Its Time to Tank

[Handlogten's Heros]

You don't seem to get it. At this point there is no benefit to keeping vets and trying to win games. Whether it is focusing on what type of potential our younger player have or the improvement of our draft pick the best thing for this team is to trade away the vets.

I think you get some mentoring value... but its not as critical as say getting Ochai more minutes to develop or finding time for an undrafted guy that pops. You can do some of both but I think we just added one vet too many. Now we have a big enough lead in the standing it will be hard to drop without selling off two guys.

You don't want a complete garbage situation like Philly during the process but you can still build and be respectable and land with the 5th or 6th worst record and a good shot at a difference maker.

 

[HermanG]

You don't seem to get it. At this point there is no benefit to keeping vets and trying to win games. Whether it is focusing on what type of potential our younger player have or the improvement of our draft pick the best thing for this team is to trade away the vets.

The fact that I see things differently means "I dont get it"? There is no universal truth mate, there are just different paths.

Also, where do I reject the idea of trading anyone? I'm pro trading, just not pro dumping talent just to raise picks. In fact Ive been most vocal about trading our best vet (JC), but not because I want to tank. But because I want someone who fits the system better.

 

[HermanG]

I can respect it... I just think if you take the top 5 picks each year and compare the value to the say 10-15 picks in the draft that the hit rate is likely double what the 10-15 range is. The biggest thing we need to build the franchise is talent.

I will say the 10-15 range is surprisingly fruitful. If we can acquire a pick in that range by consolidating picks I would do it.

There are so sure things and there are lots of roads to success. I think the road we are currently on could work but its also the same road that has lead to some treadmill teams. Landing a top 4 pick with the current basket of players and assets we have would propel us forward significantly imo. Not landing and AS talent in this draft will put us squarely on the treadmill imo. Can we land that with a pick in the 10-14 range? What will the other picks look like? We can kind of control one part of that equation and I still think we should manage it a little if possible.

Why do we have to land AS talent in the draft? Why cant we use the assets we got to get one?

We have a borderline top 20 guy whose ceiling we dont know yet. What if we find a guy next to him by using our assets?

Then few targeted pucks and trades to round out the roster and boom, we might be a real competitor in a two years.

If we dump talent and record, we wont be able to trade for those guys.. or sign them drom FA. They refuse to come.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Why do we have to land AS talent in the draft? Why cant we use the assets we got to get one?

We have a borderline top 20 guy whose ceiling we dont know yet. What if we find a guy next to him by using our assets?

Then few targeted pucks and trades to round out the roster and boom, we might be a real competitor in a two years.

If we dump talent and record, we wont be able to trade for those guys.. or sign them drom FA. They refuse to come.

Having one good half-season does not make you borderline top 20. I would say Lauri has top 30 potential, and right now he's probably like borderline top 35.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

The best argument for not tanking and actually adding talent is that the West is wide open and you could maybe luck your way into the Conference Finals before getting beat.

 

[HermanG]

Having one good half-season does not make you borderline top 20. I would say Lauri has top 30 potential, and right now he's probably like borderline top 35.

Fair enough. His potential is borderline top 20 would have been a better way to phrase it. Some analysts just love him and call him a definite all star... which is a testament to how far he has come this year. Guys in ESPN especially seem to like him.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Why do we have to land AS talent in the draft? Why cant we use the assets we got to get one?

We have a borderline top 20 guy whose ceiling we dont know yet. What if we find a guy next to him by using our assets?

Then few targeted pucks and trades to round out the roster and boom, we might be a real competitor in a two years.

If we dump talent and record, we wont be able to trade for those guys.. or sign them drom FA. They refuse to come.

Because trading for those guys costs 3-4 picks... spending those picks on a player in a trade means we lower the ceiling on this rebuild. Pairing Lauri, who is a borderline all-star, with another all star is the key to making a fast rebuild. We don't have a pick next year, so you kinda need to nab the guy now while Lauri is ready to go.

Like teams don't sell off young players with star potential for a few picks. You really need to draft those guys. Those picks we got in the Rudy/Don trades are nice but likely not going to help build something around Lauri.

In a year or two you likely need to replace Mike and KO as they age out... you can use picks to get starter level guys in their tier... but the high level talent almost certainly will come through the draft. The NBA is so talented now you have to hit on multiple fronts, FA, trade, and the draft... the higher you draft the better your chances are at landing high level talent.

 

[Jaanipoeg]

I think people especially love Lauri's story. Still, his start has been incredible but 26 games is not a lot to go off of to start putting someone in the upper echelons.

I will say that Lauri is the absolute perfect piece that championship teams look for. Obviously he has a lot to prove to be compared, but he has that Klay typeset where he is an elite shot finisher that can exist within an offense without demanding high usage and isolation, while still being a strong defender. I still think we need a top tier player, likely from the draft in the 2 seasons, to really compete, but I think Lauri would be a strong Middleton/Klay archetype on an elite team

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

The best argument for not tanking and actually adding talent is that the West is wide open and you could maybe luck your way into the Conference Finals before getting beat.

I don't think that is the best argument. A one-year run would be fun but hollow. I think the non-tank argument rests on the fact that some team may sell off something that helps us now and in the future for semi-cheap. Kuzma, Collins, or something like that comes cheap. Basically being opportunistic.

 

[Tremendous Upside]

I don't think that is the best argument. A one-year run would be fun but hollow.

I dunno. I kinda like fun but hollow things.

Don't knock them 'til you try them.

 

[Elizah Huge]

I think people especially love Lauri's story. Still, his start has been incredible but 26 games is not a lot to go off of to start putting someone in the upper echelons.

I will say that Lauri is the absolute perfect piece that championship teams look for. Obviously he has a lot to prove to be compared, but he has that Klay typeset where he is an elite shot finisher that can exist within an offense without demanding high usage and isolation, while still being a strong defender. I still think we need a top tier player, likely from the draft in the 2 seasons, to really compete, but I think Lauri would be a strong Middleton/Klay archetype on an elite team

I think Lauri could absolutely be a #2 option on a championship team.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

I don't think that is the best argument. A one-year run would be fun but hollow. I think the non-tank argument rests on the fact that some team may sell off something that helps us now and in the future for semi-cheap. Kuzma, Collins, or something like that comes cheap. Basically being opportunistic.

I mean, if you got Derozan it wouldn't just be a 1 year run. It'd be a longer-term success move than Kuzma, a guy you might have to max out to keep out of LA (I wouldnt want to give Kuzma the max personally)

 

[Jaanipoeg]

I don't think that is the best argument. A one-year run would be fun but hollow. I think the non-tank argument rests on the fact that some team may sell off something that helps us now and in the future for semi-cheap. Kuzma, Collins, or something like that comes cheap. Basically being opportunistic.

I know that GMs and execs are way smarter and informed than me (besides Billy King), but a Collins trade seems so perfect. A seemingly misused player on a one-dimensional team (that is in cap hell), that is only 25, locked up for a couple years (with some cap jumps coming in 23-24 and beyond), who is also a solid defending stretch-4.

****, I have no clue how much they value him at this point, but if we could get him for 2 of Clarkson, Olynyk, and Beasley (and maybe some seconds), I would do it in a heartbeat.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

I mean, if you got Derozan it wouldn't just be a 1 year run. It'd be a longer-term success move than Kuzma, a guy you might have to max out to keep out of LA (I wouldnt want to give Kuzma the max personally)

LA doesn't have max space but I get it. I am not advocating for that move... simply listing it. I would be a little iffy on giving Kuzma 25M/year plus.

About the only win-now moves I'd do would be like if OG Anunoby suddenly is available for a couple picks (extreme wishful thinking I know). Kind of an opportunistic move like Cleveland did with Jarret Allen a couple years ago. There is a good young player in a bigger trade and you swoop in and provide a pick or two and make the deal work. I listed OG and I don't think he's available... I don't see the guy out there yet... so it would likely be something somewhat out of left field.

 

[Tremendous Upside]

if we could get him for 2 of Clarkson, Olynyk, and Beasley (and maybe some seconds), I would do it in a heartbeat.

That's crazy.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

I dunno. I kinda like fun but follow things.

Don't knock them 'til you try them.

Bruh I hit @Hearsky 's mom up like every other week. I have a lot of experience there.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

I know that GMs and execs are way smarter and informed than me (besides Billy King), but a Collins trade seems so perfect. A seemingly misused player on a one-dimensional team (that is in cap hell), that is only 25, locked up for a couple years (with some cap jumps coming in 23-24 and beyond), who is also a solid defending stretch-4.

****, I have no clue how much they value him at this point, but if we could get him for 2 of Clarkson, Olynyk, and Beasley (and maybe some seconds), I would do it in a heartbeat.

I think the idea of John Collins is better than the player John Collins... but I am definitely curious. I think Beasley/Vando or Beasley/KO is what I would center the offer on. I don't think there is a lot of better offers if you consider Atlanta's goals in clearing some cap room and staying competitive.

 

[Jaanipoeg]

I think the idea of John Collins is better than the player John Collins... but I am definitely curious. I think Beasley/Vando or Beasley/KO is what I would center the offer on. I don't think there is a lot of better offers if you consider Atlanta's goals in clearing some cap room and staying competitive.

That's definitely fair with the idea of JC being better than the product, and why the option would be open. I do remember saying the same thing about Lauri to a friend when we got him (a 7' wing who can shoot 3's reliably), so I think my optimism comes from not trusting a player's production when they are slotted next to Trae.

I agree that I don't think they'd get many offers. I was thinking Clarkson might be valuable to them since he will definitely be opting out of a player option for next season, and could provide some shooting and flexibility. I have always been higher on Vando than most here, but I'd consider moving him for JC

 

[Elizah Huge]

Which premium pick would you be willing to give up for Kuzma with THT if he agreed to sign an extension here at around 20-25M per year?

 

[seattlejazzfan]

I think the idea of John Collins is better than the player John Collins... but I am definitely curious. I think Beasley/Vando or Beasley/KO is what I would center the offer on. I don't think there is a lot of better offers if you consider Atlanta's goals in clearing some cap room and staying competitive.

i don't know if collins is a winning player, but i do know he'd be fun to have on the jazz.