with all of this.

If we end up with a max Russell, he is an asset. Resigning guys like Favors and Rubio help maintain the status quo whereas Russell is an aggressive move which we hope takes us that next step. If he doesn't, he is still a trade asset we can trade for other assets. Rubio and Favors are not trade assets.

I would rather get other targets but I would be happy if this is our main off-season acquisition.

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infection said:
No. We’re not going to pursue Niko. I mean, our name will be floated, and we’ll be “aggressive,” but he’ll ultimately sign somewhere for a lot less than Love. Don’t mistake me saying we’re landing Love with me wanting to land Love. I put the acquisition of Love as the highest probable guy to come on board.
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On the Niko front. I think the Bucks did that in part because they will replace Lopez with Niko next year. I think they may be willing to pay a bunch and needed the caphold on the books.

To keep Lopez they probably need to drop below the cap use space then re-sign their guys... difficult to do with Malcolm because once he signs a restricted offer his caphold jumps up.

I’m curious to see what Lopez gets... not a fit here but curious what he gets and where he lands.
 
LoPo said:
I agree with all of this.

If we end up with a max Russell, he is an asset. Resigning guys like Favors and Rubio help maintain the status quo whereas Russell is an aggressive move which we hope takes us that next step. If he doesn't, he is still a trade asset we can trade for other assets. Rubio and Favors are not trade assets.

I would rather get other targets but I would be happy if this is our main off-season acquisition.

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There is something to be said for this too. As long as guys are healthy and mildly productive they still have trade value. Barnes was viewed as a big overpay but delivered on court value and was moved for expirings and a decent wing prospect... likely could have fetched a first.

I think Brooklyn would almost certainly match and figure out their other stuff later. I’ll have to look at their cap situation but I think the only way it’d change is if they had a big free agent signing there and they needed to get Russell’s caphold off the books.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
On the Niko front. I think the Bucks did that in part because they will replace Lopez with Niko next year. I think they may be willing to pay a bunch and needed the caphold on the books.

To keep Lopez they probably need to drop below the cap use space then re-sign their guys... difficult to do with Malcolm because once he signs a restricted offer his caphold jumps up.

I’m curious to see what Lopez gets... not a fit here but curious what he gets and where he lands.
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In a year, I really think people will see that you've gotta go for the bird in the hand. People didn't want to give up a draft pick for Niko last year because "oh, we'll just sign him as a free agent this summer." Then his option gets picked up and it's "oh, we'll just trade expirings for him on draft nigh." Then we find out you can't do that, then it's "oh, we'll just trade for him at the deadline when it's clear AD leaves." Now it's "oh, we don't need to give up assets for a rental when we can just sign him in the summer." Then not having bird rights will bite us in the *** and year from now, people will be pretty depressed, even if they don't like Niko, because we'll be sitting here seeing Niko on a 3-4 year deal at $18M, while we've got four more year of Kevin Love at 30+M per year. Oh, and all that "OMG don't give up draft picks" stuff? Yeah, we're trading a first and second rounder to land Love.
 
LoPo said:
I'm hoping that we are okay at PG with Exum, Mitchell, Neto and Grayson. Maybe towards the end of free agency we use an exception to add somebody like Beverley, Lin, etc.

Of course the idea on extending Favors at $10ish comes after we miss out on max free agent targets like Tobias. With $20 million, we can still get a good player or two.

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I think Exum starting and Neto being back Up is great, we need to move away from rubio, he's good against the teams below 500
 
infection said:
In a year, I really think people will see that you've gotta go for the bird in the hand. People didn't want to give up a draft pick for Niko last year because "oh, we'll just sign him as a free agent this summer." Then his option gets picked up and it's "oh, we'll just trade expirings for him on draft nigh." Then we find out you can't do that, then it's "oh, we'll just trade for him at the deadline when it's clear AD leaves." Now it's "oh, we don't need to give up assets for a rental when we can just sign him in the summer." Then not having bird rights will bite us in the *** and year from now, people will be pretty depressed, even if they don't like Niko, because we'll be sitting here seeing Niko on a 3-4 year deal at $18M, while we've got four more year of Kevin Love at 30+M per year. Oh, and all that "OMG don't give up draft picks" stuff? Yeah, we're trading a first and second rounder to land Love.
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I think we add something in free agency, but the ship may have completely sailed with Niko if he ends up liking it in Milwaukee. Depends on how their free agency goes, but he may be viewed as the long term piece with Lopez potentially on the move.
 
A draft trade would seem to make sense.

A team I'm watching is Orlando. They obviously loved Vucevic and Ross so much they didn't even trade them even though they were expirings. If they keep those guys, they will be way over the luxury. Isaac and Gordon really don't fit next to each other. I would try the following:

Favors and our 1st
for
Gordon and Mozgov

This is one of those deals that gets agreed upon at the draft but isn't completed until the first day of free agency. Favors is a high quality vet for that young team and Orlando clears cap space necessary to keep Vucevic and Ross. We have to renounce Rubio to make this happen, but Gordon could be worth it because his contract is so great (declining less than $20 the next 3 years).

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infection said:
In a year, I really think people will see that you've gotta go for the bird in the hand. People didn't want to give up a draft pick for Niko last year because "oh, we'll just sign him as a free agent this summer." Then his option gets picked up and it's "oh, we'll just trade expirings for him on draft nigh." Then we find out you can't do that, then it's "oh, we'll just trade for him at the deadline when it's clear AD leaves." Now it's "oh, we don't need to give up assets for a rental when we can just sign him in the summer." Then not having bird rights will bite us in the *** and year from now, people will be pretty depressed, even if they don't like Niko, because we'll be sitting here seeing Niko on a 3-4 year deal at $18M, while we've got four more year of Kevin Love at 30+M per year. Oh, and all that "OMG don't give up draft picks" stuff? Yeah, we're trading a first and second rounder to land Love.
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Well... looking at the bucks situation...

Assume Middleton gets a max.
Assume it costs $40M combined per year to keep Bledsoe and Brogdon.
Then say they keep Niko at $18M per year.
They lose Lopez.

They are looking at $50M in luxury tax... which is a lot. I think they can cut in other places like Snell and Ersan, but they might do that if they have a good run. I really enjoy them so I won't be rooting for them to lose, but if they struggle it may create less willingness to spend. If Bledsoe or Malcolm get a big offer elsewhere it could get much more ugly.

So if they retain Bledsoe at $20ish M I think Malcolm can be had for something around $25M.
If they were able to keep Lopez at a bargain price then I think Niko can be had.
If you pushed Niko up to $22-$25M you are probably higher than what Milwaukee will offer... that is a lot and I'd hope to build some games played bonuses and maybe make the salary decline. I guess in the long run for our cap if you get him at 4/$75 vs. 4/$90M+ then I guess it isn't an astronomical difference. Either way you are committed and if he sucks you are kinda hosed.

We should just go to the Bucks and say "which free agent would you like to give us... cuz we are getting one of them"... let's just work together.
 
LoPo said:
A draft trade would seem to make sense.

A team I'm watching is Orlando. They obviously loved Vucevic and Ross so much they didn't even trade them even though they were expirings. If they keep those guys, they will be way over the luxury. Isaac and Gordon really don't fit next to each other. I would try the following:

Favors and our 1st
for
Gordon and Mozgov

This is one of those deals that gets agreed upon at the draft but isn't completed until the first day of free agency. Favors is a high quality vet for that young team and Orlando clears cap space necessary to keep Vucevic and Ross. We have to renounce Rubio to make this happen, but Gordon could be worth it because his contract is so great (declining less than $20 the next 3 years).

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don't think that works on draft night. Maybe we agree to it then wait until the league year turns over.

I think it is too light in value for Gordon. I think Vucevic's market is lower than some expect (maybe $20M) and that they would let Ross walk before being forced to move Gordon. No idea though... that franchise keeps pretty quiet.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
don't think that works on draft night. Maybe we agree to it then wait until the league year turns over.

I think it is too light in value for Gordon. I think Vucevic's market is lower than some expect (maybe $20M) and that they would let Ross walk before being forced to move Gordon. No idea though... that franchise keeps pretty quiet.
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Probably right. Still worth keeping a eye on. If we eat some salary and send some picks, maybe we can start a conversation.

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Sean Marks is just seeing the rewards for his rebuilding effort in Brooklyn. And he's just going to let D'Lo walk after their best season in years? Nahhhhh. They have money to work with and a good reason for staying the course. They'll match any offer.
 
A team used to have seven days to match an offer on their RFA but now have just five, right?
 
SCS said:
Sean Marks is just seeing the rewards for his rebuilding effort in Brooklyn. And he's just going to let D'Lo walk after their best season in years? Nahhhhh. They have money to work with and a good reason for staying the course. They'll match any offer.
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Depends... if they have a max free agent interested in coming they will need to remove his caphold to sign the free agent or they can stretch Crabbe (may not want to do that with the guys they have coming up for extension).

If their FA plans flop then I agree... they keep him.
 
SCS said:
Sean Marks is just seeing the rewards for his rebuilding effort in Brooklyn. And he's just going to let D'Lo walk after their best season in years? Nahhhhh. They have money to work with and a good reason for staying the course. They'll match any offer.
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Unfortunately, you are probably right. Its a pretty big deal how much he and his head coach get along too. The only reason I see them letting him go is if they firmly believe he isn't a max player and he receives a max offer somewhere.

At the end of the day, I just dont think they are the type team to let an asset just leave.

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