Jazz trade Devin Harris to Atlanta for Marvin Williams (merged)

[carolinajazz]

I'm not going to look it up right now (on my phone), but the Hawks have to be one of the worst assisting teams in the league. Surely, that has to be taken into account for Marv's putrid assist numbers.

.....I would have thought the same thing. But even though they were 8th in team assists.....here's how they get most of them: the point guard, who really wants to be a shooting guard, tries to create a shot for himself, jumps up into the air, has no shot, so then passes the ball to a fortunate teammate who just happens to be open, and hits the shot. It counts as an assist, but is really a pathetic play!

 

[freakazoid]

Landry Fields just signed a 3 year 20 million dollar deal. Please tell me again why Marvin is not morth 7 million again? Anyone..anyone?

Why don't you ask some Hawks fans?

 

[billyshelby]

My memory of Atlanta was not the reputation they have for Iso players. I'm not sure what they run exactly, but their bread and butter was posting Johnson. Johnson is a fabulous passer out of the post, and they would cut just as fabulously from the high block. Even when either Smith or Horford got the pass, they are also great passers. So it's not hard to see how they were actually a great assist team.

 

[Karadrys30]

This may be wishful thinking, but Im getting the feeling Marvin could be like Harpring when he first came to utah. Yes he wasnt amazing but he played solid D and had a good midrange jumper. Now Marvin can shoot better from outside and is more athletic so those are pluses. I dont know if he has the "piss other players off" factor that Harp was so good at.

If Marvin can hit the curl J then it would free White boy up to shoot the 3. Think Brewer who can shoot. We may also see him as a backup sf for millsap. Interesting things to watch in jazz land right now.

 

[NAOS]

My memory of Atlanta was not the reputation they have for Iso players. I'm not sure what they run exactly, but their bread and butter was posting Johnson. Johnson is a fabulous passer out of the post, and they would cut just as fabulously from the high block. Even when either Smith or Horford got the pass, they are also great passers. So it's not hard to see how they were actually a great assist team.

These numbers don't suggest that Williams was much of a beneficiary of that system (since setting up a post, making a cut, and hitting a shot takes a certain amount of time).

https://www.82games.com/1112/11ATL10.HTM

Change his shot selection and usage rate and you could easily be looking at 13 and 5 with solid defense.

 

[Fishsticks]

Why don't you ask some Hawks fans?

Why? Probably the most uninformed disinterested fans in the league. You should know this Matthew. Try again.

 

[billyshelby]

These numbers don't suggest that Williams was much of a beneficiary of that system (since setting up a post, making a cut, and hitting a shot takes a certain amount of time).

https://www.82games.com/1112/11ATL10.HTM

Change his shot selection and usage rate and you could easily be looking at 13 and 5 with solid defense.

This is what is crazy about thinking Marvin Williams is going to improve: it's not the years, it's the minutes. The guy has averaged 30 minutes for the entire 7 years he's been in the league. And his numbers are flat. I don't care how misused he was, he's not going to change greatly. And it would be shocking, at least from a statistical standpoint, if he didn't regress as a 3 point shooter while improving his overall FG% from last year's stats.

 

[The Midnight]

This is what is crazy about thinking Marvin Williams is going to improve: it's not the years, it's the minutes. The guy has averaged 30 minutes for the entire 7 years he's been in the league. And his numbers are flat. I don't care how misused he was, he's not going to change greatly. And it would be shocking, at least from a statistical standpoint, if he didn't regress as a 3 point shooter while improving his overall FG% from last year's stats.

I think your argument has always been that '13 cap space right? I think Locke said this yesterday - we'll still have about $23m to spend next year regardless.

So unless KOC is planning to sign x2 max players - I would have thought $23m would be plenty?

(It's hard enough imagining x1 max free agent signing with us let alone x2)

 

[billyshelby]

I think your argument has always been that '13 cap space right? I think Locke said this yesterday - we'll still have about $23m to spend next year regardless.

So unless KOC is planning to sign x2 max players - I would have thought $23m would be plenty?

(It's hard enough imagining x1 max free agent signing with us let alone x2)

Cap space is so much more than being able to sign high dollar players. You're missing most of the story.

 

[The Midnight]

Cap space is so much more than being able to sign high dollar players. You're missing most of the story.

It then comes down to - does KOC see Marvin as part of our mid/long term plan in making this trade?

And looking at this you'd think that the answer to that is "Yes".

 

[billyshelby]

It then comes down to - does KOC see Marvin as part of our mid/long term plan in making this trade?

And looking at this you'd think that the answer to that is "Yes".

A fair point, but an absurd gamble. KOC would be betting that Williams will be so valuable after 2 years that having his Bird Rights would be worth sacrificing the 7.5 next year to give us leverage in resigning him. The chances of Williams being more than an MLE player are minimal at best, so accepting his 7.5 in year 2 falls into the category of "Hey, we've still got 32 million so what's the worry?" I'm not in that camp.

 

[The Midnight]

A fair point, but an absurd gamble. KOC would be betting that Williams will be so valuable after 2 years that having his Bird Rights would be worth sacrificing the 7.5 next year to give us leverage in resigning him. The chances of Williams being more than an MLE player are minimal at best, so accepting his 7.5 in year 2 falls into the category of "Hey, we've still got 32 million so what's the worry?" I'm not in that camp.

OK fair point.

Another angle to consider as well is this. So far we've looked at this as a Harris / Marvin straight swap, with us having to potentially pay for Marvin for 1 more year ($7.5m in year 2). And that makes it a bad trade - assuming Harris & Marvin have the same value.

But may be what KOC sees is that Marvin is worth much more to Jazz than Harris (basketball wise, fit, needs, etc). Which means we can't look at that extra year in isolation. We have to also consider the fact that Marvin is going to be so valuable to us as a player in 2012 - which helps to justify any shortcomings.

Also I think KOC is looking to see improvements from Marvin (with our coaching, our system, etc) that he'll be worth $7.5m in '13. If that's his estimation, then I don't think we have enough info to argue with that.

 

[vj_74]

.

Also I think KOC is looking to see improvements from Marvin (with our coaching, our system, etc) that he'll be worth $7.5m in '13. If that's his estimation, then I don't think we have enough info to argue with that.

This is the same KOC who also thought Raja Bell would give us Bruce Bowen-type years. This is also the same KOC who kept Miles around for too long. So we'll see if he is right on Marv. Cant assume that he has got this down right. It is still a gamble, albeit a slightly less expensive one.

 

[Lion's Roar]

Cap space is not going to be to sign FA's. The cap space will be to add a few draft picks if possible while preserving the most of it to sign the young kids. To add a few draft picks the Jazz need cap space to take back a bad contract or two. For that you don't need $32M in cap space. Besides the true need for cap space is in two years time and not next year so Marvin's contract expires just in time.

Last night I remembered that Marvin adds a new wrinkle to the Jazz defensive sets. Atlanta used to shift assignments on every screen a lot didn't they? With long athletic players all over the board the Jazz may consider that as well. May not be something they use all the time but it's nice to have that extra asset on the defensive end of the floor.

 

[One Brow]

This may be wishful thinking, but Im getting the feeling Marvin could be like Harpring when he first came to utah. Yes he wasnt amazing but he played solid D and had a good midrange jumper. Now Marvin can shoot better from outside and is more athletic so those are pluses.

When Harpring first arrived, IIRC, he was in the "180" club (180 < sum of FG%, 3P%, and FT%). Is Marvin Willimas better than that?

 

[carolinajazz]

This may be wishful thinking, but Im getting the feeling Marvin could be like Harpring when he first came to utah. Yes he wasnt amazing but he played solid D and had a good midrange jumper. Now Marvin can shoot better from outside and is more athletic so those are pluses. I dont know if he has the "piss other players off" factor that Harp was so good at.

If Marvin can hit the curl J then it would free White boy up to shoot the 3. Think Brewer who can shoot. We may also see him as a backup sf for millsap. Interesting things to watch in jazz land right now.

...well, one things for sure, or actually two things: he's going to get more touches and get more shots with our system than he got with the Hawks!

 

[Karadrys30]

When Harpring first arrived, IIRC, he was in the "180" club (180 < sum of FG%, 3P%, and FT%). Is Marvin Willimas better than that?

To be honest I dont know that much about Williams. Sorry the Hawks game was not interesting to me (too many chuckers). I just remember that harpring was not highly valued until he came to utah. He fit well with the system and the players they had at the time. I dont know if Marv has the motor that harp came in with. If he does he would make a solid starter or exceptional man off the bench.

 

[Stifle Tower]

When Harpring first arrived, IIRC, he was in the "180" club (180 < sum of FG%, 3P%, and FT%). Is Marvin Willimas better than that?

That would be a pretty elite club. You'd need 90% FT's, 50% FG's and 40% 3-PT FG's. Not too many players hit 50% of their FG's outside of bigs who are always around the bucket. Adn the list of guys who shoot 40% from 3-PT range and hit 90% of their FT's is also pretty small. I would think only a couple of guys with meaningful FG and FT attempts finish at the 180 mark each season).

Matt's year in Philly prior to the trade, he shot 46%, 30%, 74%. Matt's 1st year in Utah, his best percentage-wise, was 51%, 41%, 79%. So not quite that elite "180" club, but close. Surprisingly, Stockton never accomplished that feat. He came close a couple a couple of times, but despite having great FG and 3-PT percentages, he was never elite from the FT line, with only an 82% career average. I figured Hornacek was the best bet to do it amongst Jazz players since he was one of the best FT shooters in the league. And I was right. His CAREER averages are 49.6%, 40.3%, 87.7% and he hit that 180-combined mark in several seasons.

For a SF, I'd say 45% FG, 35% 3-PT and 80% FT's is a pretty good target. And that's about right where Marvin's career averages sit (3-PT avg is a bit below, but he's shown good improvement over the past 3 years). Then throw in the fact he's known as a decent defender.

 

[theNBAnerd]

i still don't understand the assumption that marvin will get more shots with the jazz. the way i see it, in the halfcourt he's going to be a fifth option behind mo, hayward and whichever two of jefferson/sap/fave are still around in november and starting.

now, in the open court, he could be fun to watch. he and hayward running the wings on a 3-on-2 presents some possibilities. too bad we no longer have a real point guard to get them the ball.

 

[NAOS]

i still don't understand the assumption that marvin will get more shots with the jazz. the way i see it, in the halfcourt he's going to be a fifth option behind mo, hayward and whichever two of jefferson/sap/fave are still around in november and starting.

now, in the open court, he could be fun to watch. he and hayward running the wings on a 3-on-2 presents some possibilities. too bad we no longer have a real point guard to get them the ball.

I've never made an argument that he'll get more shots.
I think we can positively change the way he takes and makes his shots.
He could take the same number and get to 13ppg. IMO.