fishonjazz
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I already posted about this but I will do so again.Hypothetical here, but if the messaging was different and if it seemed like there was a decent chance to people, including those that set the betting lines, that Lauri was going to be traded, do you think the line would have been set differently?
If the jazz were aggressively shopping Lauri and Lauri was demanding a trade and Lauri couldn't get way more money by staying then yes, I think that would be reflected.
My stance has not been that betters didn't account for probable trades. I think they do. I know I would.
My stance has been that betters are betting on the jazz roster as is (with Lauri) because that is almost certain to be the roster for the upcoming season. Therefore the line of 28.5 doesn't have an unlikely trade of Lauri baked in. And I believe that after the jazz extend him we will see almost no movement in the 28.5 number.
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