Tremendous Upside
Well-Known Member
IMO there's one really big bullet left to be dodged this season, and that's trading for John Collins.
If we bring him in, he's obviously a big minute starter. And he will immediately end the All Star Lauri Era. Hear me out.
Collins would likely take over the high pick setter / roll man role from Kessler and push Walker back to the bench. The only way these two can co-exist in the same starting lineup is if Collins stands in the corner in a spacing-heavy, small-usage modern PF role, as he's certainly no SF. And I see him throwing a tantrum if it comes to that, as it's precisely the role he's trying to get away from in Atlanta. He wants touches, he wants to be a lob finisher. That's what brought him success early in his career.
Also, that three big lineup would feature Lauri in a straight up SF role, and that's a bad idea - a big part of his success this season has been punishing smaller defenders near the basket. We're already seeing less of that now that Kessler is clogging the paint to an extent, and it would only get more pronounced with Collins (and his defender) hanging near the dunker's spot too. You can talk about Markkanen as a "perimeter big" as much as you want, but the fact is that the only real advantage he has there is shooting over smaller guys. In other words, the same limiting role both Chicago (and to a lesser extent Cleveland) used him in. We don't want that now that we've seen what he can do when he roams around. As a pure SF, playing with two other bigs, he wouldn't be able to drive past many of his defenders and there wouldn't be space for that either as long as Kessler remains a non-shooter who can't draw his defender away from the hoop.
By necessity, Lauri would become even more of an opportunistic scorer than he is now, surviving on other peoples' scraps.
I'm not saying no to a three big lineup as a basic idea (the current iteration is not the real thing, as Olynyk plays much smaller than he is), but the guy we need to complement Lauri and Kessler in that scenario needs to be a better outside shooter than Collins and someone who doesn't need the ball but is comfortable spacing the floor in the corner. Collins is a square peg in a round hole. Lauri has a natural tendency to start floating on the weak side and disappearing if he senses the court is badly spaced, and at this point, we want to avoid a situation like that at all costs because it would be a gigantic waste. He should never again be used in such a narrow way.
So, to sum up... would we be comfortable benching Kessler in favor of Collins? Will Kessler develop a jump shot? Is it even essential for this team that Lauri remains a 20+ point scorer? These are some of the questions that need to be answered. Just trading for Collins (and his stupid contract) and hoping for the best doesn't make sense.
If we bring him in, he's obviously a big minute starter. And he will immediately end the All Star Lauri Era. Hear me out.
Collins would likely take over the high pick setter / roll man role from Kessler and push Walker back to the bench. The only way these two can co-exist in the same starting lineup is if Collins stands in the corner in a spacing-heavy, small-usage modern PF role, as he's certainly no SF. And I see him throwing a tantrum if it comes to that, as it's precisely the role he's trying to get away from in Atlanta. He wants touches, he wants to be a lob finisher. That's what brought him success early in his career.
Also, that three big lineup would feature Lauri in a straight up SF role, and that's a bad idea - a big part of his success this season has been punishing smaller defenders near the basket. We're already seeing less of that now that Kessler is clogging the paint to an extent, and it would only get more pronounced with Collins (and his defender) hanging near the dunker's spot too. You can talk about Markkanen as a "perimeter big" as much as you want, but the fact is that the only real advantage he has there is shooting over smaller guys. In other words, the same limiting role both Chicago (and to a lesser extent Cleveland) used him in. We don't want that now that we've seen what he can do when he roams around. As a pure SF, playing with two other bigs, he wouldn't be able to drive past many of his defenders and there wouldn't be space for that either as long as Kessler remains a non-shooter who can't draw his defender away from the hoop.
By necessity, Lauri would become even more of an opportunistic scorer than he is now, surviving on other peoples' scraps.
I'm not saying no to a three big lineup as a basic idea (the current iteration is not the real thing, as Olynyk plays much smaller than he is), but the guy we need to complement Lauri and Kessler in that scenario needs to be a better outside shooter than Collins and someone who doesn't need the ball but is comfortable spacing the floor in the corner. Collins is a square peg in a round hole. Lauri has a natural tendency to start floating on the weak side and disappearing if he senses the court is badly spaced, and at this point, we want to avoid a situation like that at all costs because it would be a gigantic waste. He should never again be used in such a narrow way.
So, to sum up... would we be comfortable benching Kessler in favor of Collins? Will Kessler develop a jump shot? Is it even essential for this team that Lauri remains a 20+ point scorer? These are some of the questions that need to be answered. Just trading for Collins (and his stupid contract) and hoping for the best doesn't make sense.
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