Rational CoViD-19 Discussion Thread: Science vs. Politics

[Harambe]

So here you disclose your professional expertise on the subject, and while I'm sure you understand your protocols, you missed the logic of my statement, which would be an "expertise" area few would really have unless you are either a mathematician or a test designer.

I'm not sure I'm fully qualified in either of the above, but I am aware there is an issue here.

You, and the State, presume that the test, if positive, is absolutely correct, and that a negative result is also definitive or dispositive of the case. There is nothing more to say, or think.

You make a great statists, but a poor philosopher, and a poor realist.

Philosophy needs to follow the science. Not the other way around. Live in the numbers, direct towards the management.

You seem to think fringe philosophy is where you start. This is not normal, or reasonable.

 

[babe]

Philosophy needs to follow the science. Not the other way around. Live in the numbers, direct towards the management.

You seem to think fringe philosophy is where you start. This is not normal, or reasonable.

While I appreciate your comments, in this specific and in general, it shows the difference which we often find compelling in our reasoning. What we assume sets the course all the way to our science and our management.

You, like many, consider science something above our initial hypothetical constructs, but it is not. Science is entirely our evidence, as we deign to construct the issue, followed by our results, as we deign to interpret, measure, or report them, and our conclusions never do get out of the gravitational sphere of our own intellect. Hence, science is determined by our philosophy, and there is no way we shall ever fully escape that fundamental limitation.

But I sympathize with your effort. It is a high and noble endeavor to establish something objective in guidance of our human proclivities. As my great Aunt Gretta told me, a man's reach should exceed his grasp.

Management, at it's worst, is the imposition of ideological imperatives upon our nation, state, or local governance.

I am guilty of trying out a variety of starting points at various times, and I enjoy trying to trace out where they lead......

Nobody should dispense with their reason in dealing with anything I say.

 

[olden_undercover]

While I appreciate your comments, in this specific and in general, it shows the difference which we often find compelling in our reasoning. What we assume sets the course all the way to our science and our management.

You, like many, consider science something above our initial hypothetical constructs, but it is not. Science is entirely our evidence, as we deign to construct the issue, followed by our results, as we deign to interpret, measure, or report them, and our conclusions never do get out of the gravitational sphere of our own intellect. Hence, science is determined by our philosophy, and there is no way we shall ever fully escape that fundamental limitation.

But I sympathize with your effort. It is a high and noble endeavor to establish something objective in guidance of our human proclivities. As my great Aunt Gretta told me, a man's reach should exceed his grasp.

Management, at it's worst, is the imposition of ideological imperatives upon our nation, state, or local governance.

I am guilty of trying out a variety of starting points at various times, and I enjoy trying to trace out where they lead......

Nobody should dispense with their reason in dealing with anything I say.

You and I disagree here and there, but this is one solid post, babe. I'm with you that base philosophy predicates the application of science, whether we like it or not. The irrepressible pollyanna in me does think somewhere down the road-- very, very far down the road-- it starts to turn into a chicken-before-the egg situation, and we can at least sometimes be more deliberate in prioritizing scientific knowledge/advancement over dogmatic persistence as a guiding principle. I wonder if we're anywhere close to that at this stage of human history. Current events suggest otherwise, don't they?

 

[babe]

I have just about decided this looks like the biggest con game in history.

Here's one item, in the USA stats per Worldometer, today. We are reporting a cumulative total of just under one million cases in this country, about 0.25% of our population. The same con artists site claims just under 120K "closed" cases, including 55k Covid deaths. 15 days ago, they reported just over 500K total cases. Cases don't last longer than that, on average. 15 days should be long enough for any diagnosed case to resolve itself, except for a few more serious cases. So they are grossly under reporting recovered patients, for the probable purpose of bolstering the supposed "Pandemic". The Pandemic is anemic, or it's extremely impacted by our mitigating efforts. Probably both.

Within a few days ago, our "Science" caught up with my early assertion, which I gleaned out of peer-reviewed literature regarding Corona Virus in general, and a look at the Covid virus EM image. Six weeks ago I was telling you folks that this virus is killed by UV light, Chlorine vapors or aerosols, and alcohol, as well as soap. Now in a recent Press Conference, the authorities are confirming my assertions, after doing some pretty fancy lab work inside drums with differing atmospheric additives. And, of course, I presume, isotopically labeled virus particles which if killed(broken up) would not be counted on the filter used to collected whole virus particles. With positive and negative controls and all. With a variety of exposure times as well. This kind of study is very solid and very convincing, answering almost every sort of question.

 

[Gameface]

"relying" on the Worldometer stats, in the USA, we have now tested 4.3 M people (1.2%) biased to outbreak areas rather than a uniform survey of Americans. We report 0.2% positive cases in the nation....850k total. We fear a large number of "asymptomatic" carriers out and about, that's why we think it good to do the isolation/social distance. Maybe as many as 95% of Covid infectives unknown/undetectable vaping out invisible covid globules to folks nearby. infective slime accumulating on every surface near where they stand.

Here's my attempt to unmask these irrational notions that are driving public policies.

If we have say 0.2 %(1 in 500) persons known to have the virus, some dead.... some over with it, no doubt, and if 90% of the infected are presently undetected, we would have 1.8 % (1 in 55) people presently infective carriers prowling about spreading the disease. That's 6.5M people out there with the virus. If we do a million tests in three days, and come up with 80k new cases, if they were a random set correspondent to the whole of the US, that's a positive rate of 8%. That would mean in all the US, we have 29 M infective carriers. So of course, we have to realize that maybe 80% of the tests are going to symptomatic folks, and most of those tests are still negative (less than 20% positive) So I say the 90% undetected is just wrong. The virus is not that inconsequential, but it is also not spreading exponentially. I think it safe to say that our stats are falsified by maybe 10% to 20% positive covid cases, and that maybe the death reports are inflated due to other real causes of death that would have been deaths for cause, but even taking the stats as given, the number of infective carriers we're hiding from is less than 1 in 200 people, with each infective maybe capable of infecting a large number of people if in contact with them. So, somewhere between Panic and Denial we need to find some line of reason.

Hard to say how much of our stats are due to better testing, and discovery of positives versus the already ill patients coming in to the doctors. But with testing 300 k/d, we are still at 25K new cases per day, as we were on March 31 with sketchy testing. But obviously, we are catching some cases earlier through testing, and thus better able to treat them effectively. But my guess is we have maybe half the infective population "out there", which combined with people's general caution will mean a lower transmission factor than we had around March 15. I also think we still under reporting recovered cases by half the claimed stat. But we are clearly way over the worst of the danger already, and there is room to discuss how to get back to productive work. A lot of people can go back to work now.

Just keep ramping up the testing. antibody and antigen/PCR tests, a couple million a day. Test business work groups, and let them go to work. With social distancing precautions in place, with masks. Without Mass Transit.....or with social distancing and testing measures, say temp measurements with those nifty laser thingys.

You could have made a perfectly rational point about the actual infection rate vs the serious cases and deaths, but then you decided to start talking about "falsified stats." To be clear "falsified stats" are stats that have been intentionally changed to provide false results. You could have continued making a rational argument if you had talked about incorrect stats, misleading stats, inaccurate stats, or even flawed stats. But instead you decided to go off about falsified stats. For ****s sake man, seriously, I know you're old as ****, but grow up!

 

[Gameface]

I have just about decided this looks like the biggest con game in history.

Here's one item, in the USA stats per Worldometer, today. We are reporting a cumulative total of just under one million cases in this country, about 0.25% of our population. The same con artists site claims just under 120K "closed" cases, including 55k Covid deaths. 15 days ago, they reported just over 500K total cases. Cases don't last longer than that, on average. 15 days should be long enough for any diagnosed case to resolve itself, except for a few more serious cases. So they are grossly under reporting recovered patients, for the probable purpose of bolstering the supposed "Pandemic". The Pandemic is anemic, or it's extremely impacted by our mitigating efforts. Probably both.

Within a few days ago, our "Science" caught up with my early assertion, which I gleaned out of peer-reviewed literature regarding Corona Virus in general, and a look at the Covid virus EM image. Six weeks ago I was telling you folks that this virus is killed by UV light, Chlorine vapors or aerosols, and alcohol, as well as soap. Now in a recent Press Conference, the authorities are confirming my assertions, after doing some pretty fancy lab work inside drums with differing atmospheric additives. And, of course, I presume, isotopically labeled virus particles which if killed(broken up) would not be counted on the filter used to collected whole virus particles. With positive and negative controls and all. With a variety of exposure times as well. This kind of study is very solid and very convincing, answering almost every sort of question.

To be recovered they have to actually test negative. Oh wait, no, this is a big con job. Carry on you stable genius, you.

 

[babe]

You could have made a perfectly rational point about the actual infection rate vs the serious cases and deaths, but then you decided to start talking about "falsified stats." To be clear "falsified stats" are stats that have been intentionally changed to provide false results. You could have continued making a rational argument if you had talked about incorrect stats, misleading stats, inaccurate stats, or even flawed stats. But instead you decided to go off about falsified stats. For ****s sake man, seriously, I know you're old as ****, but grow up!

I find this observation actually solid. Thank you for the contribution.

If I am not alone in my rush to impose my judgments of motives on actual science, it is still less than worthy as a logical method.

 

[babe]

To be recovered they have to actually test negative. Oh wait, no, this is a big con job. Carry on you stable genius, you.

Actually, to be recovered requires no objective test. It only requires the medical or biological fact of a patient for whatever reason, to have overcome the virus and to have cleared the pathogen.

similarly, to "be a con job" in a case like this, requires some motivated media, some snake oil salesman, or some political exploitation.... some kind of effort for whatever reason we may have, to make use of the crisis, which we all know, is an imperative for some ideological proponents of some political or sociological transformation of our ways of life.

People suspicious of some kind of "con job" are often correct on that fact, whether they know anything in particular about it or not. I mean, it's hard to go wrong even if ignorant of the facts, that someone is "conspiring" with other, similarly motivated activists, to make use of anything for political purposes. Such efforts are, indeed, practically universal truths of human nature. Almost every child is subjected to parents who have some unstated purposes in life, some higher designs or hopes, for their children.... which, if openly professed, would generate some obstinate backlash from the little rebels.

 

[babe]

Philosophy needs to follow the science. Not the other way around. Live in the numbers, direct towards the management.

You seem to think fringe philosophy is where you start. This is not normal, or reasonable.

Any professional in whatever specialization, is trained towards "normalized" solutions or actions. That is what being a professional is actually all about.

Standardization of reason and the implementation of reasoned actions.

But there is always room for critics who wish to scrutinize management somehow. The real test is whether we can find, and apply good reason in doing that.

 

[babe]

So, today I have a little time, and have landed in my roost with my internet connections. Probably, anyone who has occasionally perused my ruminations( a word I prefer for it's connection with bovine dining), probably knows I generally do fairly good at "social distancing". Well, having no human living within my horizonal limits, is pretty good "social distancing". I can even just disregard wearing my N95 mask if I like, when I am that far "out there".

But I also routinely go to places like Berkeley or Pasadena....shall I say Hollywood?...… as well. About three weeks ago, I took a trip around the loop... and had some radiator issues on I-5. I did little three minute "runs" to get into a town with an O'Reilly's..... an agricultural center I believe, to get a radiator cap, some coolant, and some advice. I was taken in.... I could say "conned" but that would be the worst possible attitude I could take on the facts.... by some probably immigrant counter help, and sent to a friend who does after-hours repairs on his driveway.

I was able to coordinate paying him via Paypal just having my daughter and his daughter on their phones, and he was able to secure a new radiator from his friends at the store, and he did the job inside of two hours even with me watching

He even listened to me telling him all I imagine I know about Covid. I offered him the hope that he would be able to return to his regular job in a few weeks.

The rest of my trip I had my air conditioner on, and no further difficulties. I am practically planning to drive some of my older cars around that loop in hopes of getting them fixed along the way, now that I know some good mechanical help is out there.

 

[babe]

So, before looking up news articles or stat sites, here are my random thoughts on the "Pandemic". I have been hearing news on the radio about some antibody testing in places like San Jose, Bakersfield, and LA. Positive tests..... allegedly showing a person has developed specific Covid-19 antibodies, if not immunity to Covid…. are running pretty much at 10% of the general population, or higher, though I doubt chidden are being tested in scientifically valid proportions, and I'm pretty sure adults going to doctors are over-represented. But, since this is what we have to speculate about, I can just register my astonishment.

A few posts above I was questioning the stats doubting whether even 1% of our general population had actually experienced the virus yet.

I'm also hearing about LA getting "hot" for Covid now, even while NY is cooling off. And about how some minorities are being pretty much disproportionately affected. I think that might mean Bakersfield …..

But the news about NY city and state is that even more of us are potentially immune, and the stats we have look more like it's a factor of maybe 40 for asymptomatic Covid versus those who are getting attention for having symptoms...… Which if true is pretty compelling for the claim of very high transmission factors for this virus.

It looks like we will wind down this "Pandemic" with about 1% of our population medically affected, and about 40% of our population potentially "immune", having acquired specific antibodies. A figure which if true, mitigates quite strongly against serious outbreaks in the near future.

And with our preparations for giving needed care, it looks like our mortality rate will end up being on the order of 0.2%..... about the same as annual flu seasons.

All that, in my mind, works toward a belief that, had we not sone the travel restrictions and guidelines, our medical care providers would have been swamped, and care would have suffered, and I think perhaps 5X as many people would have died, if not more.

The question now is how to rebuild our economy.....

 

[babe]

Wow.

Rhode Island is leading the testing, having about 65k tests per million population, followed by New York, New Jersey, Louisiana, North Dakota, and Utah. Hardly any Covid in ND, or Utah..... or RI. I mean as in no outbreak event.

Average antigen testing now about 2%.

Total cases now just under 1.1 M in the USA to April 30. averaging under 25k new cases per day. The PanicMeter site, as I have begun terming Worldometer, still has the linear cumulative sketch which masks the downward drift of the daily case count we are marking while accelerating general testing. Almost 2.5M tests in the past 4 days. About 100X the "new case count, which is surely biased in favor of walk-in symptomatic folks asking for the test. Our death count is going

Online resources are clearly biased toward suppressing available information that is inconsistent with "Panic", and promoting "Panic" reporting.

So I turn to the Panic Promoting Sites for my information, which still shows less than 1% of our population being tested is testing positive for the antigen, far less than 1%, while more than 10% of our population has immunity now. This disproportionate positive antibody result appears to be holding even in rural areas having no outbreak event, which means our population has significant immunity to the supposed "novel" or "new" virus, which is a splice of existing viruses we have already had some experience with.

The stats still show a disproportion mortality well above ordinary flu, which even my speculative counting anomaly suspicions probably can't just diss, which sustains the lethality of the Sars-Corona Virus we call Covid.

Kids with their flu shots up to date might have some co-immunity to Covid????

 

[babe]

Well, nobody is out there with any reports I haven't already discussed in here on the antibody testing, which is I believe being done now by the thousands every day. But here is perhaps an good source to begin with, which explains pretty well "why" scientists are not so much jumping up on soapboxes shouting "Eureka!!!!!" over results......

some serious non-correlatable differences between various antibody tests and no good way to compile results.

Again, the reports of much higher antibody-positive results do not answer some fundamental issues..... no way to get quick answers to some questions. How much "herd immunity" exists, and how that might be the reason why we are getting surprisingly high positive results to Covid-19.

The stats do show some trends towards lower numbers of "serious" cases, and towards a lower than we feared mortality rate among Covid patients.


And a lot of people especially in the hinterlands outside the "hot spots" are really just going back to work, whatever the orders given may be. A lot of businesses have found ways to go on doing business with some kind of precautions in place.....lots of plexiglass shields at counters, lots of masked encounters, and a whole lot of distancing being implemented in work places.

There was one report claiming actual detrimental effects of HCQ, but other than being announced in the Press, the authors appear to be unwilling to publish it.....maybe something wrong with the science.....

I'll be looking for it.

 

[babe]

Here's an article on HCQ, just two weeks old...

https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/hydroxychloroquine-for-covid-19-what-do-the-clinical-trials-tell-us/


While I have skimmed through it, it needs some detailed and thoughtful review, but amazingly, my bias is already triggered. It looks like a report that says "No really good studies have been done yet" and "Nobody really knows anything" and "Everybody is screwing up their studies".

Meanwhile, there are still no reports in the hopper evaluating the questions of why a billion people in India on a massive public health program designed to eradicate malaria just aren't getting Covid-19.

 

[babe]

in summary, a rational discusson of covid using worldometer or even CDC stats is impossible, especially in a propaganda mill.

the virus is real enough. the stats are being worked hard.

 

[babe]

Major issues:

Falsified positive reports incentivised with cash gov bribes to caregivers/hospitals.

official policies that force inclusion of non-covid symtoms/deaths due to other stuff,

Looks like the Panic was a flop. Lets get back to work,

 

[One Brow]

Major issues:

Falsified positive reports incentivised with cash gov bribes to caregivers/hospitals.

Evidence?

officiaacial policies that force inclusion of non-covid symtoms/deaths due to other stuff,

How is this different from the reports of annual flu deaths?

 

[babe]

you imagine I'm a government investigative authority like William Barr. What I am is a more like a shipwrecked sailor on a desert island listening to a radio, but who has not actually gone insane like the rest of humanity and still capable of rational thought and correct deductive correlation of what I hear.

when I looked at the CDC stats and graphs of this season's flu, asserted to be compiled on the results of testing for strains and such, I saw an unnatural distribution/incidence graph that rationally could only have been produced if the authorities/doctors had just simply stopped running the dam tests for some reason, which lined up chronologically with an almost perfect amount of new covid cases being classifiec as such without requiring actual diagnostic testing.

no rational human could just believe those cases were really covid, without proof.

 

[One Brow]

you imagine I'm a government investigative authority like William Barr. What I am is a more like a shipwrecked sailor on a desert island listening to a radio, but who has not actually gone insane like the rest of humanity and still capable of rational thought and correct deductive correlation of what I hear.

when I looked at the CDC stats and graphs of this season's flu, asserted to be compiled on the results of testing for strains and such, I saw an unnatural distribution/incidence graph that rationally could only have been produced if the authorities/doctors had just simply stopped running the dam tests for some reason, which lined up chronologically with an almost perfect amount of new covid cases being classifiec as such without requiring actual diagnostic testing.

no rational human could just believe those cases were really covid, without proof.

Could you think to this unnatural graph? How about any evidence the testing was not being done?

 

[babe]

Could you think to this unnatural graph? How about any evidence the testing was not being done?

I think you meant to ask me for the link, I posted the link in this thread in early April. It doesn't Google anymore, plus there's a factcheck denial link saying, without substantiating evidence, that the claim is false...… of course after substantially miss-stating the thesis.

The question is if there have been policies or persons motivated to turn in reports of Covid that actually were not Covid, for perhaps a variety of reasons. The financial incentive for a hospital or caregiver is the Fed reimbursement under current law/policy.

The other thing I mentioned was the sharp decline in flu cases during late Fed/Mar which I Think is compiled from testing patient samples sent in for testing, They study the known flu strain incidence. This decline kicked in before social distancing was going on, which may have helped end the flu as well as covid outbreak.

I have been grousing about the presumptive Covid reports which are sometimes based on flu symptoms, with no testing.