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If we don't practice proactive and widespread social distancing the death toll will be in the millions.
The U.S. Our mortality rate has been a tick above 1% which is an outlier, but it will spike when the wave hits and we don't have the ability to manage the crisis.

If we do what we've been doing (or at least trying to do with social distancing) then that number comes way down (from millions) and it would still be terrible. Our rate of infection is starting to dramatically outpace Italy's and we have a president that has been consistently trying to downplay the threat, in addition to refusing to do the most powerful thing he could do individually to deal with this (by enacting the Defense Production Act). We don't have enough masks, let alone beds, buildings, and ventilators. We don't have antivirals and we won't have a vaccine until this is probably largely already over. There are two strains of COVID-19 and reports that people have gotten infected twice.

I don't purport to know every answer, or most of them. I do know we have to take this extremely seriously and - more than that - should've been taking this serious MONTHS ago. There's a reason that the rhetoric on the right has gone from "this is nothing" to "people will be honored to die because of money" in the span of a week.
 
Thought this was interesting

While it is true that deaths resulting from those causes outnumber deaths from the virus to date, projections from the C.D.C. estimated that deaths from Covid-19 in the United States could range from 200,000 to 1.7 million. Estimates from other scientists place the potential number of deaths in a range from several hundred thousand to several million, substantially more than the annual number of deaths from car accidents and flu combined.
 
No telling if sacrificing the lives of the elderly would save the economy though. It's a blood sacrifice to a god who may not even exist. What a waste of life and humanity that would be.

Agreed. And theres no telling if sacrificing the economy will save the lives of the elderly. Or how long those lives would be saved for.
In the end it could be that killing the economy saves the elderly from death by covid and that instead they die from symptoms of a dead economy.


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Agreed. And theres no telling if sacrificing the economy will save the lives of the elderly. Or how long those lives would be saved for.
In the end it could be that killing the economy saves the elderly from death by covid and that instead they die from symptoms of a dead economy.


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The elderly may be damned if you do and damned if you don't. If they do make it out of this pandemic alive, I'd rather it be due to us trying to save them vs us trying to save the economy (which isnt a guarantee in either scenario).

Besides "The Greatest Generation" didn't rise out of a good economy anyway.
 
The U.S. Our mortality rate has been a tick above 1% which is an outlier, but it will spike when the wave hits and we don't have the ability to manage the crisis.

If we do what we've been doing (or at least trying to do with social distancing) then that number comes way down (from millions) and it would still be terrible. Our rate of infection is starting to dramatically outpace Italy's and we have a president that has been consistently trying to downplay the threat, in addition to refusing to do the most powerful thing he could do individually to deal with this (by enacting the Defense Production Act). We don't have enough masks, let alone beds, buildings, and ventilators. We don't have antivirals and we won't have a vaccine until this is probably largely already over. There are two strains of COVID-19 and reports that people have gotten infected twice.

I don't purport to know every answer, or most of them. I do know we have to take this extremely seriously and - more than that - should've been taking this serious MONTHS ago. There's a reason that the rhetoric on the right has gone from "this is nothing" to "people will be honored to die because of money" in the span of a week.
Yep, people don't seem to get this. The 1% death rate is IF and WHILE you are able to accommodate all who need hospitalization and ventilators. Right now the health care system in a lot of states/countries is able to handle it. This won't be the case in a month or two.

15-20% of cases will require hospitalization. If you cannot make room in your hospitals for that inflow there will be additional deaths.
5% of cases will require ventilators. If you cannot give those people ventilators pretty much ALL of them will die. This INCLUDES YOUNG PEOPLE!!!!! Over 50% of the people in ICUs in France are under 50 years old! OVER 50%!!!

Most countries in the world have between 10 and 35 ventilators per capita. That's 0.035% for the US. With 5% needing the ventilators. If the peak happens at once most of those 5% will die! This is why the death rate in Italy is this high. It's because they are having to choose who gets a ventilator and lives and who doesn't and dies. It's because they are letting people die who wouldn't die if they had the required help.

This is what will happen if you don't flatten the curve and allow your healthcare system to spread the cases over longer period of time so more people will get the help they need.

And this doesn't even touch on ALL OTHER people with other sicknesses that might die because they won't be able to get the help they need because of overburdened healthcare system.
 
Does anyone have a direct quote from the token "family values" member of the Trump Administration and current head of the Covid-19 task force, Mike Pence, about ending the quarantine early to "save" the economy?

This administration has done the ****ing impossible - I'm now longing for the days of George W. Bush.
 
Ha, Trump is deluded like 40% of USA . It just started in USA. By Easter you guys will have more cases and more deaths than any other country in the world.

They will certainly win the developed world sweep stakes. India or Brazil or somewhere in Africa might take the overall crown tho.
 
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This ain't going to magically get better in 2.5 weeks. You'll see some states improve while others will get worse.

Governors will ultimately decide what's best for them anyway. Telling people to do whatever they want for Easter means we'll see a huge increase at the end of April and prolong this madness.
 
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