D'Angelo Russell

[LoPo]

Oh damn, I had not seen Russell's FTr stats. Yikes. That is concerning. I love his offensive creation and passing, as well as his shooting... and I do think he fits really well with Mitchell in theory. He's got PG feel and skills. But as I said earlier - he definitely has not done enough to deserve what it would probably take to get him. You will have to project a bit and you will have to trust in your development staff to refine his game and make him more efficient.

Unless there is some stat I'm misinterpreting, I just don't know why this FT rate is that big of a deal. Klay Thompson took 1.3 FT per game last year. Does that mean he isn't valuable? Jrue Holiday had 4 seasons where he shot the same or less FT per game than Russell this year. I wouldn't want to get Russell to be the one attacking all the time. I want Mitchell to be that guy. If I am not understanding this stat, I apologize.

Has anybody ever complained about Rubio's FT rate? I don't remember that ever being an issue. Rubio shoots 1.3 more FT per game than Russell. But people also have to remember - Rubio takes every technical free throw. I don't know the exact stat, but I would guess that he gets 1 FT per game simply from being the technical FT taker.

 

[fishonjazz]

What would Russell's contact look like.
I would really like to get Russell but there is a limit on what I would want to pay

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[stitches]

Unless there is some stat I'm misinterpreting, I just don't know why this FT rate is that big of a deal. Klay Thompson took 1.3 FT per game last year. Does that mean he isn't valuable? Jrue Holiday had 4 seasons where he shot the same or less FT per game than Russell this year. I wouldn't want to get Russell to be the one attacking all the time. I want Mitchell to be that guy. If I am not understanding this stat, I apologize.

Has anybody ever complained about Rubio's FT rate? I don't remember that ever being an issue. Rubio shoots 1.3 more FT per game than Russell. But people also have to remember - Rubio takes every technical free throw. I don't know the exact stat, but I would guess that he gets 1 FT per game simply from being the technical FT taker.

There is a difference between a role player and a primary/secondary ballhandler not getting FTs. Klay doesn't handle the ball like... at all... he's got one of the fewest dribble per shot ratios in the history of the league from a perimeter player. He is not relied to break down the defense, he's not relied to drive, create advantage, etc. He's a finisher(of the possessions). Probably the best there has ever been in his role. He's like a... extremely souped up rich man's version of a Korver/Danny Green/JJ Redick types. There just aren't many opportunities for him to get fouled. When you are a PG and you have the ball in your hands in most possessions, not getting fouled means one of two things - you are either not aggressive enough, or you cannot create advantage situations where you put the opponent in compromised positions.

In a vacuum not getting fouled is not a problem if you are efficient enough. The problem is that Klay not getting fouled doesn't effect his efficiency which is extremely high(again he gets easier off-ball shots), while a primary/secondary ballhandler not getting fouls effects his efficiency partly because by the nature of his role he gets harder shots and he needs to supplement his efficiency through drawing fouls in order to prop it up.

Also... pure number of FTs isn't really a great stat(since it doesn't take into account how involved you are in the offense - the more involved you are the easier it is to get fouled). You should be looking at free throw rate(FTr), it's more indicative. Russell's FTr this year is .111... Rubio's is .277, which is about 2.5 times higher. And again you will not get much argument from me about Rubio's efficiency... he's always been inefficient offensive player. Which BTW is the case with Russell too... right now he's at 51% TS%... which is bad.

 

[LoPo]

What would Russell's contact look like.
I would really like to get Russell but there is a limit on what I would want to pay

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My guess is that Russell gets between $20 and $25 million. I don't think he'll get that full $27.25 million max deal that either Brooklyn or another team can give. If he continues playing like he has the last month, he might get it, but I doubt it.

It is very important to remember that the salary cap increases by $7 million for 2019 ($109) and another $9 million in 2020 ($118). So teams will have $16 million more to spend by the time we hit 2020 than we do right now. As for the luxury, the limit jumps to $132 for next year and an amazing $143 in 2020.

A lot of guys will start getting $20 million contracts because it will only represent 1/6 of the cap number and 1/7 of the luxury number.

 

[LoPo]

There is a difference between a role player and a primary/secondary ballhandler not getting FTs. Klay doesn't handle the ball like... at all... he's got one of the fewest dribble per shot ratios in the history of the league from a perimeter player. He is not relied to break down the defense, he's not relied to drive, create advantage, etc. He's a finisher. Probably the best there has ever been in his role. He's like a... extremely souped up rich man's version of a Korver/Danny Green/JJ Redick types. There just aren't many opportunities for him to get fouled. When you are a PG and you have the ball in your hands in most possessions, not getting fouled means one of two things - you are either not aggressive enough, or you cannot create advantage situations where you put the opponent in compromised positions.

In a vacuum not getting fouled is not a problem if you are efficient enough. The problem is that Klay not getting fouled doesn't effect his efficiency which is extremely high(again he gets easier off-ball shots), while a primary/secondary ballhandler not getting fouls effects his efficiency partly because by the nature of his role he gets harder shots and he needs to supplement his efficiency through drawing fouls in order to prop it up.

Also... pure number of FTs isn't really a great stat(since it doesn't take into account how involved you are in the offense - the more involved you are the easier it is to get fouled). You should be looking at free throw rate(FTr), it's more indicative. Russell's FTr this year is .111... Rubio's is .277, which is about 2.5 times higher. And again you will not get much argument from me about Rubio's efficiency... he's always been inefficient offensive player. Which BTW is the case with Russell too... right now he's at 51% TS%... which is bad.

Thank you for the information. I do appreciate it. The comparison for Klay was a great breakdown.

So I'm curious, how does Rubio earn such a better FT rate? He shoots a worse percentage, EFG%, etc. How is this stat calculated? Does it help or is it indifferent for Rubio to have those free FT that come from technicals?

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

If Russell was picked late first round would people be super high on him being awesome? How much premium do you have to pay for draft pedigree?

 

[stitches]

Thank you for the information. I do appreciate it. The comparison for Klay was a great breakdown.

So I'm curious, how does Rubio earn such a better FT rate? He shoots a worse percentage, EFG%, etc. How is this stat calculated? Does it help or is it indifferent for Rubio to have those free FT that come from technicals?

It's essentially what % of your possessions end in free throws. I think the official definition is FTA/FGA... The technicals shouldn't affect it. About how is Rubio getting fouled this much(compared to Russell) - he's probably more aggressive on drives and has the quickness to put opponents in compromised position where they have to foul him.

 

[LoPo]

It's essentially what % of your possessions end in free throws. I think the official definition is FTA/FGA... The technicals shouldn't affect it. About how is Rubio getting fouled this much(compared to Russell) - he's probably more aggressive on drives and has the quickness to put opponents in compromised position where they have to foul him.

I find that very, very interesting especially since they shoot roughly the same number of FT per game outside those techs. Very interesting. I wonder if Russell gets some cheap FT at the end of games when they are up. Maybe that takes his FT attempt number up but doesn't affect his rate.

Thanks again for educating me. It still seems like trying to understand an NFL QB rating, but at least I know that the calculations don't take those cheap FT's into account.

 

[Thee Idiotic Minivan K]

My guess is that Russell gets between $20 and $25 million. I don't think he'll get that full $27.25 million max deal that either Brooklyn or another team can give. If he continues playing like he has the last month, he might get it, but I doubt it.

It is very important to remember that the salary cap increases by $7 million for 2019 ($109) and another $9 million in 2020 ($118). So teams will have $16 million more to spend by the time we hit 2020 than we do right now. As for the luxury, the limit jumps to $132 for next year and an amazing $143 in 2020.

A lot of guys will start getting $20 million contracts because it will only represent 1/6 of the cap number and 1/7 of the luxury number.

Signing him to that kind of deal is like saying I give up because you aren’t going to be able to improve to being a contender unless you get lucky in the draft, which is a crapshoot

 

[LoPo]

If Russell was picked late first round would people be super high on him being awesome? How much premium do you have to pay for draft pedigree?

I personally wouldn't pay more for him because where he was drafted.

 

[fishonjazz]

There is a difference between a role player and a primary/secondary ballhandler not getting FTs. Klay doesn't handle the ball like... at all... he's got one of the fewest dribble per shot ratios in the history of the league from a perimeter player. He is not relied to break down the defense, he's not relied to drive, create advantage, etc. He's a finisher(of the possessions). Probably the best there has ever been in his role. He's like a... extremely souped up rich man's version of a Korver/Danny Green/JJ Redick types. There just aren't many opportunities for him to get fouled. When you are a PG and you have the ball in your hands in most possessions, not getting fouled means one of two things - you are either not aggressive enough, or you cannot create advantage situations where you put the opponent in compromised positions.

In a vacuum not getting fouled is not a problem if you are efficient enough. The problem is that Klay not getting fouled doesn't effect his efficiency which is extremely high(again he gets easier off-ball shots), while a primary/secondary ballhandler not getting fouls effects his efficiency partly because by the nature of his role he gets harder shots and he needs to supplement his efficiency through drawing fouls in order to prop it up.

Also... pure number of FTs isn't really a great stat(since it doesn't take into account how involved you are in the offense - the more involved you are the easier it is to get fouled). You should be looking at free throw rate(FTr), it's more indicative. Russell's FTr this year is .111... Rubio's is .277, which is about 2.5 times higher. And again you will not get much argument from me about Rubio's efficiency... he's always been inefficient offensive player. Which BTW is the case with Russell too... right now he's at 51% TS%... which is bad.

Fair point about Klay. I would argue however that Rubio and holiday (two others that lopo compared free throw rates with) do in fact handle the ball a lot.

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[fishonjazz]

My guess is that Russell gets between $20 and $25 million. I don't think he'll get that full $27.25 million max deal that either Brooklyn or another team can give. If he continues playing like he has the last month, he might get it, but I doubt it.

It is very important to remember that the salary cap increases by $7 million for 2019 ($109) and another $9 million in 2020 ($118). So teams will have $16 million more to spend by the time we hit 2020 than we do right now. As for the luxury, the limit jumps to $132 for next year and an amazing $143 in 2020.

A lot of guys will start getting $20 million contracts because it will only represent 1/6 of the cap number and 1/7 of the luxury number.

20 would be my limit. Wouldn't do 25 or 27

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[fishonjazz]

It's essentially what % of your possessions end in free throws. I think the official definition is FTA/FGA... The technicals shouldn't affect it. About how is Rubio getting fouled this much(compared to Russell) - he's probably more aggressive on drives and has the quickness to put opponents in compromised position where they have to foul him.

And Rubio sucks at shooting so that would make him more likely to drive to try to get a more make-able shot. I would guess that great three point shooters don't typically drive as often of guys who can't shoot as well. When I think of some of the best 3 point shooters I don't think they went to the line frequently (I could be wrong). Korver, Reggie Miller, Ray Allen, Klay, Joe Ingles, etc. I doubt many of those guys go to the line very often.

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[LoPo]

Signing him to that kind of deal is like saying I give up because you aren’t going to be able to improve to being a contender unless you get lucky in the draft, which is a crapshoot

The only questions I ask are these - is the guy better than what we have and is the guy better than what we can get in free agency/trade? For question 1, I feel that Russell is better than Rubio now and will become a better player over time. I also think Russell is a better PG option than Exum for the long term.

As for question 2, just look at this list of summer free agent guards:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/tommyb...agent-ranking-the-top-10-guards/#d25526754215

The conversation will probably come down to Russell vs Bledsoe, Dragic, Rozier and Brogdon. I don't think there is any other PG available via trade or free agency who is better unless Jrue somehow becomes available. I think the Bucks keep either Brogdon or Bledsoe. With Dragic's injury (out two months), does he pick up his $18+ player option? Is he even available? So then, it comes down to Russell vs Bledsoe/Brogdon and Rozier.

And that just comes down to who we want. Don't forget that half the NBA has major money this summer. If we already have Russell via trade, that means we get to keep him instead of hoping and praying we lure a PG better than Rubio.

 

[fishonjazz]

So then, it comes down to Russell vs Bledsoe/Brogdon and Rozier.

I don't know much about how much each of these guys will get but I'm thinking Russell will get the biggest contact, then brogdon, then bledsoe, then rozier. (Let me know your opinion on those guys upcoming contacts)
If that's the case my first choice would be brogdon followed by Russell, bledsoe, and rozier.

I figure rozier is the most get-able of the group followed by bledsoe. I'm guessing brogdon is the hardest one to acquire and Russell the next hardest. What are your thoughts on that regard?

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[Thee Idiotic Minivan K]

The only questions I ask are these - is the guy better than what we have and is the guy better than what we can get in free agency/trade? For question 1, I feel that Russell is better than Rubio now and will become a better player over time. I also think Russell is a better PG option than Exum for the long term.

As for question 2, just look at this list of summer free agent guards:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/tommyb...agent-ranking-the-top-10-guards/#d25526754215

The conversation will probably come down to Russell vs Bledsoe, Dragic, Rozier and Brogdon. I don't think there is any other PG available via trade or free agency who is better unless Jrue somehow becomes available. I think the Bucks keep either Brogdon or Bledsoe. With Dragic's injury (out two months), does he pick up his $18+ player option? Is he even available? So then, it comes down to Russell vs Bledsoe/Brogdon and Rozier.

And that just comes down to who we want. Don't forget that half the NBA has major money this summer. If we already have Russell via trade, that means we get to keep him instead of hoping and praying we lure a PG better than Rubio.

1. For me he’s not a good enough of an improvement if at all, and if he is, it’s minimal. And he’d have the same affect AK had on the jazz with that contract preventing us from making any substantial improvements.

2. I’m on record saying we need to let Rubio walk and move Mitchell to pg.

I’m also of the mind set that we can sign big name free agents, not a LBJ or Durant type, but a Harris , Middleton type, yes. Will we, maybe maybe not. I don’t think the jazz have really too hard in the recent pass because the jazz were young and wanted to see what was cooking, but the time to make a splash is coming sooner then later.


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[LoPo]

I don't know much about how much each of these guys will get but I'm thinking Russell will get the biggest contact, then brogdon, then bledsoe, then rozier. (Let me know your opinion on those guys upcoming contacts)
If that's the case my first choice would be brogdon followed by Russell, bledsoe, and rozier.

I figure rozier is the most get-able of the group followed by bledsoe. I'm guessing brogdon is the hardest one to acquire and Russell the next hardest. What are your thoughts on that regard?

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I agree. Here is how I would break it down. I'm gonna throw Dragic in this since he could opt out and I do think he is an upgrade over Rubio if we are talking about during the life of the contract:

Biggest contract - Russell, Brogdon, Rozier, Dragic/Bledsoe

Most attainable:
- Bledsoe (unrestricted, 30 years old)
- Rozier (restricted, entering prime, have to overpay or Boston matches)
- Dragic (player option, Miami will want to keep if he does opt out, 33 years old)
- Russell (restricted, very young, have to overpay or Brooklyn matches)
- Brodgon (restricted, entering prime, have to overpay or Milwaukee matches)

If we are talking about salaries, let's just look at the following. In 2021, Mitchell and Gobert will be entering new contracts. Let's just say that the salary cap and luxury only goes up $2 million (low estimate but let's plan for worse case scenario). So the cap would be $120 and luxury $145 in 2021. If Mitchell gets a max, it's $30 million in 2021. Let's also say that we give Gobert the max which is $40 million (I wouldn't give him that much but we are talking worse case scenario here. We'd be spending $70 million on our best two players but still have $50 million to spend before we get under the cap. That's still a ton of money to spend.

So $25 million right now seems like a ton, but when you look at how much the cap is spiking, it's really not as bad as $25 today (just look at Chandler Parsons).

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

I personally wouldn't pay more for him because where he was drafted.

I think anyone that gets him is paying a premium for draft status... unless the Nets need to get off his caphold and make him unrestricted. If that happens I think he could be had in the 15-17M realm. But if he plays better than he is right now his price could sky.

Development wise if he could become a poor mans Kyrie I think that’s his ceiling. His finishing was better in other years but not as good as Kyrie’s obvi... to be worth the contract I think he will get this offseason I think he needs to be 45% FG and 40%+ from three and his defense needs to improve... not impossible but not what I’d project.

 

[LoPo]

1. For me he’s not a good enough of an improvement if at all, and if he is, it’s minimal. And he’d have the same affect AK had on the jazz with that contract preventing us from making any substantial improvements.

2. I’m on record saying we need to let Rubio walk and move Mitchell to pg.

I’m also of the mind set that we can sign big name free agents, not a LBJ or Durant type, but a Harris , Middleton type, yes. Will we, maybe maybe not. I don’t think the jazz have really too hard in the recent pass because the jazz were young and wanted to see what was cooking, but the time to make a splash is coming sooner then later.


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I respect your opinion.

The saying goes that a bird in hand is worth two in the bush. I would rather have Tobias or Middleton than Russell. However, I like our chances of making our best possible run with Mitchell, Gobert and Ingles by getting Russell before the deadline than hoping and praying we get Tobias or Middleton this summer. If we miss out on those two and don't get Russell or Rozier, we are more than likely going to have a Rubio, Exum or similar as our starting PG next year. And probably not an improvement at PF either.

I think Mitchell can play some PG, but won't be our primary PG.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Some skills here tho.

It's really funny some of what counts as an assist in the NBA.