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stitches said:
You cannot come with a reasonable expectation where you average the highs and the lows because in an exponential the highs overwhelm the lows and it gets there QUICKLY if not stopped. This is why you have to avoid getting to the highs altogether. The median on an exponential is NOT the average/mean. The average is skewed much closer to the end of the exponential. And this doesn't even take into account that you still will have to about double your numbers on the way down to zero once you reach the peak. It doesn't just stop once you break the exponential growth.




Every single major country in the world has followed exponential growth for more than 3 weeks at some point until now. The US is one of them and it continues to follow an exponential growth curve. The ones that don't take the required measures will continue to grow exponentially until they take the measures or the virus run out of people to infect(herd immunity - might be anywhere between about 50 to 80% of the population).

There is no magic equation, because this is a wild disease that we still don't know everything about and it is affected by what you do against it. Measures are taken not uniformly across countries and even when similar measures are taken they are not followed and enforced uniformly. You can look at the data from other countries and make some reasonable predictions. And if I had to bet the US won't get to 70M by May, because they are taking some of the measures that other countries have taken that have reached what seems like a local peak. And IMO if things don't slow down they will continue taking stricter measures until they break the exponential growth. But this is just a guess on my part and here's where the uncertainty comes.

The hard part is not predicting what happens while you are on the exponential curve. The hard part is predicting when you will jump off the exponential.

BTW, this still doesn't answer the question I posed earlier today - what happens after you get it under control and the cases start dropping to 10K... or 1K... do you let loose and risk another peak? Do you wait for it to get to 0? There is a real danger of second peak if the measure are let up and it's still not cleaned out of the population. I don't know what the answer is here at all... I just haven't heard a good(actually ANY) plan about how you restart life without risking it happening again?
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The best post I have read here by far. Amazing job! I wish others could do the same but they'd rather belittle me because I like Trump. So I thank you. I still disagree as I feel averages have and are being used as a base in said models Fauci and Birx talk about. You can most definitely look at other countries and get a very solid idea as to what's in store. The doctors have even admitted to that being a huge part

I understand that the way Im using daily averages may be a little far fetched but my intention is to show what astronomical numbers need to happen to even make a linear scale. Im not doing it to make any predictions. When I say 20,000 people a day it's just to show how many cases it's going to take. Today for example is around 22,000 cases thus far. Next week that could bump to 100,000 cases a day but that number will never stay constqnt as you already know. Next week could be 100,000 the next could be 1500 or 500,000 but it will always come back down.
 
From what I've come to learn the larger cities in NJ are underreporting the number of cases. Perhaps severely underreporting.

If someone in a family has the virus, they tell the rest of the family to self-quarantine. They do NOT test them. The assumption being they probably have the virus and it's not worth testing them. So let's say 1 person in a family of 4 has the virus, they count that 1 person as a positive while it's probable 1 to 3 additional people are also positive, but not tested.
 
JazzyFresh said:
So gross dude. Personally I wish you'd just let up with your obvious copy and pasted bias disinformation for one day. People are dying here. Let no crisis go to waste.
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JazzyFresh said:
@Red

Who says this? Can you provide the doctors who are saying this? From what I'm seeing 200,000 is a high guesstimate. Second paragraph of your obvious propaganda piece.

"The nation’s top health officials say that if everything goes “perfectly,” we will “only” have up to 200,000 dead. If things don’t go perfectly, it could be in the millions, they say."
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Do you remember the study published, the lead author was Dr. Neil Ferguson, along with 30 other medical researchers, and which I posted a link to earlier in this thread? Here it is:

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/im...-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

Now, as I reported at the time, both Dr. Deborah Birx, and Dr. Fauci, the leading doctors on our coronavirus task force, adopted the conclusions of this study. Simply read the study and you will find the estimates, for both GB and the US.

They did not go into one model: doing nothing at all. Obviously, that leads to the most deaths. The two models they did study was mitigation and suppression. Read the article to understand the difference between the strategies of mitigation and suppression. Interestingly, Ferguson, et al, estimated less than 20,000 deaths in GB if suppression was the strategy adopted.

Recently, one of our resident trolls posted something to the effect: "look, Ferguson was wrong! He said hundreds of thousands of UK deaths, now he says less than 20,000! He was so wrong". I'm pretty sure I know who posted that, but, I won't name the poster without being certain. But, here is the thing: Ferguson, et al, in fact did predict <20,000 deaths using the suppression strategy. And that is just the model that GB is attempting to enforce. So the trolls attacking Ferguson's study simply misinterpreted the new estimate, based on GB having adopted suppression. That's what trolls do, misinform, etc., etc. Trolls are not interested in actual facts. The trolls are the ones spreading propoganda.

(Here is one of many articles which trolls, here and on other forums I frequent, used as "evidence" Ferguson had flip flopped. I find many trolls to be inherently stupid people, who have no time to get their facts straight:

https://www.glasgowtimes.co.uk/news...us-lockdown-keep-infection-manageable-levels/)

Now, you have accused ME of promoting propaganda. But, everybody understands by now that I have been posting science based medical research, and I have been posting responsibly. I am a honorable dude, I am not a scaremonger, or an irresponsible troll. And Trump's response is part of this story. So I have not been afraid to post opinions in that respect, either.

I do not need your permission, dude!

Our own doctors, on the cornavirus task force, adopted the study I have just posted a link to. Simply read it and draw your own conclusions.

This is the last time I will respond to your attempts to paint me as a bad person, here only to scare and yuk it up. I am quite through with your nonsense.
 
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Red said:
Do you remember the study published, the lead author was Dr. Neil Ferguson, along with 30 other medical researchers, and which I posted a link to earlier in this thread? Here it is:

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/im...-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

Now, as I reported at the time, both Dr. Deborah Birx, and Dr. Fauci, the leading doctors on our coronavirus task force, adopted the conclusions of this study. Simply read the study and you will find the estimates, for both GB and the US.

They did not go into one model: doing nothing at all. Obviously, that leads to the most deaths. The two models they did study was mitigation and suppression. Read the article to understand the difference between the strategies of mitigation and suppression. Interestingly, Ferguson, et al, estimated less than 20,000 dealths in GB if suppression was the strategy adopted.

Recently, one of our resident trolls posted something to the effect: "look, Ferguson was wrong! He said hundreds of thousands of UK deaths, now he says less than 20,000! He was so wrong". I'm pretty sure I know who posted that, but, I won't name the poster without being certain. But, here is the thing: Ferguson, et al, in fact did predict <20,000 deaths using the suppression strategy. And that is just what GB is doing. So the trolls attacking Ferguson's study simply misinterpreted the new estimate, based on GB having adopted suppression. That's what trolls do, misinform, etc., etc. Trolls are not interested in actual facts. The trolls are the ones spreading propoganda.

Now, you have accused ME of promoting propaganda. But, everybody understands by now that I have been posting science based medical research, and I have been posting responsibly. I am a honorable dude, I am not a scaremonger, or an irresponsible troll.

Our own doctors, on the cornavirus task force, adopted the study I have just posted a link to. Simply read it and draw your own conclusions.

This is the last time I will respond to your attempts to paint me as a bad person, here only to scare and yuk it up. I am quite through with your nonsense.
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"The nation’s top health officials say that if everything goes “perfectly,” we will “only” have up to 200,000 dead. If things don’t go perfectly, it could be in the millions, they say."

This is a propagated lie. 100%. This was paragraph 2 of your propaganda piece. By all means ignore me but I will continue to call things like that out as fear mongering lies. I'll wait while you prove me wrong. Which doctors said this?

Oh and here's the many times you've called people like me, my family, friends and even your own friends cult members. Excuse me for not believing you're what you claim...

https://jazzfanz.com/search/16593854/?q=Cult&o=date&c[node]=3&c[user][0]=3085
 
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Anyone else starting to fight more with their family? This is the third week of working from home/schools being out and everyone seems to be getting more feisty. These bitches should just accept that I'm probably right and getting Panda Express is not supporting local businesses (but that $20 family meal is pretty kick-***).

This is just the appetizer too - I'm anticipating WFH until June if I'm lucky.
 
Avery said:
Anyone else starting to fight more with their family? This is the third week of working from home/schools being out and everyone seems to be getting more feisty. These bitches should just accept that I'm probably right and getting Panda Express is not supporting local businesses (but that $20 family meal is pretty kick-***).

This is just the appetizer too - I'm anticipating WFH until June if I'm lucky.
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Yeah, def more. I had to let my three year old son know what the ****’s up at 8:15 this am and told I’m no tv all day. It wasn’t so bad...after baths, about 45 ago, we let them start to watch a couple shows before bed.

Ordered out for the third time in five nights. Going to pick this up shortly.

Eggplant rollatini for app

Pan Seared Allen Brothers Ribeye for Two
Served Steak House Style: Mashed Potatoes, Spinach, Peroni Beer Battered Onion Rings, Port Wine Reduction for me

Kobe Meatballs with House Made Peciatelli
Filetto di Pomodoro, Parmesan for wife

Seasoned fries on side
 
Wes Mantooth said:
Eggplant rollatini for app

Pan Seared Allen Brothers Ribeye for Two
Served Steak House Style: Mashed Potatoes, Spinach, Peroni Beer Battered Onion Rings, Port Wine Reduction for me

Kobe Meatballs with House Made Peciatelli
Filetto di Pomodoro, Parmesan for wife

Seasoned fries on side
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What dollar menu is that?
 
@JazzyFresh, I've just got to ask - why are you so invested in trying to be right about a virus that at this point no one can accurately predict. I don't understand what your endgame is here. We get it, you don't like some of the numbers. But why fight it to the death? You don't know, I don't know, Trump doesn't know, Fauci doesn't know. No one knows how this will play out. Get over yourself already. Trying to bet on people's lives? That's messed up.
 
Utah state data, updated this afternoon:
** 1,012 positive diagnoses from a base of 21,167 tests (4.8% Covid infection rate)
** 7 deaths (0.69% fatality rate)
 
JazzGal said:
@JazzyFresh, I've just got to ask - why are you so invested in trying to be right about a virus that at this point no one can accurately predict. I don't understand what your endgame is here. We get it, you don't like some of the numbers. But why fight it to the death? You don't know, I don't know, Trump doesn't know, Fauci doesn't know. No one knows how this will play out. Get over yourself already. Trying to bet on people's lives? That's messed up.
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Because people are fighting me to the death... And I agree but it was only to prove a point that people make unsubstantiated claims that they cant back up. It was to prove people are arguing with me just to argue and yes it was in bad taste. I have no problem admitting I'm in the wrong when I am. Whatever though I was going to take a break from here anyways. I am over it. I think I have laid out a very proper case and have put far more effort into this than needed. I'm absolutely certain I am right on this and that's why I'm wasting so much time. Just tired of misinformation... Tired of the whole thing really.
 
Big shoutout to @stitches for his patience in trying to explain exponential growth to @JazzyFresh . However, it's kind of sad when you still get this:

"Averages can tell you a whole lot. Exponential growth just doesn't pick and choose where it wants to grow based off of invisible border lines"
"I still disagree as I feel averages have and are being used as a base in said models Fauci and Birx talk about"

Stitches, beers on me if you ever come to Mexico City. Jazzy? Maybe a burrito for you :D. Just kidding, stay safe.
 
JazzyFresh said:
Because people are fighting me to the death... And I agree but it was only to prove a point that people make unsubstantiated claims that they cant back up. It was to prove people are arguing with me just to argue and yes it was in bad taste. I have no problem admitting I'm in the wrong when I am. Whatever though I was going to take a break from here anyways. I am over it. I think I have laid out a very proper case and have put far more effort into this than needed. I'm absolutely certain I am right on this and that's why I'm wasting so much time. Just tired of misinformation... Tired of the whole thing really.
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People aren't fighting you to the death lol.
You keep bringing it up in your daily updates.
I know you like to play the victim though.

Sent from my ONEPLUS A6013 using JazzFanz mobile app
 
BabyPeterzz said:
Just thought I would chime in and say Trump and the feds are so far behind local gov it’s ****ing embarrassing. Coming from someone on the front lines of this thing. Feds should be leading and we all fall in line. They can barely keep up right now. Just wait till throwing money everywhere will effect a post-COVID economy. This is so long from over folks, and our fed response has been half-assed at best and Trump is the bumbling moron steering us into the iceberg. ***** about to get waaaay worse and we’re woefully unprepared.

What a failure.

Stay home, stay safe. Carry on.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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Lol it's the other way around. The federal government has been doing fine. They locked down the borders fast. They are building makeshift hospitals and docking hospital ships to help. They weren't prepared in terms of equipment and scale but that's more telling of our society being one of procrastination than anything. No matter who was in the white house this was always going to be the case.

It's government on a state level that is failing miserably. State leaders in New York literally told people to ignore coronavirus for months. Told them to go to Chinese New Years festivities and what not. They didn't take it serious until it was too late. Similar things happened in Florida.

Hell we don't have to look any further than inside Utah to see the incompetence. Governor Herbert can't make a decisive move to save his life. Everything is a half hearted recommendation. Don't gather. But if you do we won't stop you.... These things are closed but these stay open.... These are kinda closed, kinda open..... Evictions should be delayed for rentors, but oh wait I meant only for people directly affected by COVID, how will we decide that? Who knows.

He a clown
 
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