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enjoy your 5-6 more years of "decent" jazz team fighting for the 8th playoff spot.

JimLes said:
Once again, then why don't all number one picks turn out better than all number 3 picks?
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Cause those other gms are not as good as dennis Lindsey
 
JimLes said:
The draft position we're talking about is that of the Jazz this coming June. First 5-6 picks. I'm obviously not so obtuse as to suggest there's no difference between 1st and 30th. I'm asking for proof there is a significant statistical difference between picking 1st and 3rd. Or 3rd and 4th. Or 19th and 21st.
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Across the whole sample, the difference in a pick or two isn't going to be statistically (or substantively) significant (it's virtually impossible to get the statistical power you're looking for given the sample size). In some drafts, however, I'd guess there are fairly clear talent tiers, where there's a significant drop-off in expected performance from one group to the next. Posters here are concerned they'll miss out on one of Parker, Wiggins, Embiid, Randle (Exum/Smart?).

JimLes said:
We've been over this. If you want to argue further, we can, but for every LeBron or Duncan in the past 20 years, we've had a couple of Odens, Bargnanis and Kandimen.
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I'm not comfortable labeling as "duds" Anthony Davis, Kyrie Irving, Derrick Rose, Dwight Howard, Blake Griffin, Yao Ming or Allen Iverson. I agree, however, that this isn't a point worth discussing.
 
JimLes said:
How is that not happening right now? Look who the top 4 players by minutes per game are.
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Looking at usage percentage and touches/time of possession make this even more obvious. The youth, including Burks and Kanter, are being given the ball. The vets are being used in complementary roles.
 
JimLes said:
Ah, the gambler's fallacy. Everyone else is an idiot, I know what I'm doing. Everyone else picks the NCAA bracket randomly, I put in sophisticated analysis.
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Not me silly.
It might surprise you to know that im not employed by the jazz.

I was talking about dennis lindsey
 
GVC said:
Looking at usage percentage and touches/time of possession make this even more obvious. The youth, including Burks and Kanter, are being given the ball. The vets are being used in complementary roles.
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Looking at everything, it's obvious that the youth are playing enough. Even Jeremy, who's closer in age to Marvin than to any of the kids.
 
JimLes said:
Of course not, who needs numbers? We'll just take your word for it.
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How about if we just consider the top 5 picks? That's what we're looking at this year, isn't it? How much better does having a top 5 pick increase the odds of getting a better player vs. picking top 10 vs. the rest of the first round (11-30)?

From 2003-2009 (The seasons in the past 10 years that have had more than one All-Star or all NBA player drafted.)

1-5 selections = 15/35 players (42.9%) of players have played at an All-Star or All-NBA level since they were drafted.
6-10 selections = 8/35 players (22.9%) of players have played at an All-Star or All-NBA level since they were drafted.
11-30 selections = 8/140 players (05.7%) of players have played at an All-Star or All-NBA level since they were drafted.

The caliber of player going from Top 5 to Top 10 is pretty dramatic. . .

Top 5 - Lebron James (1), Dwight Howard (1), Derrick Rose (1), Blake Griffin (1), Andrew Bogut (1), Kevin Durant (2), LeMarcus Aldridge (2), Carmelo Anthony (3), Deron Williams (3), James Harden (3), Al Holford (3), Chris Paul (4), Russell Westbrook (4), Chris Bosh (4), Dwayne Wade (5), Kevin Love (5), Devin Harris (5)

Top 10 - Chris Kaman (6), Brandon Roy (6), Stephen Curry (7 not an All-Star yet, but don't see how you can't consider him at this point), Luol Deng (7), Andre Iguodala (9), Joakim Noah (9), Brook Lopez (10), Andrew Bynam (10)

And while it's possible to find an All-Star Caliber player outside of the top ten, only Roy Hibbert, Rajon Rondo and Jrue Holliday look even close to being guys that you can build around. That's three players out of 140 players selected.

The Utah Jazz started off the season as clearly the worst team in the league. Ending up with a bottom two record guarantees that they'll pick no lower than #5 in what looks to be the best draft since 2003. They still have to make the correct pick when their turn comes AND then figure out how to build a championship team around that player to keep him (something that is easier said than done - see also Cleveland/Lebron James, Orlando/Dwight Howard, New Orleans/Chris Paul, Denver/Carmelo Anthony, Utah/Deron Williams, Oklahoma City/Durant/Westbrook/Harden). The point remains, that if you don't have the pick, you don't even have a shot at drafting a player in that caliber.

A team can make a trade for a player like that IF they ever come available. . . but how many will want to play in Utah? It seems like the best chance at getting one would be to have a down year, draft one and THEN try to figure out how to keep him.
 
JimLes said:
I know who you're talking about and I have no idea why you consider him immune to draft blunders.
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There are lots of unknowns and variables, yes. But there is also countless time and money spent to help make more informed decisions on draft day. Not sure why you wouldn't want the Jazz to get the player they want most versus the player they want third most.
 
Ellis layeth the smacketh down.
 
Ellis269 said:
How about if we just consider the top 5 picks? That's what we're looking at this year, isn't it? How much better does having a top 5 pick increase the odds of getting a better player vs. picking top 10 vs. the rest of the first round (11-30)?
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If we just consider the top 5 picks, why would you look at the rest of the first round? The Jazz are not picking outside of top 10. Hell, the Jazz are likely not picking lower than 5th.
 
JimLes said:
If we just consider the top 5 picks, why would you look at the rest of the first round? The Jazz are not picking outside of top 10. Hell, the Jazz are likely not picking lower than 5th.
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And 100% no lower than 5th if they have a bottom two record. Now do you see why some people would prefer to tank?
 
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