Its Time to Tank

[HermanG]

Only is the key word friend.

Yes. And I provided a post where you used that exact word.. right?

 

[Korisfani]

not acknowledging both the developmental benefits and draft assets that come from it.

There are no developmental benefits to tanking. Draft assets, yes, naturally.

To be clear where I stand… players and coaches should not tank. It’s a front offices job. If this front office didn’t make us bad enough to get a top 10 pick it’s not because they failed… it’s because they had so much success with their other acquisitions and hires.

So... the tank is over? Because there's nothing for the FO to do anymore, right?

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Yes. And I provided a post where you used that exact word.. right?

Did you? Also it’s the assumption that when I say “the draft is the primary or essentially the only way” we get star talent is that means I think that only includes getting a top 4 pick. That is not my position… you can get a star many places in the draft but overwhelmingly the odds of getting a star increase in the top 5. We will have to get multiple lucky breaks to build a contender. Boosting those odds in one area does not mean that is the “only” area.

 

[underdog]

It’s not hard to get to 8ish… and while it’s long odds… it’s like 10x better odds.

Play in experience is cute… has not helped the Hornets or Spurs the last two years. Winning 3-4 extra games costs us 10x odds 4-6 spots in the lotto… I will sacrifice the play in experience happily to get those odds. The assumption that we won’t get lucky or that 4-6 spots in the lotto is not meaningful is part of this argument that gets frustrating. Is it meaningful to have a 6% shot at 1B vs. a .5% chance at 1B? What kind of premium would you pay to have the 6% shot?

How many of the remaining games do you think we need to lose to get to the 8th lottery spot? It’s tough because for us to gain lottery ground, the other lottery teams need to win every time we lose. And sure 6% chance is better than 0.5% change, but idk it’s so low. When I mentioned play-in experience, I was thinking Kessler, Agbaji, and Sexton, and also Lauri although he already has that experience from last season. I obviously want as good a lottery position as possible, but at this point looking at our odds I’m ok to let this thing just shake out. I do hope though that Danny tries to move up in the draft if there’s a talented, playmaking PG in sight he might be able to snatch.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

There are no developmental benefits to tanking. Draft assets, yes, naturally.

Playing time benefits young players developing… tanking provides that playing time… it’s why we offloaded three starters so Ochai THT and Sexton would get more time. It will also mean more losing.

So... the tank is over? Because there's nothing for the FO to do anymore, right?

The price for tanking is essentially already paid… yes. The season isn’t over… not sure what this question is even about. There have been very rare instances where coaches have executed tank moves likely at the prompt of a front office… it’s usually a few games or so at the end of the year.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

How many of the remaining games do you think we need to lose to get to the 8th lottery spot? It’s tough because for us to gain lottery ground, the other lottery teams need to win every time we lose. And sure 6% chance is better than 0.5% change, but idk it’s so low. When I mentioned play-in experience, I was thinking Kessler, Agbaji, and Sexton, and also Lauri although he already has that experience from last season. I obviously want as good a lottery position as possible, but at this point looking at our odds I’m ok to let this thing just shake out. I do hope though that Danny tries to move up in the draft if there’s a talented, playmaking PG in sight he might be able to snatch.

I don’t have an exact number. There are several teams below us with no motivation to tank… there are several teams below us that added talent at the deadline or in buyout. There are a few notable stars below our team.

If they can’t get there… then they can’t get there. Just because it may not work out perfectly doesn’t mean you don’t do it. Kessler or Lauri could also sprain an ankle and we’d end up dropping 5 or 6 in a row.

We are like 5-0 in overtime this year right? If we’d gone 2-3 we’d already be there…

 

[HermanG]

Many have mentioned how high picks bust all the time or how no tanking teams ever win titles etc… then they work to disqualify several teams that absolutely tanked and won titles. There are zero guarantees… you play the best odds you can get… and the odds favor drafting very high. Even if the mid lotto odds are pretty long.

If you go back and see where those discussions started you will find out no antitanker ever came out of the blue to argue those points. Tankers started every single one of those conversations by saying we need to start losing. They were counter-arguments.

Had we been losing from the get go, it might have gone the other way. But thats speculation.

 

[HermanG]

Did you? Also it’s the assumption that when I say “the draft is the primary or essentially the only way” we get star talent is that means I think that only includes getting a top 4 pick. That is not my position… you can get a star many places in the draft but overwhelmingly the odds of getting a star increase in the top 5. We will have to get multiple lucky breaks to build a contender. Boosting those odds in one area does not mean that is the “only” area.

I will quote it again here. You didnt say essentially, nor primary.

to be a contender many teams have multi all-nba talents. That is the hardest thing to find... that is something we will only get in the draft

And I'm not arguing about win/lose at all. Ive said it since we made that trade with Lakers that finding our upside as a team right now has only very little value since we are now missing too many pieces to even simulate it properly.

Im not pro tank, but I'm pro developing the best/most promising guys we have.. win or lose, maximize Lauri, Kessler, Ochai and Sexton development (and trade value).

 

[Bawse Dawg]

If the Jazz get top 10 odds, the lotto balls will be kind. I feel it.

 

[underdog]

I don’t have an exact number. There are several teams below us with no motivation to tank… there are several teams below us that added talent at the deadline or in buyout. There are a few notable stars below our team.

If they can’t get there… then they can’t get there. Just because it may not work out perfectly doesn’t mean you don’t do it. Kessler or Lauri could also sprain an ankle and we’d end up dropping 5 or 6 in a row.

We are like 5-0 in overtime this year right? If we’d gone 2-3 we’d already be there…

Yes, those overtime wins, always fighting till the end. And seeing Hardy pacing and arguing with the refs on the sidelines, it looks like he hates losing a basketball game more than anything. Tanking ain’t easy for the Jazz.

 

[fishonjazz]

The way I see it is most tankers argue that building through draft is the only way

Ya, you see that wrong.
I think there are more than one way to get good. I think you can trade for good players, get good players in free agency, and draft them.

 

[HermanG]

Ya, you see that wrong.
I think there are more than one way to get good. I think you can trade for good players, get good players in free agency, and draft them.

I know you do. You are one of the reasons why I said "most".

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

I will quote it again here. You didnt say essentially, nor primary.

And I'm not arguing about win/lose at all. Ive said it since we made that trade with Lakers that finding our upside as a team right now has only very little value since we are now missing too many pieces to even simulate it properly.

Im not pro tank, but I'm pro developing the best/most promising guys we have.. win or lose, maximize Lauri, Kessler, Ochai and Sexton development (and trade value).

All nba talent will come from the draft… should I have said 90% of the time sure… but that also includes ALL our picks in the draft… not just the high picks we tank for. Have we ever had an all-nba player that came from another source?

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

All nba talent will come from the draft… should I have said 90% of the time sure… but that also includes ALL our picks in the draft… not just the high picks we tank for. Have we ever had an all-nba player that came from another source?

Boozer made an all nba team once. Not sure there is another.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

All nba talent will come from the draft… should I have said 90% of the time sure… but that also includes ALL our picks in the draft… not just the high picks we tank for. Have we ever had an all-nba player that came from another source?

Lauri could be all NBA this year.

 

[HermanG]

All nba talent will come from the draft… should I have said 90% of the time sure… but that also includes ALL our picks in the draft… not just the high picks we tank for. Have we ever had an all-nba player that came from another source?

Lauri.

Also have we ever had 15 FRP to shop with?

 

[Eddie Zero]

If the Jazz get top 10 odds, the lotto balls will be kind. I feel it.

The Finnisher got 43 points shooting terribly from 3. You really think we are getting top 10 odds without him getting less usage I can't help you.
He plays and shoots his normal rate and the Jazz win that game by 20 not by 1.
imo the Jazz best chance at a better pick still lies with the Wolves crumbling down the stretch, and of course if the Jazz brass decide to reduce the Finnishers usage by half.

 

[Korisfani]

Playing time benefits young players developing… tanking provides that playing time… it’s why we offloaded three starters so Ochai THT and Sexton would get more time. It will also mean more losing.

Tanking isn't mandatory to give young players minutes. And most of the tankers seem quite happy to have Sexton NOT play any minutes for as long as possible. Tanking and playing with what the current Jazz bench mostly is also doesn't develop young players. Every coach wants to put young players in situations where they're likely to succeed, get positive experiences and build their confidence. Losing most nights and playing with borderline NBA players is a situation for any young player to fail, not succeed and lose their confidence. Not all minutes are equal.

The price for tanking is essentially already paid… yes. The season isn’t over… not sure what this question is even about. There have been very rare instances where coaches have executed tank moves likely at the prompt of a front office… it’s usually a few games or so at the end of the year.

Well, other tankers don't seem to think so. In every game thread they're hoping for "injuries" (or even injuries). Some want Lauri benched if doesn't agree to sit out the rest of the season.

If, as you say, you're all about giving young players minutes and letting the chips fall where they may, then why does it seem you want to be the main brigadier general of the tankers? The tankers out there only care about the lotto balls and are happy for Sexton play 0 minutes.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Lauri could be all NBA this year.

He has a chance.

 

[hzg511]

Lauri could be all NBA this year.

Who is just having his real breakout season. Shutting him down or harming his development is Bulls' level stuff. Tank with the bench guys or something if needed.