The U.S. Our mortality rate has been a tick above 1% which is an outlier, but it will spike when the wave hits and we don't have the ability to manage the crisis.If we don't practice proactive and widespread social distancing the death toll will be in the millions.
If we do what we've been doing (or at least trying to do with social distancing) then that number comes way down (from millions) and it would still be terrible. Our rate of infection is starting to dramatically outpace Italy's and we have a president that has been consistently trying to downplay the threat, in addition to refusing to do the most powerful thing he could do individually to deal with this (by enacting the Defense Production Act). We don't have enough masks, let alone beds, buildings, and ventilators. We don't have antivirals and we won't have a vaccine until this is probably largely already over. There are two strains of COVID-19 and reports that people have gotten infected twice.
I don't purport to know every answer, or most of them. I do know we have to take this extremely seriously and - more than that - should've been taking this serious MONTHS ago. There's a reason that the rhetoric on the right has gone from "this is nothing" to "people will be honored to die because of money" in the span of a week.