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Its Time to Tank

Elizah Huge said:
I could be wrong but I thought I heard the salary he was going to make in the NBA was extremely enticing. I bet he gets paid a lot more in the NBA than the league he was in.
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that and if he breaks through and hits FA in 1.5 years he could be looking at like a $10M a year payday.
 
fishonjazz said:
This. Great post. I would love to go into next off season like that. Add a few good free agents and draft well and we are going to the playoffs with guys who will actually be here in a few years when we are truly trying to contend.
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And this FA crop isn't great but there will be guys in their 20s that are functional role players available in the 8-15M range. Some guys I'd have interest in:

Tre Jones - Restricted and SA likely keeps him
Jalen McDaniels
Max Strus
Naz Reid
Gary Trent
Grant Williams - likely stays
Cam Johnson - likely stays
Josh Hart
Austin Reeves
Ayo Dosunmu
Javonte Green

There are some high end guys too but doubt we get in on those. Could grab 2 or 3 guys from the list above and have another building block going forward.
 
The problem with FA is Utah struggles to land guys and has to overpay a lot often especially for guys that we don't have their bird rights.
 
Ron Mexico said:
The problem with FA is Utah struggles to land guys and has to overpay a lot often especially for guys that we don't have their bird rights.
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Yep. That's why we're mostly going to have to build through trades and the draft. We got lucky with guys like Boozer, Memo and Bogey...we initially overpaid to get them to sign here, but they played so well that in the end their contracts were very fair for their production and not an overpay at all.
 
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Ron Mexico said:
The problem with FA is Utah struggles to land guys and has to overpay a lot often especially for guys that we don't have their bird rights.
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If you ask NBA fans, like 95% will say their team has that problem (even Chicago, which is a huge market). Everyone likes to think all the premium free agents flock to a few cities (NY, LA, Miami) and give those teams all kinds of warm weather / big market discounts.

Obviously, that's far from the truth.

1) There ARE very few marquee free agents these days, the types who are real difference makers. That's the main reason everyone ends up overpaying meh dudes instead. It's not a Utah problem.

2) Guys will go where the money is and where they can get minutes to lay the base for their next contract. Winning is the third factor.
 
Ron Mexico said:
I don't think that is true at all. They might have higher upside but not ready to play. Usually the guys ready to play are taken late 1st round by good teams looking for role players and 4 year college players.
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The bigger myth is drafting the nba ready guy… more talented players will produce earlier… the higher you draft the more talent you have access to. You can find raw guys at any point in the draft that are super long term projects.
 
Tremendous Upside said:
If you ask NBA fans, like 95% will say their team has that problem (even Chicago, which is a huge market). Everyone likes to think all the premium free agents flock to a few cities (NY, LA, Miami) and give those teams all kinds of warm weather / big market discounts.

Obviously, that's far from the truth.

1) There ARE very few marquee free agents these days, the types who are real difference makers. That's the main reason everyone ends up overpaying meh dudes instead. It's not a Utah problem.

2) Guys will go where the money is and where they can get minutes to lay the base for their next contract. Winning is the third factor.
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We can get a bogey level guy here and there. It just be nice to flip Mike KO into guys that can produce longer term… and if you get some draft goodies too that is great.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
I also like that OKC has already risen out of the tanking ranks and likely makes the play in… did it in 3 years and without the benefit of their most recent lotto prospect while also stacking the deck with picks and simultaneously building a great reputation among vets like CP and Horford.
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First of all OKC future looks bright I will give you that.. but they are not yet a contender so lets not use them as a "prime benchmark" prematurely. Secondly, the guy who is their lone all star and carrying them towards the play-in is drafted #13 and not even by OKC. Thirdly, Chet had one big concern coming out of college, which was.... well.. potential injuries. I don't know how many games Chet will play next season, but the red flag is certainly still there.

However there is a very good benchmark team in this league... which is Memphis. They are still pretty well set in terms of draft assets despite looking extremely competitive. They blew up the team in 2017 and drafted JJJ and Ja in the next 2 drafts... along with Dillon Brooks. Added Bane one year later with a late pick.

I would put us on the 3rd season (2019-20, finished 34-39) in their timeline.. seeing we got an all star along with a great starting piece and potential future all star with some guys behind them showing promise. Our record also indicates we are playing at that level. We have more assets than they did at that point, but we also have slightly more needs to round out the roster and are older than they were back then. Also having Lauri and Kessler still on cheap contracts gives us incredible flexibility in terms of trading and signing FA to round out the roster.

Tanking now and thinking those top of the draft rookies would make us better than we were this year with these vets is not realistic. If we tank now, we will be bad next year as well. I dont know if there ever was a team who tanked without major injuries and rebounded to be good the following year. If we suck next year that might push the top 10 protected 2024 FRP we owe forward to 2025 which would be risky since from 2026 onwards our picks have swap rights with CLE/MIN. It would also push our window forward, and push us further away from that Memphis timeline.

Drafting well this year is very important... but staying competitive is also important for the reasons outlined above. So DA being opportunistic instead of going all in on either win-now / tank is the best approach. The notion we are gonna tank is not supported by any rumors or anything DA has said or done this year. I would much rather discuss other ways to build our way towards the top.
 
HermanG said:
I dont know if there ever was a team who tanked without major injuries and rebounded to be good the following year.
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So what you are saying is we should go the spurs route. We need Lauri to pull a david robinson and then draft a tim duncan. ;)


Sent from my iPad using JazzFanz mobile app
 
fishonjazz said:
So what you are saying is we should go the spurs route. We need Lauri to pull a david robinson and then draft a tim duncan. ;)


Sent from my iPad using JazzFanz mobile app
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So you want Lauri to get injured and miss next season?

I'm mostly joking. On a side note I hope/wish Kessler could develop a few unstoppable moves like Duncan. I think his defense is going to be close to his.
 
HermanG said:
First of all OKC future looks bright I will give you that.. but they are not yet a contender so lets not use them as a "prime benchmark" prematurely. Secondly, the guy who is their lone all star and carrying them towards the play-in is drafted #13 and not even by OKC. Thirdly, Chet had one big concern coming out of college, which was.... well.. potential injuries. I don't know how many games Chet will play next season, but the red flag is certainly still there.

However there is a very good benchmark team in this league... which is Memphis. They are still pretty well set in terms of draft assets despite looking extremely competitive. They blew up the team in 2017 and drafted JJJ and Ja in the next 2 drafts... along with Dillon Brooks. Added Bane one year later with a late pick.

I would put us on the 3rd season (2019-20, finished 34-39) in their timeline.. seeing we got an all star along with a great starting piece and potential future all star with some guys behind them showing promise. Our record also indicates we are playing at that level. We have more assets than they did at that point, but we also have slightly more needs to round out the roster and are older than they were back then. Also having Lauri and Kessler still on cheap contracts gives us incredible flexibility in terms of trading and signing FA to round out the roster.

Tanking now and thinking those top of the draft rookies would make us better than we were this year with these vets is not realistic. If we tank now, we will be bad next year as well. I dont know if there ever was a team who tanked without major injuries and rebounded to be good the following year. If we suck next year that might push the top 10 protected 2024 FRP we owe forward to 2025 which would be risky since from 2026 onwards our picks have swap rights with CLE/MIN. It would also push our window forward, and push us further away from that Memphis timeline.

Drafting well this year is very important... but staying competitive is also important for the reasons outlined above. So DA being opportunistic instead of going all in on either win-now / tank is the best approach. The notion we are gonna tank is not supported by any rumors or anything DA has said or done this year. I would much rather discuss other ways to build our way towards the top.
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You’re over thinking this. Rebuilds are snowflakes… all a bit different. I just find it hilarious that people think you have to spend years in misery. We are talking about a 32 game tank. You think Mike/KO gonna help us win 2-3 years from now? You really think Beasley/Vando are parts we can’t replace? Sell em off now… get something for your trouble and you can quickly turn around next year and have a more sustainable success with a much higher upside.

JC is the pivot point… if we moved him there’s a chance we really miss him. There’s a chance he bails on us this season though… it’s not up to us. So if you move him you do it with the knowledge he may have been leaving and you take nothing less than a good first rounder to do so. The future picks are the ammo to acquire future starter level talent… I see that as their most efficient use.

It’s just such a no brainer to me. I am fairly sure we end up being a pretty big seller in the next couple weeks. Just reading tea leaves.
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Handlogten's Heros said:
You’re over thinking this. Rebuilds are snowflakes… all a bit different. I just find it hilarious that people think you have to spend years in misery. We are talking about a 32 game tank. You think Mike/KO gonna help us win 2-3 years from now? You really think Beasley/Vando are parts we can’t replace? Sell em off now… get something for your trouble and you can quickly turn around next year and have a more sustainable success with a much higher upside.

JC is the pivot point… if we moved him there’s a chance we really miss him. There’s a chance he bails on us this season though… it’s not up to us. So if you move him you do it with the knowledge he may have been leaving and you take nothing less than a good first rounder to do so. The future picks are the ammo to acquire future starter level talent… I see that as their most efficient use.

It’s just such a no brainer to me. I am fairly sure we end up being a pretty big seller in the next couple weeks. Just reading tea leaves.
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Some people just want to be overly dramatic about a rebuild and would prefer mediocrity.
 
sip said:
Some people just want to be overly dramatic about a rebuild and would prefer mediocrity.
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It’s not even mediocrity that is the issue for me… it’s mediocrity propped up by players who are not part of our future plans. If we sell off Mike/KO/Vando/Malik and Ochai, Simone, Collin step up and fill the void and keep us in the playin… then fine. We will at least have netted some future assets, cleared cap room, and will have given experience to those players and valuable info to the FO and coaching staff. It’s a win all the way around… get it done.
 
HermanG said:
First of all OKC future looks bright I will give you that.. but they are not yet a contender so lets not use them as a "prime benchmark" prematurely. Secondly, the guy who is their lone all star and carrying them towards the play-in is drafted #13 and not even by OKC. Thirdly, Chet had one big concern coming out of college, which was.... well.. potential injuries. I don't know how many games Chet will play next season, but the red flag is certainly still there.

However there is a very good benchmark team in this league... which is Memphis. They are still pretty well set in terms of draft assets despite looking extremely competitive. They blew up the team in 2017 and drafted JJJ and Ja in the next 2 drafts... along with Dillon Brooks. Added Bane one year later with a late pick.

I would put us on the 3rd season (2019-20, finished 34-39) in their timeline.. seeing we got an all star along with a great starting piece and potential future all star with some guys behind them showing promise. Our record also indicates we are playing at that level. We have more assets than they did at that point, but we also have slightly more needs to round out the roster and are older than they were back then. Also having Lauri and Kessler still on cheap contracts gives us incredible flexibility in terms of trading and signing FA to round out the roster.

Tanking now and thinking those top of the draft rookies would make us better than we were this year with these vets is not realistic. If we tank now, we will be bad next year as well. I dont know if there ever was a team who tanked without major injuries and rebounded to be good the following year. If we suck next year that might push the top 10 protected 2024 FRP we owe forward to 2025 which would be risky since from 2026 onwards our picks have swap rights with CLE/MIN. It would also push our window forward, and push us further away from that Memphis timeline.

Drafting well this year is very important... but staying competitive is also important for the reasons outlined above. So DA being opportunistic instead of going all in on either win-now / tank is the best approach. The notion we are gonna tank is not supported by any rumors or anything DA has said or done this year. I would much rather discuss other ways to build our way towards the top.
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Great example. One thing that Memphis did REALLY well was utilizing their cap space to help facilitate deals with other teams when they were in asset collection mode. Now they can be buyers and not horribly deplete their cupboard of picks.

That’s one of the main reasons I’m still interested in making a Westbrook trade and buyout. Opens up a lot of options when you can take on unwanted contracts heading into the draft. Would very much like to see the Jazz have that kind of flexibility this year.
 
Coach Ellis said:
Great example. One thing that Memphis did REALLY well was utilizing their cap space to help facilitate deals with other teams when they were in asset collection mode. Now they can be buyers and not horribly deplete their cupboard of picks.

That’s one of the main reasons I’m still interested in making a Westbrook trade and buyout. Opens up a lot of options when you can take on unwanted contracts heading into the draft. Would very much like to see the Jazz have that kind of flexibility this year.
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Cap space can also help us create more flexibility in the future. We could more easily front load a new JC contract if we had some excess space… we could do it either way… but it’s easier if you have the room. We could also sign a couple slightly above MLE type free agents and do the same thing with front loading. With the cap rising by 40-50% those deals having declining values will create some potentially amazing values.

We can also take on bad money as you stated… it all makes too much sense and if DA has any opportunities to move guys for decent value I think it happens.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
It’s not even mediocrity that is the issue for me… it’s mediocrity propped up by players who are not part of our future plans. If we sell off Mike/KO/Vando/Malik and Ochai, Simone, Collin step up and fill the void and keep us in the playin… then fine. We will at least have netted some future assets, cleared cap room, and will have given experience to those players and valuable info to the FO and coaching staff. It’s a win all the way around… get it done.
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Amen. 100%.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
You’re over thinking this. Rebuilds are snowflakes… all a bit different. I just find it hilarious that people think you have to spend years in misery. We are talking about a 32 game tank. You think Mike/KO gonna help us win 2-3 years from now? You really think Beasley/Vando are parts we can’t replace? Sell em off now… get something for your trouble and you can quickly turn around next year and have a more sustainable success with a much higher upside.

JC is the pivot point… if we moved him there’s a chance we really miss him. There’s a chance he bails on us this season though… it’s not up to us. So if you move him you do it with the knowledge he may have been leaving and you take nothing less than a good first rounder to do so. The future picks are the ammo to acquire future starter level talent… I see that as their most efficient use.

It’s just such a no brainer to me. I am fairly sure we end up being a pretty big seller in the next couple weeks. Just reading tea leaves.
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BTW it was a very small mention… but Windy on his pod this AM said that he thinks the Jazz will end up right where we wanted by the end of the season… saying basically we will end up dropping out of the play in. Been so much noise on Mike and the LA teams. I think there is a better than 50% chance we pull the plug.
 
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