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2020 Presidential election

Ellipse said:
Do you answer your phone if the caller is unknown? I don't because of robocalls -- if they leave a message I may return the call. I doubt that my response is limited to an insignificant portion of the voting public.
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Google is your friend. I’d suggest searching 538’s website. They have a mountain of resources that can help inform you how polls are taken in today’s complex technological solutions environment. They also how many case studies explaining how polls are still extremely accurate. The wash post also has had editorials about this. Catherine Rampel I believe wrote one not too long ago.

If I were you I’d take maybe 10-15 minutes procuring those sources. 538 first then the wash post.
 
Ellipse said:
Do you answer your phone if the caller is unknown? I don't because of robocalls -- if they leave a message I may return the call. I doubt that my response is limited to an insignificant portion of the voting public.
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I did do an online survey a few weeks ago. It was posted here on jazz fanz and quite a few of us did it. So there's that I guess
 
The Thriller said:
Google is your friend. I’d suggest searching 538’s website. They have a mountain of resources that can help inform you how polls are taken in today’s complex technological solutions environment. They also how many case studies explaining how polls are still extremely accurate. The wash post also has had editorials about this. Catherine Rampel I believe wrote one not too long ago.

If I were you I’d take maybe 10-15 minutes procuring those sources. 538 first then the wash post.
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I took the time to google 538's political polling methodology -- couldn't find it. I did find the methodology Rasmussen uses, which, as expected, uses robocalls and online surveys. I also read Catherine Rampel's editorial, which did a good job of explaining polling methodologies. Rampel glossed over the inherent flaws in the polling methods by refuting those who called it "junk science", but ultimately she wants the rest of use to believe in the polls because there is nothing better (at least that is what I took away from her writing).

Well, I don't call polls "junk science", but I do not believe the current political polling methods -- especially given today's political climate -- are anywhere near accurate.
 
Catchall said:
He just doesn't look like a political candidate who's about to lose to Joe Biden or Elizabeth Warren, but we shall see...
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He's not going to be going against Biden. And probably not Warren. He's going to be going against Oprah or Bloomberg or Michelle Obama.
 
Catchall said:
He just doesn't look like a political candidate who's about to lose to Joe Biden or Elizabeth Warren, but we shall see...
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Yeah, nah. He's a historically unpopular president considering the state of the economy. His approval ratings haven't been above water since he was elected. Yeah, he fills stadiums, so did Bernie in 2016. That proves the enthusiasm of his base, but doesn't necessarily correlate to overall popularity.

People talk about how ****** a candidate Hillary was, which is true, but she still won the popular vote, and that was before years of bungled management and controversy by Trump.

Democrats weren't fired up to vote for Hillary, but have no doubt they (and a strong contingent of never Trump conservatives) are chomping at the bit to get him out of office.
 
Zombie said:
LOL wut. It's early but odds are it will come down to Warren, Biden or Bernie.
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Biden is way too old and is losing it. Bernie is a kook. Warren will have trouble with Trump, I think. She doesn't have the star quality and this is a popularity contest. As big of a danger as Trump is we're not going to risk another 4 years. Big money and a ton of peer-pressure will force one of those three to run, IMO.
 
str8line said:
Biden is way too old and is losing it. Bernie is a kook. Warren will have trouble with Trump, I think. She doesn't have the star quality and this is a popularity contest. As big of a scoundrel as Trump is we're not going to risk another 4 years. Big money and a ton of peer-pressure will force one of those three to run, IMO.
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No man, it's just not going to happen. If it was one of them would have declared by now. Feel free to hold me to this twelve months from now.
 
Zombie said:
No man, it's just not going to happen. If it was one of them would have declared by now. Feel free to hold me to this twelve months from now.
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There's no reason to declare right now. None of them really want to do it but at least one of them will.
 
I consider Warren the frontrunner. Biden is sputtering, Sanders has stalled and Harris is faltering. The other candidates are all extreme long shots.
 
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