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Coronavirus

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It is worth mentioning that testing has basically flattened out since April started so it's expected that the case count vs. test count should correlate. Not sure if there's a graph out there plotting both those Y data points.
 
Lol you guys were saying 75,000,000 people were going to get sick. You're flat out lying now to cover you're flat out stupid argument.

I guarantee you that you won't find one post of your guys that says the exponential growth will flatten out. Not one.

I still think 75M will get infected. Thanks to the efforts in social distancing, it will now take longer. I didn't realize how many would remain asymptomatic, so I was wrong about that.

If you were a poster who had a history of acknowledging error and apologizing for it, I might be motivated to go back and show this was what I was arguing.
 
See. This is exactly what you were saying. Lololololol

"Will it triple every week? Probably not. Will the number jump by larger amounts every day? Yes, for quite while."

My graph starts the same day you posted this... April 1st the very day the curve started to flatten.

There you go. Social distancing worked.
 
That's exactly what I've been saying lololol. You all were arguing just to argue. You all 100% said exponential growth could cause 75,000,000 cases and I...me... Was saying the AVERAGE exponential growth was 2 weeks and theres no possible way we hit 75,000,000. You told me I can use averages but I was 100% correct.

YES, because exponential growth would have caused hundreds of millions of cases(NOT deaths). This is why you try to break the exponential growth through measures. Because otherwise it WOULD HAVE GONE OVER 75M.

Also, no... the exponential growth was NOT 2 weeks. It started with the first recorded case in the US on Jan 20th and was broken roughly at the beginning of April(so that's about 9-10 weeks). Can you guess why beginning of April? Because that's the rough timeline that most lockdowns takes to work - Trump declared state of emergency on March 13. It takes about 2 weeks for the exponential to be lowered under 35% and then gradually to break the exponential altogether. This is the time it takes for the measures to take hold. It's not guaranteed it will happen, because you don't know how strictly the measures will be, how well they will be enforced, how conscientious the population will be, etc.

If we didn't believe the curve can be flattened and the exponential broken, noone would be advocating for those measures. I personally wanted those measures before they were taken. It was obvious this was the right thing to do precisely because of the exponential spread which if not broken would have annihilated my country, which doesn't have the resources and economy of the US. We recorded our first cases of COVID-19 on March 8th and then declared state of emergency on March 13th(with confirmed only 31 cases). I hate with passion the Bulgarian political elite, I've never been a fan of the ruling party and their leader, I've never voted for them in my life. With that said... they did save a ton of people by acting fast and not waiting for it to be politically expedient and for the bodies to start to mount. That I cannot deny them. They did well by the people and acted like leaders when it was truly needed. I bet they will continue with their shady business practices and corruption once this thing is over, but for now I feel like they did well with the resources we had.
 
The original discussion on flattening the curve really was just an effort not to overwhelm hospital resources. The diagram below points this out very literally. The eventual number of infections in the population isn't expected to be reduced. Instead, those infections are being spread over a longer period of time (the speed of the spread is being slowed) so that hospitals can handle the load. Eventually, the same number of people are expected to be exposed to the virus--maybe as much as 50% or 70% of the population will be exposed within the next 12 months.

The only way to have prevented this would be to ban all air traffic into the U.S. back in December and then test and hard quarantine everyone who enters the country. That didn't happen.

Now a combination of government resources and private companies have mobilized to produce masks, face shields, medical clean suits, makeshift hospitals, ICU beds and ventilators. The hospitals have been gearing up while the socially distanced population has slowed the spread to buy time. That's all that's happening.

This is not guaranteed to happen BTW. Depends on how much you flatten the curve and how flat you keep it once you reopen the economy. It is possible to do it well enough that not only will you save your hospitals from being overrun, but you will also be able to keep the daily new cases low enough that you develop a vaccine before 50-70% of the population is infected.

Just an example. Lets say on April 14 2021 we will be able to vaccinate everybody in the world. That's 365 days. It took the US about 10 weeks to reach the peak lets say it takes about one more month to drop it and unleash the economy. South Korea is recording about 100 new cases every day after they reached their peak and lowered it and have a relatively open economy, but with measures still taking place(social distancing, masks, lots of testing and contact tracing, etc). They have 50M population. 100 cases a day for 50M population. The US probably doesn't have that type of discipline and culture about epidemics so lets say the US is able to drop the cases to 10000 cases a day in a month or so and they reopen the economy with similar measures and asks for people to not gather in big groups, to keep distance where possible, to wear masks in public, etc. This would mean that in a year's time you will get about 3.65M infected. Which is tons, but not close to 50-70% of the population.
 
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Of course it did. It's exactly why you and others predicting 75,000,000 cases was so unbelievably stupid and why I argued your stupid numbers ad nauseum. Because...it...was...so...stupid.
When those numbers were first posted what you should have said is "we will lockdown the country and practice social distancing which will make it so we never reach those numbers"
I bet no one would have argued with you if you said that. (I don't really remember people arguing with you anyways but I know how you like to play up the victim role so I will let you have your fun)

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I'm reading the Vox article. What I think will happen is that industries will restart, one after another, with some semi-permanent rules to manage person-to-person contact.

Beyond that, however, I think the CDC and NIH have conceded that this covid19 will remain at large, it will continue to circulate along with all the other flu-like viruses, and eventually most people will be exposed to it. Assuming the virus doesn't mutate too much for the worse, fewer than 10% of those infected will require some form of treatment or hospitalization, and fewer than 10% of those who need medical treatment will pass away. High-risk groups, such as the elderly or people with conditions such as diabetes, will need to continue to isolate themselves for their own protection. Hospitals will have to organize their resources longer term to manage infectious disease as a greater priority.

Even if the U.S. instituted the mobile-tracking solution that's being used in Singapore, there would be a huge shortfall in people agreeing to comply with it. As the Vox article's data indicates, many people would refuse to install the mobile app because they don't want the government tracking them and telling them they need to quarantine. They would prefer to just get infected and bear the consequences. The vast majority of them will feel some symptoms for a week or two, like the flu, and then they'll go on about their lives.

Even when a vaccine comes out, a significant number of people will refuse to take it, I'd imagine.
China obviously has the ability to force people to do more. But they have been using phone tracking for awhile. But they don't force you to. It's mainly transportation that requires it. You can't get into a bus station, airport, or train station with out it. Then the other part is businesses requiring it to enter. But those take the government pushing it pretty hard on businesses.
 
Of course it did. It's exactly why you and others predicting 75,000,000 cases was so unbelievably stupid and why I argued your stupid numbers ad nauseum. Because...it...was...so...stupid.

So, you were arguing in favor of the social distancing guidelines? I apologize for missing that.
 
So, you were arguing in favor of the social distancing guidelines? I apologize for missing that.
Yes... I was simply arguing that with measures taken, with averages of other countries numbers flattening, the average curvature before flattening, and the average exponential growth time period between these countries we will not hit nothing even close to 75,000,000. Do people now understand simple averages? Do you understand why I was asking why Americans will get sick at 30-50% like you all claimed while the rest of the world is under .08%?

I have repeatedly said I agree with social distancing. I have even given blue states like Washington and especially California officials like Newsome credit. I think this country as a whole has done a pretty damn good job and that includes Trump after his initial blunders.
 
Yes... I was simply arguing that with measures taken, with averages of other countries numbers flattening, the average curvature before flattening, and the average exponential growth time period between these countries we will not hit nothing even close to 75,000,000. Do people now understand simple averages? Do you understand why I was asking why Americans will get sick at 30-50% like you all claimed while the rest of the world is under .08%?

I have repeatedly said I agree with social distancing. I have even given blue states like Washington and especially California officials like Newsome credit. I think this country as a whole has done a pretty damn good job and that includes Trump after his initial blunders.

Yes, logical social distancing is good and makes sense. Shutting everything down is stupid and was bas on misinformation and fear.
 
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