I am not sure it is exactly a model: it happened once. Somehow teams are not crazy to trade their young talent with All Star potential (Keegan Murray, Jalen Williams) for a star (Lauri). And OKC still had to tank for two seasons and was rewarded with Holmgren (2nd pick) and Giddey (6th), so in reality it was the same tanking model with a lucky twist.
Does Lauri Get Traded?
- Thread starter Saint Cy of JFC
- Start date
If it doesnt happen this off-season I doubt it ever happens.
Handlogten's Heros
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And I was probably being harder or assuming you were headed some places that I have rehashed. My bad. I think the NBA landscape is shifting a bit so its hard to find exact models. Not that everything is so unique. I just think our situation currently the tank is by far the wisest course of action. If we didn't owe a pick to OKC, if the next two drafts appeared to be "meh", and if the right win now players came available... I might see it different.
And let it be known... I think its absolutely stupid that the system we participate in requires/rewards teams being really bad to have a shot at legendary talents. And that ultimately you need to be bad and get just straight luck. I don't have a much better replacement but this just all seems counterintuitive to sport and competition.
If we land top 5 in next years draft and retain Lauri I do think we have a shot to do something awesome. With Lauri I just keep coming back to - Stock and Malone wanted to be here, Rudy wanted to be here, and guys like Gordo, DWill, Donny, Booze all kind of wanted out or bailed out for one reason or another. I don't want to have that loser mentality of "these guys will leave us" but it also seems weird to be like "trade this AS that wants to be here". I just want us to be straight with him about it being 1-2 year process or longer if we strike out. I also think with the West the way it is and with as many teams as there are that are all-in... we can end up 3rd or 4th in the league if we cut other parts and it can be a pretty quick turnaround.
Also with the cap issues teams are having the next 12-24 months could bring some unforeseen tear downs. We'd be in a position to short cut the process but not short change it if things line up right. If it doesn't we move Lauri later in part to do right by him.
Still catching up on all the news, but I get the impression that there were no godfather offers out there and Ainge will not accept less that that. So I guess we're somewhat in the same holding pattern that we've always been in. There is a price for everyone, for Lauri it is high, that offer doesn't exist for him at this moment. Extremely freezing take, I know, but this is evident by Lauri not being traded yet.
I remember having a similar conversation when were talking Don trades. Some argued to death that we should be willing to take a worse deal to tank more immediately. Seems as though these conversations always turns circular because there are too many permutations based on low probability outcomes. You're going to need an incredible string of luck and great decision making no what path you take and the more big picture you take things the more murky things get. You can't actually all the possibilities and permutations, whatever you're biased towards you will see the light and vice versa. There is no model.
What I do think gets discounted in these discussions is that while drafting higher is undeniably better than drafting lower, the goal of a rebuild isn't necessarily to have the best chance of drafting a star. The goal of a rebuild is to have as most talent as possible and what I would not discount is the 100% chance at having Lauri Markannen. So while it's undeniable that Lauri hurts our tank chances, how do you weigh that versus the chances of getting another Lauri in addition to another star. This is the same question to ask for Sexton and Kessler as well. You're always making that calculation on whether or not this player is worth whatever lottery odds they might take away from you. I think it's an interesting discussion on both, but that will need another thread.
The other side of this is there's theoretically always a chance you can trade for a player of Lauri's caliber again. As much as I love Lauri, I really don't think he's the kind of generational talent that you must build around. While you can't ever hope that a Luka/Giannis type will be available in trade and willing to go to Utah, you can with reasonable confidence think that someone of Lauri's caliber could be acquire through trade at some point down the line. This obviously goes for players like Sexton and Kessler as well.
Even though my standards of what a "godfather" offer appear to be different, I don't think it's worth it to trade him for a subpar offer. I learned that he can be traded on deadline day this season, so you can keep your options open. From a personal enjoyment perspective, I think it's incredibly lame that we're entering another season where we're not competing for a top lotto spot or a playoff spot....but at least I can say with this roster there aren't any players where I'm thinking "what's the point of him being here". Lauri, Sexton, and Kessler....you could argue that they are all worth their weight even though they will make you lose lotto balls. The young guys are the young guys. The JC's are their own category where it's a completely different decision and that decision is to dump them or not with their negative value contracts + open up playing time or wait for them to expire + pray they rehab value. What we don't have are a bunch of pointless veterans that have positive value but don't figure to play into a long term future.
If there's a chance for a godfather offer, it's probably not going to happen until deadline when Lauri is on an extended deal. I'm willing to take half a season of worse tanking than a worse offer right now.
I remember having a similar conversation when were talking Don trades. Some argued to death that we should be willing to take a worse deal to tank more immediately. Seems as though these conversations always turns circular because there are too many permutations based on low probability outcomes. You're going to need an incredible string of luck and great decision making no what path you take and the more big picture you take things the more murky things get. You can't actually all the possibilities and permutations, whatever you're biased towards you will see the light and vice versa. There is no model.
What I do think gets discounted in these discussions is that while drafting higher is undeniably better than drafting lower, the goal of a rebuild isn't necessarily to have the best chance of drafting a star. The goal of a rebuild is to have as most talent as possible and what I would not discount is the 100% chance at having Lauri Markannen. So while it's undeniable that Lauri hurts our tank chances, how do you weigh that versus the chances of getting another Lauri in addition to another star. This is the same question to ask for Sexton and Kessler as well. You're always making that calculation on whether or not this player is worth whatever lottery odds they might take away from you. I think it's an interesting discussion on both, but that will need another thread.
The other side of this is there's theoretically always a chance you can trade for a player of Lauri's caliber again. As much as I love Lauri, I really don't think he's the kind of generational talent that you must build around. While you can't ever hope that a Luka/Giannis type will be available in trade and willing to go to Utah, you can with reasonable confidence think that someone of Lauri's caliber could be acquire through trade at some point down the line. This obviously goes for players like Sexton and Kessler as well.
Even though my standards of what a "godfather" offer appear to be different, I don't think it's worth it to trade him for a subpar offer. I learned that he can be traded on deadline day this season, so you can keep your options open. From a personal enjoyment perspective, I think it's incredibly lame that we're entering another season where we're not competing for a top lotto spot or a playoff spot....but at least I can say with this roster there aren't any players where I'm thinking "what's the point of him being here". Lauri, Sexton, and Kessler....you could argue that they are all worth their weight even though they will make you lose lotto balls. The young guys are the young guys. The JC's are their own category where it's a completely different decision and that decision is to dump them or not with their negative value contracts + open up playing time or wait for them to expire + pray they rehab value. What we don't have are a bunch of pointless veterans that have positive value but don't figure to play into a long term future.
If there's a chance for a godfather offer, it's probably not going to happen until deadline when Lauri is on an extended deal. I'm willing to take half a season of worse tanking than a worse offer right now.
Getting a top 5 pick in next years draft whether we keep Lauri or not sets us up really well. Dylan Harper is my 5th pick right now and I he is still a great fit with us.
Pg- Dylan Harper, Collier
Sg- Key, Cody Williams
Sf- Hendricks
Pf- Lauri, Collins
C- Walker, Flip
Sexton is a little bit difficult to figure out as a long term piece. If you want to solidify the tank this year moving Sexton could the piece to move if the value is there.
We would also be looking at 2 other first in probably the 20-30 range from the cavs and wolves.
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I think we still need a trade or two to really do that. Coaches will lean into their vets so you kinda have to remove the temptation. As bad as Clarkson was last year I think Collier would be worse in terms of winning games. Collins wasn't a worldbeater but if you have him and Sexton they could create enough PnR magic to win a few games you don't want to. Many of the tanking teams will have youth in the rotation. I doubt all 6 first and second year players will be in the rotation unless we move stuff around.
framer
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I think the problem is the failure to recognize the very large downside to tanking.Tanking and missing on a "superstar" has very real and large consequences. Also it is not at all entertaining and largely removes mine and many others desire to be a fan. If my team is unwatchable for 5 years, I am just going to move on to other stuff.
You are more likely to become Washington than hit on a Wemby.
Thee Jazz Fan
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But no one wants them and no one will pay what Sexton is worth to us.
I think the last part is the true "unknown". It feels like this offseason already the stupid money isnt there anymore. Lots of GMs and exces saying that the new CBA is gonna reallly handcuff you if you try to build "superteams".
I sort of like it as it felt for a while like teams are handing max deals like Oprah handing out gifts to her audience. I think its gonna change and there will be different types of team builds some of which may be more about quality across the board while others are focused on maximizing the top 3 or so guys.
One thing will stay constant though. You will always need at least that 1 guy who is REALLY freaking good.
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Part of Washington's problem is they wouldn't tank though. They never wanted to rebuild. While there are examples on all sides I think tanking is just as valid as any strategy and they all lead to failure far more often than success. There are various other outcomes beyond Wemby, Duncan, Lebron that are really important. Cleveland gets Kyrie and Wiggins to trade for Love which helps lure Lebron home, Ant Edwards, Luka, OKC trio of KD, Harden, Russ
The alternatives in our situation aren't nearly as good as losing a lot and getting a high pick next year.
Bawse Dawg
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Can be said about any strategy