Its Time to Tank

[fishonjazz]

Im totally pulling this out of my *** but I think Lauri has been so unexpectedly amazing (like top 10 player level amazing) that his unexpectedly amazing play accounts for 10 wins by itself. I think if we got Cleveland level Lauri then our record would be something like 21-42. That would make us 5th worst in the league and really really close to 4th worst.

 

[sip]

Im totally pulling this out of my *** but I think Lauri has been so unexpectedly amazing (like top 10 player level amazing) that his unexpectedly amazing play accounts for 10 wins by itself. I think if we got Cleveland level Lauri then our record would be something like 21-42. That would make us 5th worst in the league and really really close to 4th worst.

I don't think there is any doubt that Lauri's exceptional play has led to at least 10 wins. Particularly when we have had such a large amount of close wins.

 

[fishonjazz]

Besides Lauris explosion we have Kessler.
Im always hearing that tanking is a bad idea because rookies dont help much and take a long time to eventually help a team. This is also why tanking/rebuilds take forever to get out of. Yet here we have Kessler, an after thought late first round pick throw in part of the trade, playing like a 30 million a year 2 time all star, 2 time all nba, 3 time defensive player of the year. As a rookie. I dont think anyone saw that coming. I also expected conley to miss more games due to injury and Clarkson to struggle more as a starter.

So many pleasant (or unpleasant depending on the person) surprises from this team.

 

[Korisfani]

Well, the 538 WAR stat says about 7 wins above replacement. And some of the post-deadline games have been clearly down to Lauri. For example take out Lauri's 43 from the OKC game and replace them with Rudy Gay minutes and that's always a loss. So, maybe 8-9 less wins are more losses is reasonable.

 

[HermanG]

Im totally pulling this out of my *** but I think Lauri has been so unexpectedly amazing (like top 10 player level amazing) that his unexpectedly amazing play accounts for 10 wins by itself. I think if we got Cleveland level Lauri then our record would be something like 21-42. That would make us 5th worst in the league and really really close to 4th worst.

Lauri total win shares are 7.7 according to basketball reference. That is 10th in the league which is amazing considering how many more wins some of the teams got.

Besides Lauris explosion we have Kessler.

.... aaaaaand Kessler is at 5.4 which ranks tied 36th with Kyrie just behind Ja (5.5) and Steph (5.5)

WS/48 Kessler is 15th and Lauri is 20th.

 

[The Midnight]

I mean we traded 3 starters and 1 rotational player and a draft pick for a draft pick.

That is one of the tankiest trades i have ever seen.

Yeah I’m still confused as to why many here are still saying we’re not tanking.. lol.. DA has been and continued to be in tank mode (as evidenced by the latest trade).

Hardy has been told and continued to coach hard.

Players have played their hearts out.

But DA’s moves have consistently been to not make us good this year.

 

[Thee Idiotic Minivan K]

Still don''t think we are tanking. Just probably not good enough in a tough conference.

This is classic case of denial. Yes, this team isn’t good enough then they made a trade to get even worse when they are within reach of a 4 seed. If that’s not tanking I don’t know what is.

I don't think anyone is claiming that the deadline deal didn't make the team much less likely to win games. Whether the main purpose of that deal was to get the LAL pick and cap room OR to lose this season, that's debatable (and has been done so...).

Lol that’s proving my point. Teams not tanking are going to get worse for a pick 4 years from now. That’s what ranking front offices do. Lol

But for Andy Larsen to say that Dok's minutes, lack of timeouts or whatever small decisions Hardy made last night was proof that he just suddenly started tanking in game 63 of the season is pretty wild in my mind. That just doesn't make sense on any level.

It’s bad business for coaches and players to tank for an entire season. That lightens the owners pockets because fans aren’t interested in watching that brand of ball. Coaches don’t tank orgs do though and that’s what’s happening here.

 

[HermanG]

Yeah I’m still confused as to why many here are still saying we’re not tanking.. lol.. DA has been and continued to be in tank mode (as evidenced by the latest trade).

Hardy has been told and continued to coach hard.

Players have played their hearts out.

But DA’s moves have consistently been to not make us good this year.

I know you likely havent read all threads... but its about definition of the term. I will summarize it the best way I can.

Some (like your argument) make it sound like every move is either win now or tanking and there is nothing in between.. just shades of tanking
Others (like me) use the term tanking only when you are building a team that is bad by design in some way and you prioritize your own draft pick over other things

No one has argued that summer trades or the LA trade was a win now move. But the argument has been if DA has done enough to call it tanking or not.

The most important evidence (being our record) suggests no. DA has also denied it. Hardy has denied it, and locker room narrative is "fighting the tank noise" which suggests its only coming from the outside
On the other hand, we are gutted on the depth right now so there is a case to be made in favor of tanking. Also Lauri being "surprisingly good" and that messing up the tank is also a valid point.

But essentially we all know the team is not as good as last years edition... but on the other hand 15 draft picks, 5 swap rights and potentially 60M of cap space say that we can catch that gap the minute we choose to do so.

 

[fishonjazz]

I know you likely havent read all threads... but its about definition of the term. I will summarize it the best way I can.

Some (like your argument) make it sound like every move is either win now or tanking and there is nothing in between.. just shades of tanking
Others (like me) use the term tanking only when you are building a team that is bad by design in some way and you prioritize your own draft pick over other things

No one has argued that summer trades or the LA trade was a win now move. But the argument has been if DA has done enough to call it tanking or not.

The most important evidence (being our record) suggests no. DA has also denied it. Hardy has denied it, and locker room narrative is "fighting the tank noise" which suggests its only coming from the outside
On the other hand, we are gutted on the depth right now so there is a case to be made in favor of tanking. Also Lauri being "surprisingly good" and that messing up the tank is also a valid point.

But essentially we all know the team is not as good as last years edition... but on the other hand 15 draft picks, 5 swap rights and potentially 60M of cap space say that we can catch that gap the minute we choose to do so.

Great post. I think its about perfect

 

[HermanG]

Great post. I think its about perfect

Thanks. I think its funny the debate rages on despite the fact that its a question of terminology.

I dont think anyone thinks we are actually trying to win anything significant right now. I'm sure those options were on the table up until late January when they likely decided that the best course is to prepare for the offseason, incease assets and maximize cap space. Only question really is will the FO intervene if we play too well down the stretch.

That is when I will also admit the tank is on.

 

[Agent#00]

DA is the Jedi Meister. He tells you we are trying to win but secretly execute the tank button.

 

[homeytennis]

Juancho is available. The Raptors waived him yesterday. Perhaps he and Quin can reunite.

 

[The Midnight]

I know you likely havent read all threads... but its about definition of the term. I will summarize it the best way I can.

Some (like your argument) make it sound like every move is either win now or tanking and there is nothing in between.. just shades of tanking
Others (like me) use the term tanking only when you are building a team that is bad by design in some way and you prioritize your own draft pick over other things

No one has argued that summer trades or the LA trade was a win now move. But the argument has been if DA has done enough to call it tanking or not.

The most important evidence (being our record) suggests no. DA has also denied it. Hardy has denied it, and locker room narrative is "fighting the tank noise" which suggests its only coming from the outside
On the other hand, we are gutted on the depth right now so there is a case to be made in favor of tanking. Also Lauri being "surprisingly good" and that messing up the tank is also a valid point.

But essentially we all know the team is not as good as last years edition... but on the other hand 15 draft picks, 5 swap rights and potentially 60M of cap space say that we can catch that gap the minute we choose to do so.

I think this is more likely the case…

DA is the Jedi Meister. He tells you we are trying to win but secretly execute the tank button.

I just don’t think you can look to DA or Hardy denying the tank and just say we’re not tanking..

I think it’s safe to assume DA is always playing poker at this point..

 

[The Midnight]

Also Locke had just put out a vid saying exactly this,, that we’re not tanking cos DA had consistently ‘said’ we’re not tanking.. no no no.. we’re not tanking.. no way Nooooooo.,. Etc..

My default position is to believe the opposite of what Locke says ..

 

[The Midnight]

Also I saw Johnny Juzang played today for the first time since forever…

He played 15 minutes amidst the playoff “hunt” .., I mean.. c’mon now.. lol..

 

[The Midnight]

Here’s Locke trying to say we’re NOT tanking (from 13 min mark)

My eyes kept rolling back.. it went the full 180 when he was done.


View: https://youtu.be/Jg5KWsxzCM0

 

[The Midnight]

Locke’s reasoning for the Jazz playing Juzang, Dok., was to find out what they could do.. but you just don’t do that if you’re fighting for playoffs spot and guaranteed seeding.

 

[Korisfani]

Also I saw Johnny Juzang played today for the first time since forever…

He played 15 minutes amidst the playoff “hunt” .., I mean.. c’mon now.. lol..

If pretty much any team in the league was suddenly without 3 of their top guards, there would be "someguy" playing 15 minutes.

 

[The Midnight]

If pretty much any team in the league was suddenly without 3 of their top guards, there would be "someguy" playing 15 minutes.

Yeah but WHY are we without all the guards... Conley? Beasely?

 

[Korisfani]

Yeah but WHY are we without all the guards... Conley? Beasely?

Because the Lakers and Wolves were desperate.