What's new
By:
Filters

Trade Rumors Involving the Jazz

Trade Mitchell while his value is at its highest.

Mitchell for Trent Jr, OG, and Precious plus picks. We know have the best defense in the NBA by a lot and the offense doesn't suffer much. We also move Conley and possibly others. Trent is one of the best guard defenders in the NBA. OG is a great defender and Precious has a solid upside.

Since that has almost 0 chance then we 100% have to move Gobert unless Mitchell has told the FO he wants to stay and he wants Gobert here.

Sadly the reality is we wont trade anything but ****** fringe moves.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
No it wasn’t… it was solid. 4/2023 1st, Barnes/Davion is totally fair.
Click to expand...

I think #4 is being overrated here. The expected value on that pick is not why people think of when they think top 5 pick. 2023 is likely to be a mid round first….again people need to use understand the EV on that pick.

Davion isn’t a great prospect. Was bad at age 23 which makes him closer to a second draft type of guy. Barnes is a nice player, but it’s Donovan freaking Mitchell. At least take the Knicks package at this point. This trade honestly makes me want to barf.
 
KqWIN said:
I think #4 is being overrated here. The expected value on that pick is not why people think of when they think top 5 pick. 2023 is likely to be a mid round first….again people need to use understand the EV on that pick.

Davion isn’t a great prospect. Was bad at age 23 which makes him closer to a second draft type of guy. Barnes is a nice player, but it’s Donovan freaking Mitchell. At least take the Knicks package at this point. This trade honestly makes me want to barf.
Click to expand...
I’m not sure any of this is fact based at all… it’s like completely your opinion. Ivey is a great prospect… if not him there will be guys drafted in that range that are worth a top 5 pick. 2023 is far from guaranteed to be a mid first. You really think that’s a playoff team adding Donovan. They might be the worst defense in the league. West is gonna be a blood bath. Davion isn’t the highest upside guy but if the shot straightens out he will be at very least a great third guard or a low end starter. You can easily flip Barnes for another first… how is that HORRID? It’s only horrid when you place bad assumptions on it.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
I’m not sure any of this is fact based at all… it’s like completely your opinion. Ivey is a great prospect… if not him there will be guys drafted in that range that are worth a top 5 pick. 2023 is far from guaranteed to be a mid first. You really think that’s a playoff team adding Donovan. They might be the worst defense in the league. West is gonna be a blood bath. Davion isn’t the highest upside guy but if the shot straightens out he will be at very least a great third guard or a low end starter. You can easily flip Barnes for another first… how is that HORRID? It’s only horrid when you place bad assumptions on it.
Click to expand...

Why do you feel the need to say that I just made that up based on opinion? The expected value of draft picks is well written on and we’ll researched. You know what, I’m just going to say that your opinion is not fact based at all. It’s a zero meaning argument. Go ahead do the 5 second google search if you want to know what the median #4 pick is and we can talk about whose expectations are fact based. Bring me the facts if you’re going to get on my *** about using my “opinion”.

Even if you assumed Donovan Mitchell brought no upgrade to the Kings and we’re sitting at the #7 pick, go head and tell me you’re happy with that median outcome. But that’s not the assumption I’m making. I actually think Donovan Mitchell will help that team win more games.

There are so many players who would be good if only their shot straightened out. Fact is, Davion was very bad as 23 year old player and 23 year old players who are bad are not likely to become solid starters. And no, this wasn’t made up opinion. It’s a fact that Davion was bad last year.

This trade might be good, but only if you use a very optimistic outlook on things. Even if you think picks are the greatest thing in the world, you’re taking the Knicks picks instead.
 
Last edited:
KqWIN said:
Why do you feel the need to say that I just made that up based on opinion? The expected value of draft picks is well written on and we’ll researched. You know what, I’m just going to say that your opinion is not fact based at all. It’s a zero meaning argument. Go ahead do the 5 second google search if you want to know what the median #4 pick is and we can talk about whose expectations are fact based. Bring me the facts if you’re going to get on my *** about using my “opinion”.

Even if you assumed Donovan Mitchell brought no upgrade to the Kings and we’re sitting at the #7 pick, go head and tell me you’re happy with that median outcome. But that’s not the assumption I’m making. I actually think Donovan Mitchell will help that team win more games.

There are so many players who would be good if only their shot straightened out. Fact is, Davion was very bad as 23 year old player and 23 year old players who are bad are not likely to become solid starters. And no, this wasn’t made up opinion. It’s a fact that Davion was bad last year.

This trade might be good, but only if you use a very optimistic outlook on things. Even if you think picks are the greatest thing in the world, you’re taking the Knicks picks instead.
Click to expand...
Opinions was bad word choice… it’s more pessimistic assumptions. When you trade a star you often get a mystery bag of stuff. If you take the NY package for example and assume every pick you get is going to be a mid first rounder then getting 4 of those is pretty meh. I can also just make bad assumptions that Donovan’s ankle problems are a sign he is going to be another injury plagued small guard and you should trade him now.

Whether the EV of #4 is over rated or not is not super relevant. It’s VALUABLE! Say you didn’t love the EV of Ivey… you could flip that pick to NY and get at a min #11 and their pick next year… more likely could get #11, 2023 1st, Quickley, and the Dallas pick they own. So now you have probably the better parts of the NY package you claim is better.

Barnes can easily get you a mid first from Atlanta, Chicago, or Minny.

Davion may not shoot straight… but he has an elite nba skill. Marcus Smart never really shot straight… he’s improved but he’s made it work. Davion is not as diverse of a defender as Smart but he’s very good. Saying a guy might improve his shooting a little is not a wild assumption… lots of guys have done it… even when they weren’t 19. The difference with Davion is he is a 4-5% bump in 3 point shooting from being a decent starter. He still has 3 years on a rookie deal to figure it out. This isn’t like assuming BS will shoot. This is saying a rookie will adjust to a three point line and hopefully hit around 35%… something a bunch of guys have done. Even if he doesn’t he can be a solid 6/7th man. He’s not the equivalent of a second rounder either way lol.

Getting the 7th slot next year (something more likely than the pick being in the mid first round) gives you a 30%+ shot at a top 4 pick… a 7.5% shot at #1. Even staying at 7 you’d have a shot at some all star talent.

Trading Donovan for a couple shots at getting AS talent and a few mid first round fliers is not HORRID. It’s kinda what you get when trading an all star. And the Kings package can be broken up to get the best parts of the Knicks package and betting against the Kings has an EV of pretty ****ing good.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
Opinions was bad word choice… it’s more pessimistic assumptions. When you trade a star you often get a mystery bag of stuff. If you take the NY package for example and assume every pick you get is going to be a mid first rounder then getting 4 of those is pretty meh. I can also just make bad assumptions that Donovan’s ankle problems are a sign he is going to be another injury plagued small guard and you should trade him now.

Whether the EV of #4 is over rated or not is not super relevant. It’s VALUABLE! Say you didn’t love the EV of Ivey… you could flip that pick to NY and get at a min #11 and their pick next year… more likely could get #11, 2023 1st, Quickley, and the Dallas pick they own. So now you have probably the better parts of the NY package you claim is better.

Barnes can easily get you a mid first from Atlanta, Chicago, or Minny.

Davion may not shoot straight… but he has an elite nba skill. Marcus Smart never really shot straight… he’s improved but he’s made it work. Davion is not as diverse of a defender as Smart but he’s very good. Saying a guy might improve his shooting a little is not a wild assumption… lots of guys have done it… even when they weren’t 19. The difference with Davion is he is a 4-5% bump in 3 point shooting from being a decent starter. He still has 3 years on a rookie deal to figure it out. This isn’t like assuming BS will shoot. This is saying a rookie will adjust to a three point line and hopefully hit around 35%… something a bunch of guys have done. Even if he doesn’t he can be a solid 6/7th man. He’s not the equivalent of a second rounder either way lol.

Getting the 7th slot next year (something more likely than the pick being in the mid first round) gives you a 30%+ shot at a top 4 pick… a 7.5% shot at #1. Even staying at 7 you’d have a shot at some all star talent.

Trading Donovan for a couple shots at getting AS talent and a few mid first round fliers is not HORRID. It’s kinda what you get when trading an all star. And the Kings package can be broken up to get the best parts of the Knicks package and betting against the Kings has an EV of pretty ****ing good.
Click to expand...
Plus it would be very gratifying to see Mitchell fail on the Kings
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
Opinions was bad word choice… it’s more pessimistic assumptions. When you trade a star you often get a mystery bag of stuff. If you take the NY package for example and assume every pick you get is going to be a mid first rounder then getting 4 of those is pretty meh. I can also just make bad assumptions that Donovan’s ankle problems are a sign he is going to be another injury plagued small guard and you should trade him now.

Whether the EV of #4 is over rated or not is not super relevant. It’s VALUABLE! Say you didn’t love the EV of Ivey… you could flip that pick to NY and get at a min #11 and their pick next year… more likely could get #11, 2023 1st, Quickley, and the Dallas pick they own. So now you have probably the better parts of the NY package you claim is better.

Barnes can easily get you a mid first from Atlanta, Chicago, or Minny.

Davion may not shoot straight… but he has an elite nba skill. Marcus Smart never really shot straight… he’s improved but he’s made it work. Davion is not as diverse of a defender as Smart but he’s very good. Saying a guy might improve his shooting a little is not a wild assumption… lots of guys have done it… even when they weren’t 19. The difference with Davion is he is a 4-5% bump in 3 point shooting from being a decent starter. He still has 3 years on a rookie deal to figure it out. This isn’t like assuming BS will shoot. This is saying a rookie will adjust to a three point line and hopefully hit around 35%… something a bunch of guys have done. Even if he doesn’t he can be a solid 6/7th man. He’s not the equivalent of a second rounder either way lol.

Getting the 7th slot next year (something more likely than the pick being in the mid first round) gives you a 30%+ shot at a top 4 pick… a 7.5% shot at #1. Even staying at 7 you’d have a shot at some all star talent.

Trading Donovan for a couple shots at getting AS talent and a few mid first round fliers is not HORRID. It’s kinda what you get when trading an all star. And the Kings package can be broken up to get the best parts of the Knicks package and betting against the Kings has an EV of pretty ****ing good.
Click to expand...

It was wild to me to get upset about having an opinion…while then proceeding to give an opinion because this is what we do. It’s a basketball forum. And then to say it’s not fact based when that was the whole point. When you look at the facts and learn what the expected value of a pick is….it’s probably not what you think of when you think of a top 5 pick. Even calling it a pessimistic isn’t right, it’s literally the median outcomes I’m talking about.

I do think it’s relevant if the pieces you get back are overrated. Very relevant in fact. That’s true for #4 and Davion Mitchell who got wildly overrated because of his clippable defensive moments and big numbers in the tankiest of tanky games. I don’t think he’s close to Smart as a defender or player….who at the end of the day is a solid starter/third guard on a contending team. He’s more akin to a Jevon Carter who plays 15 mpg….but I’d argue Carter’s shooting is more functional as a role player than Mitchell’s playmaking. Of course he can improve. Everyone can improve, but not everyone does. If I had a nickel for every player that would have been good if they could just increase their 3FG% by 4-5% I wouldn’t be rich but I’d have a lot of nickels.

I’m not taking a pessimistic look at this. It’s just what I would expect from these pieces. For draft picks, that is well researched. For Davion…yeah he’s ok but definitely not a world beater. I don’t think this trade gives us a good chance to get an all star. If you’re being optimistic on small probabilities on top of other probabilities, of course this trade will be good. You take take an optimistic look at any trade and you can talk yourself into thinking it will be great.

The thing I’ll give you is that whenever you deal with the Kings, you’re probably winning that trade.
 
KqWIN said:
It was wild to me to get upset about having an opinion…while then proceeding to give an opinion because this is what we do. It’s a basketball forum. And then to say it’s not fact based when that was the whole point. When you look at the facts and learn what the expected value of a pick is….it’s probably not what you think of when you think of a top 5 pick. Even calling it a pessimistic isn’t right, it’s literally the median outcomes I’m talking about.

I do think it’s relevant if the pieces you get back are overrated. Very relevant in fact. That’s true for #4 and Davion Mitchell who got wildly overrated because of his clippable defensive moments and big numbers in the tankiest of tanky games. I don’t think he’s close to Smart as a defender or player….who at the end of the day is a solid starter/third guard on a contending team. He’s more akin to a Jevon Carter who plays 15 mpg….but I’d argue Carter’s shooting is more functional as a role player than Mitchell’s playmaking. Of course he can improve. Everyone can improve, but not everyone does. If I had a nickel for every player that would have been good if they could just increase their 3FG% by 4-5% I wouldn’t be rich but I’d have a lot of nickels.

I’m not taking a pessimistic look at this. It’s just what I would expect from these pieces. For draft picks, that is well researched. For Davion…yeah he’s ok but definitely not a world beater. I don’t think this trade gives us a good chance to get an all star. If you’re being optimistic on small probabilities on top of other probabilities, of course this trade will be good. You take take an optimistic look at any trade and you can talk yourself into thinking it will be great.

The thing I’ll give you is that whenever you deal with the Kings, you’re probably winning that trade.
Click to expand...
You’re not being pessimistic but also you just comp’d Davion to Jevon and named Carter the better piece.

You called the deal horrid… vomit inducing… and said take the Knicks package instead. The Knicks package could end up 4 mid firsts but spread further in the future… this deal could give you that plus some. It’s a wild overreaction. What would you expect 4/Barnes/ 3 future firsts? That ain’t out there.

You are calling #4 over-rated… based on what? The top 4 guys are all projected to be pretty damn good. The median outcome of any pick other than #1 is not super amazing… but guess what… you are paying for the chance that it is… becausein top 5 it hits more than in the teens. Maybe you think we should trade Donovan for no incoming picks then? The kings trade is a perfectly fair rebuild trade that may not work out.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
You’re not being pessimistic but also you just comp’d Davion to Jevon and named Carter the better piece.

You called the deal horrid… vomit inducing… and said take the Knicks package instead. The Knicks package could end up 4 mid firsts but spread further in the future… this deal could give you that plus some. It’s a wild overreaction. What would you expect 4/Barnes/ 3 future firsts? That ain’t out there.

You are calling #4 over-rated… based on what? The top 4 guys are all projected to be pretty damn good. The median outcome of any pick other than #1 is not super amazing… but guess what… you are paying for the chance that it is… becausein top 5 it hits more than in the teens. Maybe you think we should trade Donovan for no incoming picks then? The kings trade is a perfectly fair rebuild trade that may not work out.
Click to expand...

I said he’s not akin to Carter than Smart…which is not crazy at all. I think he’s much closer to a role player than a starter on a championship team. Yes he can improve, but he has a long way to go to be a starter. And yes, Carter was better for a team trying to win than Mitchell last year.

I have voiced my opinion several times that I do not like the Knicks package. This Kings package is worse. I don’t think you could trade the Kings package for the Knicks package right now. If the Kings offered this for the Knicks future of picks and young players, I think they’d say hell no.

Do I really need to say again why I think #4 is being overrated? No I don’t. I’ve said it many times, and if you’re seriously asking that question I have no idea what to tell you because what I’ve told you went over your head.
 
KqWIN said:
I said he’s not akin to Carter than Smart…which is not crazy at all. I think he’s much closer to a role player than a starter on a championship team. Yes he can improve, but he has a long way to go to be a starter. And yes, Carter was better for a team trying to win than Mitchell last year.

I have voiced my opinion several times that I do not like the Knicks package. This Kings package is worse. I don’t think you could trade the Kings package for the Knicks package right now. If the Kings offered this for the Knicks future of picks and young players, I think they’d say hell no.

Do I really need to say again why I think #4 is being overrated? No I don’t. I’ve said it many times, and if you’re seriously asking that question I have no idea what to tell you because what I’ve told you went over your head.
Click to expand...
It didn't go over my head at all... but yeah if you look at the theory of drafting and text books you could say "well actually, the EV of pick #9 is not much different than pick #4, so Kings should take #9, #25 for #4 and they'd be much better off". But in the real world pick #4 is going to be traded for much more value than that. Why?

So if you wanted to be the draft nerd EV of picks guy... you could absolutely leverage #4 for at least #11, 2023 NY first, and likely something extra. So you can trade in a $100 mystery grab bag with an EV of $70 for a couple $50 grab bags with an EV of $40 all ****ing day if you want... but on the high end you might get 3-4 $50 grab bags... Why?

Its because the EV of draft picks is nice and a cute theory that doesn't apply directly to real-life NBA trades. Can't remember all the specifics but those articles are kinda funny cuz they will be like "to get from 25 to 15 you should only have to give up two seconds if you follow the EV of draft picks".

Its also hilarious that the practical application of this theory is what allowed us to trade Lyles and 24 to get Donovan... I mean Denver did the EV computations and Lyles plus 24 had and EV that was slightly higher than pick 13.

Your assessment of Davion is fine and all but he was a rookie. I get he was older... but aren't you the guy sitting here saying we should be trying to get guys that can increase their value? Aren't you saying we should look for Wiggins projects. Maybe Davion only has a 20% chance of being a 37%ish 3p shooter... but if he does figure that out he's a much better player than Carter. Carter can't drive and create for others at all. Also - lets go look at Jevon's stats as a 23 yo rookie... ohhhh he shot 30% and 33% on threes... that is way better than Davion who was... 42% and 32%... its almost like there was an adjustment and Jevon needed some time to figure it out. As far as how functional it was as a role player... well Carter hit 36% on catch and shoot 3s and Davion was 33%.

You can have your nickels for the guys that didn't figure it out... you get a $1 for the ones that do and we need $1s. I mean if he turns out to shoot it as well as Carter then he's a super version of Carter... I don't think it is unreasonable to think he could do it... since the guy you comp'd him to in fact made a bigger leap. A dynamic version of Carter that can actually dribble and create a bit would be a solid low level starter. He may not do it but its a fine bet to make... if you wanted to separate him out of the deal I think you could easily get a pick in the 20s for him.

Its just funny you think it goes over my head... you are making the simp mistake of thinking Donovan is worth way more than he actually is if you think this trade is HORRID. Its in the window of fair.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Share this page

Top