Coronavirus

[BabyPeterzz]

Just thought I would chime in and say Trump and the feds are so far behind local gov it’s ****ing embarrassing. Coming from someone on the front lines of this thing. Feds should be leading and we all fall in line. They can barely keep up right now. Just wait till throwing money everywhere will effect a post-COVID economy. This is so long from over folks, and our fed response has been half-assed at best and Trump is the bumbling moron steering us into the iceberg. ***** about to get waaaay worse and we’re woefully unprepared.

What a failure.

Stay home, stay safe. Carry on.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[stitches]

Averages can tell you a whole lot. Exponential growth just doesn't pick and choose where it wants to grow based off of invisible border lines. There's a median where you can average out the highs and lows and come up with a reasonable expectation. There will always be outliers but hardly ever to the extent it would take to cause a +/- of tens of millions like many here are making. It's statistically impossible.

You cannot come with a reasonable expectation where you average the highs and the lows because in an exponential the highs overwhelm the lows and it gets there QUICKLY if not stopped. This is why you have to avoid getting to the highs altogether. The median on an exponential is NOT the average/mean. The average is skewed much closer to the end of the exponential. And this doesn't even take into account that you still will have to about double your numbers on the way down to zero once you reach the peak. It doesn't just stop once you break the exponential growth.

Or ..

Can you find me one country that had been on the uptick for over 3 weeks? I can't find a single "outliers" so again the chances of the world getting sick at a .06% chance and America getting sick at 30+% is insanely improbable. Almost impossible.

Edit: and please enlighten me just how that happens. What equations are you using to say that even 1% will get sick let alone 30+%. Why will Americans get sick at 30+% but the rest of the world less than one percent.

Every single major country in the world has followed exponential growth for more than 3 weeks at some point until now. The US is one of them and it continues to follow an exponential growth curve. The ones that don't take the required measures will continue to grow exponentially until they take the measures or the virus run out of people to infect(herd immunity - might be anywhere between about 50 to 80% of the population).

There is no magic equation, because this is a wild disease that we still don't know everything about and it is affected by what you do against it. Measures are taken not uniformly across countries and even when similar measures are taken they are not followed and enforced uniformly. You can look at the data from other countries and make some reasonable predictions. And if I had to bet the US won't get to 70M by May, because they are taking some of the measures that other countries have taken that have reached what seems like a local peak. And IMO if things don't slow down they will continue taking stricter measures until they break the exponential growth. But this is just a guess on my part and here's where the uncertainty comes.

The hard part is not predicting what happens while you are on the exponential curve. The hard part is predicting when you will jump off the exponential.

BTW, this still doesn't answer the question I posed earlier today - what happens after you get it under control and the cases start dropping to 10K... or 1K... do you let loose and risk another peak? Do you wait for it to get to 0? There is a real danger of second peak if the measure are let up and it's still not cleaned out of the population. I don't know what the answer is here at all... I just haven't heard a good(actually ANY) plan about how you restart life without risking it happening again?

 

[Scat]

I found this helpful

 

[Miggs]

I’m nervous for my wife’s job. She’s pretty high up in Big 3 CPA and has been due to be promoted for 2-3 years now (but hasn’t because they’re very top heavy) to partner-equivalent but I’m seriously worried about this. The one typical way to shed money is to lay off second tier management. Lay off 500 people worldwide and you’ve saved the company ~80 million dollars. Their CEO gave a call last week and said they are absolutely not laying one person off as they believe most of what’s happening now will be back-logged to the fall when things will get super busy and they’ll need everyone. My take is you never know. The narrative changes in two months if their clients get murdered and can’t re-up them as their auditors or tax people because their fees are so exorbitant.

I guess we’ll see. She’s been told through someone else that a certain group would feel the layoffs first. And I do know she is sort of an expert in a niche role for which they don’t have many other people that competent if any at all. Still. Scary **** if I sit here and ponder on the what ifs for too long since we have three little ones at home.

For anyone out there who’s in a similar or worse spot, my God’s honest thoughts and prayers are with you.

 

[Scat]

Here is an updated version through today's date. No change in growth in the US.https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/

 

[Miggs]

Here is an updated version through today's date. No change in growth in the US.https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/

What in the holy **** are you talking about? Are you talking so far as the percentage of growth day over day?

 

[Scat]

What in the holy **** are you talking about? Are you talking so far as the percentage of growth day over day?

I worded that poorly. No drop in the rate of growth. Still on an upward trend in the US.

 

[JazzyFresh]

You cannot come with a reasonable expectation where you average the highs and the lows because in an exponential the highs overwhelm the lows and it gets there QUICKLY if not stopped. This is why you have to avoid getting to the highs altogether. The median on an exponential is NOT the average/mean. The average is skewed much closer to the end of the exponential. And this doesn't even take into account that you still will have to about double your numbers on the way down to zero once you reach the peak. It doesn't just stop once you break the exponential growth.




Every single major country in the world has followed exponential growth for more than 3 weeks at some point until now. The US is one of them and it continues to follow an exponential growth curve. The ones that don't take the required measures will continue to grow exponentially until they take the measures or the virus run out of people to infect(herd immunity - might be anywhere between about 50 to 80% of the population).

There is no magic equation, because this is a wild disease that we still don't know everything about and it is affected by what you do against it. Measures are taken not uniformly across countries and even when similar measures are taken they are not followed and enforced uniformly. You can look at the data from other countries and make some reasonable predictions. And if I had to bet the US won't get to 70M by May, because they are taking some of the measures that other countries have taken that have reached what seems like a local peak. And IMO if things don't slow down they will continue taking stricter measures until they break the exponential growth. But this is just a guess on my part and here's where the uncertainty comes.

The hard part is not predicting what happens while you are on the exponential curve. The hard part is predicting when you will jump off the exponential.

BTW, this still doesn't answer the question I posed earlier today - what happens after you get it under control and the cases start dropping to 10K... or 1K... do you let loose and risk another peak? Do you wait for it to get to 0? There is a real danger of second peak if the measure are let up and it's still not cleaned out of the population. I don't know what the answer is here at all... I just haven't heard a good(actually ANY) plan about how you restart life without risking it happening again?

The best post I have read here by far. Amazing job! I wish others could do the same but they'd rather belittle me because I like Trump. So I thank you. I still disagree as I feel averages have and are being used as a base in said models Fauci and Birx talk about. You can most definitely look at other countries and get a very solid idea as to what's in store. The doctors have even admitted to that being a huge part

I understand that the way Im using daily averages may be a little far fetched but my intention is to show what astronomical numbers need to happen to even make a linear scale. Im not doing it to make any predictions. When I say 20,000 people a day it's just to show how many cases it's going to take. Today for example is around 22,000 cases thus far. Next week that could bump to 100,000 cases a day but that number will never stay constqnt as you already know. Next week could be 100,000 the next could be 1500 or 500,000 but it will always come back down.

 

[candrew]

From what I've come to learn the larger cities in NJ are underreporting the number of cases. Perhaps severely underreporting.

If someone in a family has the virus, they tell the rest of the family to self-quarantine. They do NOT test them. The assumption being they probably have the virus and it's not worth testing them. So let's say 1 person in a family of 4 has the virus, they count that 1 person as a positive while it's probable 1 to 3 additional people are also positive, but not tested.

 

[Red]

So gross dude. Personally I wish you'd just let up with your obvious copy and pasted bias disinformation for one day. People are dying here. Let no crisis go to waste.

@Red

Who says this? Can you provide the doctors who are saying this? From what I'm seeing 200,000 is a high guesstimate. Second paragraph of your obvious propaganda piece.

"The nation’s top health officials say that if everything goes “perfectly,” we will “only” have up to 200,000 dead. If things don’t go perfectly, it could be in the millions, they say."

Do you remember the study published, the lead author was Dr. Neil Ferguson, along with 30 other medical researchers, and which I posted a link to earlier in this thread? Here it is:

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/im...-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

Now, as I reported at the time, both Dr. Deborah Birx, and Dr. Fauci, the leading doctors on our coronavirus task force, adopted the conclusions of this study. Simply read the study and you will find the estimates, for both GB and the US.

They did not go into one model: doing nothing at all. Obviously, that leads to the most deaths. The two models they did study was mitigation and suppression. Read the article to understand the difference between the strategies of mitigation and suppression. Interestingly, Ferguson, et al, estimated less than 20,000 deaths in GB if suppression was the strategy adopted.

Recently, one of our resident trolls posted something to the effect: "look, Ferguson was wrong! He said hundreds of thousands of UK deaths, now he says less than 20,000! He was so wrong". I'm pretty sure I know who posted that, but, I won't name the poster without being certain. But, here is the thing: Ferguson, et al, in fact did predict <20,000 deaths using the suppression strategy. And that is just the model that GB is attempting to enforce. So the trolls attacking Ferguson's study simply misinterpreted the new estimate, based on GB having adopted suppression. That's what trolls do, misinform, etc., etc. Trolls are not interested in actual facts. The trolls are the ones spreading propoganda.

(Here is one of many articles which trolls, here and on other forums I frequent, used as "evidence" Ferguson had flip flopped. I find many trolls to be inherently stupid people, who have no time to get their facts straight:

https://www.glasgowtimes.co.uk/news...us-lockdown-keep-infection-manageable-levels/)

Now, you have accused ME of promoting propaganda. But, everybody understands by now that I have been posting science based medical research, and I have been posting responsibly. I am a honorable dude, I am not a scaremonger, or an irresponsible troll. And Trump's response is part of this story. So I have not been afraid to post opinions in that respect, either.

I do not need your permission, dude!

Our own doctors, on the cornavirus task force, adopted the study I have just posted a link to. Simply read it and draw your own conclusions.

This is the last time I will respond to your attempts to paint me as a bad person, here only to scare and yuk it up. I am quite through with your nonsense.

 

[JazzyFresh]

Do you remember the study published, the lead author was Dr. Neil Ferguson, along with 30 other medical researchers, and which I posted a link to earlier in this thread? Here it is:

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/im...-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

Now, as I reported at the time, both Dr. Deborah Birx, and Dr. Fauci, the leading doctors on our coronavirus task force, adopted the conclusions of this study. Simply read the study and you will find the estimates, for both GB and the US.

They did not go into one model: doing nothing at all. Obviously, that leads to the most deaths. The two models they did study was mitigation and suppression. Read the article to understand the difference between the strategies of mitigation and suppression. Interestingly, Ferguson, et al, estimated less than 20,000 dealths in GB if suppression was the strategy adopted.

Recently, one of our resident trolls posted something to the effect: "look, Ferguson was wrong! He said hundreds of thousands of UK deaths, now he says less than 20,000! He was so wrong". I'm pretty sure I know who posted that, but, I won't name the poster without being certain. But, here is the thing: Ferguson, et al, in fact did predict <20,000 deaths using the suppression strategy. And that is just what GB is doing. So the trolls attacking Ferguson's study simply misinterpreted the new estimate, based on GB having adopted suppression. That's what trolls do, misinform, etc., etc. Trolls are not interested in actual facts. The trolls are the ones spreading propoganda.

Now, you have accused ME of promoting propaganda. But, everybody understands by now that I have been posting science based medical research, and I have been posting responsibly. I am a honorable dude, I am not a scaremonger, or an irresponsible troll.

Our own doctors, on the cornavirus task force, adopted the study I have just posted a link to. Simply read it and draw your own conclusions.

This is the last time I will respond to your attempts to paint me as a bad person, here only to scare and yuk it up. I am quite through with your nonsense.

"The nation’s top health officials say that if everything goes “perfectly,” we will “only” have up to 200,000 dead. If things don’t go perfectly, it could be in the millions, they say."

This is a propagated lie. 100%. This was paragraph 2 of your propaganda piece. By all means ignore me but I will continue to call things like that out as fear mongering lies. I'll wait while you prove me wrong. Which doctors said this?

Oh and here's the many times you've called people like me, my family, friends and even your own friends cult members. Excuse me for not believing you're what you claim...

https://jazzfanz.com/search/16593854/?q=Cult&o=date&c[node]=3&c[user][0]=3085

 

[Avery]

Anyone else starting to fight more with their family? This is the third week of working from home/schools being out and everyone seems to be getting more feisty. These bitches should just accept that I'm probably right and getting Panda Express is not supporting local businesses (but that $20 family meal is pretty kick-***).

This is just the appetizer too - I'm anticipating WFH until June if I'm lucky.