Coronavirus

[Deleted member 365]

We seem to just be content with things

 

[infection]

The death curve continues to decline. The line is the 7-day average for each day.


Obviously, as I’ve said many times, large quantities of death is nothing to celebrate. But when it was being talked about with varying levels of certainty that right now we’d be having 3-5k deaths per day right now as the “new normal,” nothing like that has even remotely come to fruition. We’ve hit 1k in a day only once in the past 10 days. If this outcome was presented for acceptance when this whole thing started, the vast majority of people would have taken this with a huge sigh of relief. But, as this has now arrived, we no longer hear about death counts. We’re now referencing other statistics, and never talk about the death curve. When asked, people would say that there’s no number acceptable, and that’s true, but nobody is running around currently saying “OMG look!” but instead reaching for other metrics that forecast our dire situation. What one has to read between the lines is that people ultimately view this as good, else why are we turning to alternative metrics with no more mention of these?

Then you have the new cases curve.


Obviously, this one has more or less plateaued and is not decreasing as much, so this gets a bit more emphasis. However, you’ll notice that there haven’t been any spikes. The spikes predicted with states opening up 6 weeks ago don’t appear anywhere in this. Yet despite a plateau in cases, deaths rates continue to drop. The total testing of the US is still a bit nebulous. How much has testing increased? We used to qualify small numbers of cases by the fear that we’re under testing.

Preliminary thoughts out of Minnesota is that there won’t be a spike in cases from protests:

https://www.twincities.com/2020/06/...floyd-early-test-results-show-few-protesters/

If the above is jarring to one’s sure testimony of COVID, don’t worry because over two weeks ago I already laid out some apologetics to keep things rolling:

1a. Give it more time.
1b. The people protesting are among the most disenfranchised in society, have the least amount of access to healthcare, and are disproportionately among those without ability to be tested.
2. Videos are everywhere. For such big protests, most people were very responsible and most all worse masks and practiced social distancing.
3. The infrastructure of these communities was hit the hardest, and the testing results were getting now are more reflective of the communities that didn’t get hit with protests and riots, so we’re undercounting because these communities didn’t just “magically” not have COVID.
4. The protestors were only a small fraction of the population, and they congregated in cities but then dispersed back to their home communities, so it’s impossible to measure the spread among those individuals because the actual rates will get distributed across different communities and be difficult to track.

But, as I stated when this all began, that we need to be as accurate as possible in our appraisals and we need to be self-reflective enough to reassess and recalibrate. My concern was that we’d lock in to a position and get tunnel vision. And we’re approaching this as “sides,” or as if we were assigned a position in debate class and we’re mindlessly arguing it because that’s what we do.

But with everyone out at protests, we’re not going to see the kind of spikes that were assured if things like that happened. The kind of spikes that justify not opening the economy. But that’s okay. We’ll have the rest of the summer for that to unfold, while we find other angles to debate about, and, as I’ve promised, we will arrive in late August through September and October where we will revisit the summer virus suppression model. This time, however, the swing will be away from those “ignorant” using it as an excuse for “doing nothing,” to a repackaging and rebranding by those lusting for vindication. When it’s rebranded, it will be done so in a ‘more sophisticated’ and ‘more nuanced’ fashion, as if the original belief was that the summer heat and sunlight was what everyone believed would kill the virus [it wasn’t], but now the belief will be ‘more clear’ that the summer heat facilitated outdoor gathering and congregating in ways consistent with social distancing, and boy hell are we ****ed this fall because the second wave is coming with the colder weather. The summer suppression theory is currently still somewhat alive in stages of mockery from those who believe in #Science! when directed against those deniers. But the summer suppression theory will ultimately hold the vindication for those currently mocking it. It will provide a palatable explanation of why none of the curves are anywhere close to predicted, and it will give fertile ground for the expectation of a second wave. As Christendom expected a political deliverance with the first advent of the Messiah, they struggled with the humble mortality this came through. But the promise of a second coming reinvigorated those wishing for vindication. The arrival of the undeniable, and to tread under the feet those whose lack of faith was so hard to endure. This will be the last stand, and the second coming for those thirsting for fulfillment of foretold prophecies.

 

[infection]

We seem to just be content with things

With the exception of Germany, we’ve had less per capita deaths than all those countries. But compare the death curves:






So Spain’s is a little hard to visualize because the scale is thrown off by the fact that they somehow raised 2k people from the dead at the end of last month.

 

[Eminence]

So Spain’s is a little hard to visualize because the scale is thrown off by the fact that they somehow raised 2k people from the dead at the end of last month.

Now that's something we need to look into.

 

[Scat]

I really wish they would do widespread anitbody testing. I think we would all be astonished at how many people have already contracted and overcome.

 

[Avery]

Sounds like most models predict a decline through June/July and then a ramp starting in September. From a matter of foresight and optics, an increase come election time makes me really wonder why Trump and his team didn't want to stamp this out even further.

Guess they thought it was either the economy or sickness so running the risk with the sickness was a better play as they could play it off on China.

 

[PJF]

 

[Red]

So maybe this will help the sickest patients survive...

 

[infection]

I had previously mentioned that we had hit 1k deaths in a day once in the past 10 (now 11) days. Historically, Tuesday is the largest day in terms of deaths (true for 7/8 weeks), as the tallies on Tuesday come from Monday’s numbers, which clears out the weekend backlogs. The numbers have also historically decreased each successive day of the week (true for 7/8 past weeks). The total number of deaths each Tuesday has been less than the previous Tuesday for, again, 7/8 weeks. With today’s total of 849, what that would suggest, based on history, is that we won’t be seeing us crossing the thousand death threshold, or perhaps even approaching it, for the foreseeable future. Of course, one could say “no way,” with belief that cases will spike, but the daily death rate has continued to fall despite very little reduction in the prevalence of new cases.

 

[PJF]

 

[BabyPeterzz]

You know Twitter is censoring Daddy’s hate speech. If you were a real patriot like the rest of your paranoid bunker buddies you’d boycott them too. and Facebook. And google. And the generals, the Supreme Court, fellow Republicans, and the 60%+ US citizens that support BLM.

Make sure you clean out that bunker. You’re being sent back to the shadows where you belong.

Or....just don’t be ****ing racist and you can come along with the rest of the world. Whatever.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Miggs]

However, you’ll notice that there haven’t been any spikes. The spikes predicted with states opening up 6 weeks ago don’t appear anywhere in this.

Uh, this is exactly what’s happening.

Cases are only plateauing overall because New York and NJ have dropped significantly while others who’ve opened continue to rise.