Coin....

[Ferguson_Mellochill]

Lakers fans doing the ESPN sim are getting a high predominance of the 6th and 7th pick---resulting in the selection of Aaron Gordon.

ESPN thinks the Lakers' draft board goes: Wiggins, Parker, Exum, if the Lakers get in the top 3.

 

[GVC]

I think the idea here is that if Utah does get into the top 3, the chance of Boston also getting in the top 3 goes down because Utah has claimed one of the 3 positions and only 2 remain....and it matters which slot 1 - 3 that Utah gets. I think the 7.9% probability is too high, no?

Nope. Consider: The two of them have 207 balls combined, so there's a 20.7% chance one of them lands the 1st pick. That also leaves the remaining team a better than 10% chance of landing the second pick (104 or 103 balls out of the remaining 897 or 896 balls), meaning the probability that they pick #1 and #2 is better than 2% (2.390%). The probability of them picking #1 and #3 (2.633%) or #2 and #3 (2.891%) should be even higher.

Here are the relevant probabilities:

Boston Top-3 Total: 33.414%
Utah Top-3 Total: 33.693%

Boston AND Utah Top-3 Total: 7.914%

Boston and notUtah Top-3 Total: 25.499%
Utah and notBoston Top-3 Total: 25.779%

Utah and/or Boston Top-3 Total: 59.192%

Neither Utah nor Boston in Top-3 Total: 40.808%

 

[green]

yay

 

[Ferguson_Mellochill]

Nope. Consider: The two of them have 207 balls combined, so there's a 20.7% chance one of them lands the 1st pick. That also leaves the remaining team a better than 10% chance of landing the second pick (104 or 103 balls out of the remaining 897 or 896 balls), meaning the probability that they pick #1 and #2 is better than 2% (2.390%). The probability of them picking #1 and #3 (2.633%) or #2 and #3 (2.891%) should be even higher.

Here are the relevant probabilities:

Boston Top-3 Total: 33.414%
Utah Top-3 Total: 33.693%

Boston AND Utah Top-3 Total: 7.914%

Boston and notUtah Top-3 Total: 25.499%
Utah and notBoston Top-3 Total: 25.779%

Utah and/or Boston Top-3 Total: 59.192%

Neither Utah nor Boston in Top-3 Total: 40.808%

Okay, sounds good to me.

 

[stormkoopacv03]

It's all nice and all but we shouldn't celebrate too much. We might win it this round and boston the next. Karma's a bitch sometimes!

 

[Goodluckchuck]

the probability that both boston and lakers land in top 2.

is 100%!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


FACT

Can you imagine the negativity that would cause the NBA? They would be chastised for decades if that were to happen. It's bad enough that in the past 30 years there has only been 8 different teams that have won the Championship. Giving two of the biggest franchises the top two picks would be suicide IMHO. If I am the NBA, I do whatever it takes not to allow that to happen. But I agree with you. I just hope they are smarter then that.

 

[fishonjazz]

Here is how the NBA draft lottery works.

1. All teams missing the playoffs are in the Lottery
2. Teams with worse records get more chances at winning a top three pick (more ping pong ball combos)
3. The 1st overall pick is awarded by a drawing of ping pong balls
4. The 2nd overall pick is awarded by a drawing of ping pong balls
5. The 3rd overall pick is awarded by a drawing of ping pong balls
6. Remaining lottery teams, sorted by record, fill out picks 4-14
7. Playoff teams, sorted by record, are assigned picks 15-30 - playoff seeds and outcomes have no impact
8. Coin flip(or drawing) decides who picks first between teams with same record
9. Tied lottery teams split their ping pong balls evenly, and any odd remainder and the better draft order position are given to the coin flip winner

There's only about a 10% chance that the worst 3 teams all end up picking in the top 3 (in any order). There's roughly a 34% chance the Jazz end up in the top 3. That leaves a 56% chance that at least one non-Jazz team outside the top 3 ends up picking in the top 3 and the Jazz don't pick in the top 3, which is about 5.5x more likely than the top 3 picking in the top 3, which is what's required for the Jazz to end up picking 4th. That's why 5th is the most likely outcome.

6th is more likely than 4th because it's more likely 2 non-bottom-3 teams end up picking in the top 3 than all 3 bottom-3 teams picking in the top 3 (again, 10% chance).

These two posts combined finally made me understand wtf is going on.

Thanks to you both

 

[cowhide]

That is hilarious.

 

[addictionary]

Nice video to tell us to keep the hopes up all the time.

*Stockton & Malone in*


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8jCIj2gmILw

 

[Zulu]

@chadfordinsider: NBA just did tiebreakers for draft. Utah (25-57) won a tiebreaker with Boston.

 

[Jazz4ever]

That is hilarious.

But this is the ultimate

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LU_qVnISDXQ

 

[infection]

Can you imagine the negativity that would cause the NBA? They would be chastised for decades if that were to happen. It's bad enough that in the past 30 years there has only been 8 different teams that have won the Championship. Giving two of the biggest franchises the top two picks would be suicide IMHO. If I am the NBA, I do whatever it takes not to allow that to happen. But I agree with you. I just hope they are smarter then that.

Define chastised. A few peoole complaining on message boards while everyone else tells them they're just stupid? Maybe. The Tim Donaghy thing blew over in about a week. I doubt that would have any lasting impact, with the exception of the decade of added revenue impact it would have for the league.