Rational CoViD-19 Discussion Thread: Science vs. Politics

One Brow

Well-Known Member
I have been grousing about the presumptive Covid reports which are sometimes based on flu symptoms, with no testing.
Flu normally declines in March-April. However, I agree there are probably cases of covid19 diagnosed as flu, and vice-versa.
 

babe

Well-Known Member
Normal incidence stats have some degree of symmetry on the rates as they rise then fall. If you see an abnormal pattern, it's reasonable to explore or study or research for an explanation.

I'm have no doubts that without a diagnostic test, between illnesses sharing some significant common symptoms our guesses will normally distribute with some equal trends for wrong guesses one way or the other,

If, without some reason, all the "guesses" go the same way, I suppose it may be more popular to have the one getting the attributions...… but it is actually a perverse incentive existing in more doctors wanting to plump the charges or get a gov payout for the "right" attribution, to choose to call it something that pays better. No doubt this is some trend in the covid stats, pretty hard to evaluate without authority to check the records and test the former patients for antibodies. But a serious epidemiologist doing a competent research project would do something capable of quantifying the behavior/reports. The fact that our gov will not fund such research is a proof of a deliberate political intent to maintain a falsehood.
for whatever reason.
 

One Brow

Well-Known Member
Normal incidence stats have some degree of symmetry on the rates as they rise then fall. If you see an abnormal pattern, it's reasonable to explore or study or research for an explanation.
Not if they are unknown and highly contagious. You'd expect a large degree of left-skewing.
 

One Brow

Well-Known Member
It's not. The difference is that we don't spend 5 trillion dollars and shut down the country for the flu.
Flu has not killed as many people over any two consecutive years in the past 20 as covid19 has in the past two months.
 

fishonjazz

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It's not. The difference is that we don't spend 5 trillion dollars and shut down the country for the flu.
There are other differences. The entire world (not just the US) is recognizing that this isn't the flu.
This is killing way more people in the world than the flu does in any year (and it's only been around for a few months rather than a year) and that's even with the measures that have been employed.
There is no vaccine for covid19.

Those are a few off the top of my head. I'm sure there are more differences.


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babe

Well-Known Member
No fear mongers please.

Covid is changing pretty rapidly, some say "mutating" into strains that survive better somehow. But the severity of the disease is also changing. Less lethal, more survivable.

I'm not being rational about this anymore. Seriously, there is no basis for any rational analysis here. We are getting too many fake victims, no real scrutiny goes into the numbers we're getting.

The FDA renewed warnings against non-patentable treatments. Some say Fauci and Gates are invested in the leading vaccine development. Some are saying we will be issued vaccination papers necessary to get access to gas pumps and groceries.

The idea of governments using mass pathogens to control populations is as old as Lucifer. Didn't want to see it this way. Wanted to believe the science. Just can't, not anymore.

The fact with this virus is that for anything that is genetically derived to have this high a "binding coefficient" , it must follow that it will naturally degrade over time and become more of a regular sort of illness.

For any virus to survive as a pathogen over a long period of time, or recur regularly or seasonally, with such lethality as we were told this has, is a statistical anomaly. What it's called in statistics is "Regression to the Mean", a kind of expectation that humans will survive on some genetic success formula, and the disease will mellow out to something we can survive if we are healthy.
 

Ron Mexico

Well-Known Member
Contributor
No fear mongers please.

Covid is changing pretty rapidly, some say "mutating" into strains that survive better somehow. But the severity of the disease is also changing. Less lethal, more survivable.

I'm not being rational about this anymore. Seriously, there is no basis for any rational analysis here. We are getting too many fake victims, no real scrutiny goes into the numbers we're getting.

The FDA renewed warnings against non-patentable treatments. Some say Fauci and Gates are invested in the leading vaccine development. Some are saying we will be issued vaccination papers necessary to get access to gas pumps and groceries.

The idea of governments using mass pathogens to control populations is as old as Lucifer. Didn't want to see it this way. Wanted to believe the science. Just can't, not anymore.

The fact with this virus is that for anything that is genetically derived to have this high a "binding coefficient" , it must follow that it will naturally degrade over time and become more of a regular sort of illness.

For any virus to survive as a pathogen over a long period of time, or recur regularly or seasonally, with such lethality as we were told this has, is a statistical anomaly. What it's called in statistics is "Regression to the Mean", a kind of expectation that humans will survive on some genetic success formula, and the disease will mellow out to something we can survive if we are healthy.
Well, you held out longer than I would have guessed.


Do you have any reasonable evidence of the virus changing? I've yet to see proof of that although it's seems possible and even likely.
 

babe

Well-Known Member
Well, you held out longer than I would have guessed.


Do you have any reasonable evidence of the virus changing? I've yet to see proof of that although it's seems possible and even likely.
All I have evidence of is my cows are still having calves.... everything else has to just sorta steam outta the top of my head.

Looking at the remarks on Sweden, I can only wonder. Seems like they did OK for a while without a shutdown..... who knows..... lots of people in the hot tubs while the cold weather lasted. Now.... who knows..... they're walking in the streets and smiling, if not coughing. Maybe just a change in social activities here.....

But if "herd immunity" is going to be a long-range hope, I would have guessed they're over that critical mass of immune people.... which is often about 60% of the population where the transmittal really drops off.

Since it doesn't look like "herd immunity" really kicked in, my next wonder is why..... and a rapidly changing virus could do that. dunno.

Plus, early on, there were quite a few hot shot PCR eggheads with more machines than they really needed for other work. All kinds of stuff about different strains and tracking them across the world. With two major varieties in play by mid January, and assuming the first showed up in December, we should have a monthly doubling or better in strains showing up..... over 50 by now if not a zillion. Most strains would just die out because of some failure caused by the mutation, some might think. Most new strains would likely be less concerning because the properties that make this so fearsome are statistically improbable to begin with, and any alterations would reduce the effectiveness.....

bs, maybe.

nice to have someone to talk to besides cows.
 

Jonah

Well-Known Member
All I have evidence of is my cows are still having calves.... everything else has to just sorta steam outta the top of my head.

Looking at the remarks on Sweden, I can only wonder. Seems like they did OK for a while without a shutdown..... who knows..... lots of people in the hot tubs while the cold weather lasted. Now.... who knows..... they're walking in the streets and smiling, if not coughing. Maybe just a change in social activities here.....

But if "herd immunity" is going to be a long-range hope, I would have guessed they're over that critical mass of immune people.... which is often about 60% of the population where the transmittal really drops off.

Since it doesn't look like "herd immunity" really kicked in, my next wonder is why..... and a rapidly changing virus could do that. dunno.

Plus, early on, there were quite a few hot shot PCR eggheads with more machines than they really needed for other work. All kinds of stuff about different strains and tracking them across the world. With two major varieties in play by mid January, and assuming the first showed up in December, we should have a monthly doubling or better in strains showing up..... over 50 by now if not a zillion. Most strains would just die out because of some failure caused by the mutation, some might think. Most new strains would likely be less concerning because the properties that make this so fearsome are statistically improbable to begin with, and any alterations would reduce the effectiveness.....

bs, maybe.

nice to have someone to talk to besides cows.
Sweden is still nowhere close to herd immunity. At most they’re at about 20 percent in Stockholm which has been the hardest hit city.
 

babe

Well-Known Member
Sweden is still nowhere close to herd immunity. At most they’re at about 20 percent in Stockholm which has been the hardest hit city.
I know nothing. Extrapolation from a few inane news blips. I thought they were not doing anything at all to slow it down. With 90% undiagnosed non symptomatic spreaders, and maybe two weeks each on the prowl, it should have gotten to everybody inside three weeks..... Making it news that Sweden is now getting a new spike, what gives.
 

Jonah

Well-Known Member
I know nothing. Extrapolation from a few inane news blips. I thought they were not doing anything at all to slow it down. With 90% undiagnosed non symptomatic spreaders, and maybe two weeks each on the prowl, it should have gotten to everybody inside three weeks..... Making it news that Sweden is now getting a new spike, what gives.
Sweden took a softer approach in that schools and restaurants have remained open but large gatherings have been banned and social distancing is encouraged. The soft approach strategy is based on the idea that it’s something people can better abide long-term, as in a year or more, it has never been open everything, do nothing, and this will all be over in a few weeks.
 

babe

Well-Known Member
Sweden took a softer approach in that schools and restaurants have remained open but large gatherings have been banned and social distancing is encouraged. The soft approach strategy is based on the idea that it’s something people can better abide long-term, as in a year or more, it has never been open everything, do nothing, and this will all be over in a few weeks.
Thanks for this information.
 

babe

Well-Known Member
Because herd immunity never kicks in absent an intensive vaccination program.
Probably. Thanks for the assertion.

How did that work with the American Indians and smallpox? Europeans could deliberatelys sell infectedl blankets to the natives, then after a short while, just move in with a smile. With no vaccine.
 

One Brow

Well-Known Member
Probably. Thanks for the assertion.

How did that work with the American Indians and smallpox? Europeans could deliberatelys sell infectedl blankets to the natives, then after a short while, just move in with a smile. With no vaccine.
1) Smallpox killed a lot of Europeans, so there was no herd immunity.
2) Even before vaccines, people would undergo inoculation. Washington required this process in 1777 for Continental soldiers. This practice did increase resistance.
3) Native Americans did not instigate the same quarantine practices as the Europeans, so were more vulnerable to disease spread.
4) There's only one know instance of an attempt to spread smallpox by blankets.
 

babe

Well-Known Member
1) Smallpox killed a lot of Europeans, so there was no herd immunity.
2) Even before vaccines, people would undergo inoculation. Washington required this process in 1777 for Continental soldiers. This practice did increase resistance.
3) Native Americans did not instigate the same quarantine practices as the Europeans, so were more vulnerable to disease spread.
4) There's only one know instance of an attempt to spread smallpox by blankets.
The British used it against Pontiac's allies.
 

babe

Well-Known Member
Well, you held out longer than I would have guessed.


Do you have any reasonable evidence of the virus changing? I've yet to see proof of that although it's seems possible and even likely.
I see reasonable evidence that authorities are changing their opinions. Discussions of the actual genome are being systematically suppressed on the net, and not published in the peer reviewed journals.
 

babe

Well-Known Member
I see reasonable evidence that authorities are changing their opinions. Discussions of the actual genome are being systematically suppressed on the net, and not published in the peer reviewed journals.


The posting system appears to have a glitch. I get to reply, but cannot just start a fresh comment.

I haven't been paying very much attention to this since I got disgusted with the lack of a solid scientific reporting system. The various categories of presumptive diagnosis reports, unsupported by dependable testing of any kind, just drove me nuts.

But Fauci and his sidekick who used to stand up with Trump and throw out incredibly stupid numbers and scare everybody became so despised in the public for their wild talk, even Trump couldn't use them.

But the new surge appears real. People who work in the care business are saying the cases are coming in.

I think it is the unimproved air conditioning systems many places like bars or nightclubs..... almost every business..... has in place. The moving air floats the virus. The moving air is not cleaned and creates a moving stream of suspended dust or other particles that can carry the virus and recirculate it. Apartments, particular larger multiple units with common air conditioning......

It is easy enough to install a strong uv light across a chamber in the duct work that would disinfect the recirculated air. Common particle filters, and electrostatic systems can remove most particles.

Too many kids think the danger is not real.
 
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babe

Well-Known Member
I'm thinking that my sources in the care end of this issue are confirming the new wave. People are coming in sick.

My first wild guess as to "why" goes to the air conditioning systems.....

old, unimproved systems recirculate air without any cleaning in the process. Such systems collect and recirculate floating particles and dust. Such particles can carry the virus and keep it suspended much longer.

It's easy enough to install uv disinfectant chambers in the ductwork, as well as actual filters or electrostatic units that will collect the particles.

bars, nightclubs, movie theaters, stores, motels, apartments, care centers, hospitals should improve their HVAC.

Some of it also has to be kids disregarding good sense, I suppose.
 
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