I totally believe it and believe it will happen. By '14??? Highly doubtful... but by '16 wouldn't surprise me at all.
That sounds about right. And realistically, that would be a real target date goal probably for the Athletic Department. 5 years after Independence. I think the part about what FISH said in regards to Board of Trustees guys being more on board now is at least correct. Whatever happened that first time around, BYU was in serious discussions, and might've overplayed their hand because there was so much going on at that point, and they didn't know what their TV network was ultimately going to become or how Independence scheduling would shape up. They are in a better spot to give themselves a fair self-assessment now which should lead to more fruitful negotiations.
I think what happened was this:
Utah left and BYU over-reacted. I'm not saying Independence is bad, I think it is a lot better for BYU than the MWC. BUT, I do think Holmoe went to the BOT and told them Independence was great, TV deals, more home games, ESPN = more money. They said ok, and BYU went Independent. Then a year later, the Big 12 did their whole song and dance, talked to BYU and Holmoe went to the BOT and the BOT said, "hold on. Just a year ago you told us Independence was the way to be. We now control tv, we control the schedule, we have games for BYUtv and we have more revenue than we had before. We like where we are. We don't want to give up tv, we don't want to give up control over scheduling, and games on BYUtv. No go on the Big 12."
Then a year or two has happened since then, and boosters, etc have complained enough about wanting to go into the BCS that their stance has softened.
I honestly believe that if BYU never goes independent, they are in the Big 12 right now.
Here is the real question:
What is BYU willing to do to be competitive in the Big 12? I remember hearing Van Pelt talking about a PAC-12 coach that told him whenever a 5 star kid they are recruiting starts to be recruited by an SEC team they back off because they know they can't "afford" that kid. Is BYU willing to take chances on kids? Are they willing to give kids like Star a second chance? Look the other way at a party with a kid like Teo? If not, the Big 12 could be very, very depressing for them. Believe me, I know. And Utah is willing to take second chances on kids. Some have worked out (Star), some haven't (Josh Gordon, Cleveland Brown WR). BYU probably gets an unfair shake in the press when a kid goes south, and will they be ok with that if that means they can get some kids in that could really be amazing for them? That is the real question here.
Also, the Wisconsin/ND games will be huge for BYU as far as gauging how they would perform in a BCS conference. Right now, they are 2-2 against BCS teams. They are 0-2 vs Utah and Virginia, mediocre teams. They are 2-0 against Texas (a good team, but they lost their QB early in the BYU game) and GT (a terrible BCS team). If they finish out 2-4, then yikes. You thought it's been ugly for Utah...would BYU fans be okay with a couple of seasons with no bowl games?
In some ways, Independence/MWC is nice. You can get a bowl game every year. You can really plan for 2-4 teams every year and know you will probably win the other 8-10 by just showing up. You can claim then Big 12/PAC 12 stinks and you would dominate it, but not have to deal with the week in week out grind, etc. It is tough going into a new conference, especially one where your ones are good, but your 2's and 3's are terrible compared to the other teams.
I wonder how long Bronco/Holmoe would last if BYU missed a bowl two years in a row. Utah has only missed one bowl and Whitt is having rumblings about his job. That's crazy. That isn't realistic.
Another thing, is BYU willing to pay their head coach and assistants enough to keep them around. Whitt is being paid middle of the road PAC-12 money, and he gets double what Bronco gets. I bet Sitake and Dennis Erickson make more than all of BYU's assistants combined.
I would love to have BYU in a BCS conference, because it doubles the amount of fun games I get to watch every weekend, but it is a hard road, and I wonder if BYU and BYU fan are ready for the commitment it takes to be successful.
Very good post.
Well, there is my two right posts then. Dang.
I think what happened was this:
Utah left and BYU over-reacted. I'm not saying Independence is bad, I think it is a lot better for BYU than the MWC. BUT, I do think Holmoe went to the BOT and told them Independence was great, TV deals, more home games, ESPN = more money. They said ok, and BYU went Independent. Then a year later, the Big 12 did their whole song and dance, talked to BYU and Holmoe went to the BOT and the BOT said, "hold on. Just a year ago you told us Independence was the way to be. We now control tv, we control the schedule, we have games for BYUtv and we have more revenue than we had before. We like where we are. We don't want to give up tv, we don't want to give up control over scheduling, and games on BYUtv. No go on the Big 12."
Then a year or two has happened since then, and boosters, etc have complained enough about wanting to go into the BCS that their stance has softened.
I honestly believe that if BYU never goes independent, they are in the Big 12 right now.
Here is the real question:
What is BYU willing to do to be competitive in the Big 12? I remember hearing Van Pelt talking about a PAC-12 coach that told him whenever a 5 star kid they are recruiting starts to be recruited by an SEC team they back off because they know they can't "afford" that kid. Is BYU willing to take chances on kids? Are they willing to give kids like Star a second chance? Look the other way at a party with a kid like Teo? If not, the Big 12 could be very, very depressing for them. Believe me, I know. And Utah is willing to take second chances on kids. Some have worked out (Star), some haven't (Josh Gordon, Cleveland Brown WR). BYU probably gets an unfair shake in the press when a kid goes south, and will they be ok with that if that means they can get some kids in that could really be amazing for them? That is the real question here.
Another thing, is BYU willing to pay their head coach and assistants enough to keep them around. Whitt is being paid middle of the road PAC-12 money, and he gets double what Bronco gets.
Take chances? Sure. Look at Van Noy, for example. Look the other way? No. I think the program suffered too much embarrassment from that type of thing (what was that 8-10 years ago?) and the board of trustees issued an edict saying "this is not good for the church"
I personally think independence was the right choice with Utah and TCU leaving the MWC. I think BYU has done well with their scheduling the last couple years. I'm under no illusion the Big 12 would be easy. I think BYU has the potential to be a Kansas State type program there: middle of the pack most years with the ability to leap to the top when "the stars align". This is also how I see Utah in the PAC 12. Ultimately, I hope and think BYU gets in the Big 12.
This is such a great post. When I look at what I hope Utah can become in the PAC, I don't have any illusions of becoming USC or Oregon. I think Utah's dream scenario is to become like Washington. A solid PAC 12 team that gets into the Rose Bowl once or twice per decade. I would be over the moon if that happened.
It's been very interesting to see how these bigger conferences can take it's toll. At the time of the MWC split, I felt like TCU had a better football program than Utah, BYU, and Boise State. Now, they are just another team in the Big 12. I honestly hope BYU gets to move to a bigger conference, but get ready for a HUGE slice of humble pie Cougar fans. Us Ute and TCU fans are still choking on it.
There is a less than 0% chance byu would ever be invited go the Pac 12.
I really can't believe people are even discussing it.
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There is a less than 0% chance byu would ever be invited go the Pac 12.
I really can't believe people are even discussing it.
£¥£
There is a less than 0% chance byu would ever be invited go the Pac 12.
I really can't believe people are even discussing it.
£¥£
Also, the Wisconsin/ND games will be huge for BYU as far as gauging how they would perform in a BCS conference. Right now, they are 2-2 against BCS teams. They are 0-2 vs Utah and Virginia, mediocre teams. They are 2-0 against Texas (a good team, but they lost their QB early in the BYU game) and GT (a terrible BCS team). If they finish out 2-4, then yikes. You thought it's been ugly for Utah...would BYU fans be okay with a couple of seasons with no bowl games?