john stockton speaks out against the covid policies

[silesian]

That is not what herd immunity is. It does not remove the disease from the population, it just limits its spread to the point where it doesn't have a high likelihood of spreading to the group herd. The term was coined from during a cow early fetus death problem, and at some point was related to the human population. Measles, which has been considered "eradicated" still has 1000+ cases each year due to people refusing to vaccinate. The other issue is often like-minded people (anti-vaxxers for example) will go to the same churches, etc., so even if the population in general is largely immune, there can still be a spread.

For many years, adults had herd immunity from being exposed to diseases that childen could still get.

Chicken pox is a good example of a virus that we as a population had herd immunity to prior to vaccination. That doesn't mean people still couldn't get it that never had it, but the likelihood was low. The more contagious a virus is, the more people will need to have had it (vaccines not withstanding) in order to achieve herd immunity. Interestingly, since the chicken pox vaccine is relatively new, we still don't know if those that received the vaccine will still be subject to getting shingles.

Many highly contagious viruses, especially those susceptible to mutation, never allow us to truly get to herd immunity (think influenza). The flu kills on average 0.5% of the population. That number would be higher without a flu shot. That is probably where we'll end up with for Corona. Without the vaccine the large majority of the population will need to get it to have any sort of herd immunity. Thankfully there is a vaccine. Hopefully it can be distributed fast enough to slow down mutations that are resistant to the vaccine.

Thank you, well done, you saved me some typing!

 

[silesian]

You may want to recheck your number in the final paragraph. 0.5% of the US population would be in the neighborhood of 1.6 million. It looks like it averages around 0.01% of the US population. Unless you were talking about the world population.

I interpreted this to be the percentage of the infected population. This would exclude the vaccinated and those not exposed from the denominator.

 

[One Brow]

I know some moms who have held parties to effectively distribute measles to kids so that they wouldn't get serious effects in later life if they got it later.

Pretty close to the idea of "herd immunity" locally at least, if you ask me, considering those parties, speaking as a cowboy, it impressively measures up to being a "herd"..

You seem to be confusing "herd" and "personal" here. That why such parties were performed every few years.

Somehow, the pharma companies are not required to make all those disclosures as a matter of public policy favoring mass vaccinations. Probably, public policy here reflects some big money lobbyists leaning over the desks of politicians and bureaucrats.

Every shot I have received recently, or that my kids had, came with a sheet or two of paper, including such disclosures.

And then our legislators give the pharma companies and care providers protection from being sued.

The existence of the NVIC does not stop you from suing in other courts. It's just easier for the patient to win in the NVIC.

... perhaps the government should create an insurance pool by applying a fee to manufacturers and providers, and require tracking patients' later health.

They are actually doing this with the covid19 vaccine, and did this previously with the currently more established vaccines.

 

[One Brow]

You simply live in denial of the possibilities of people having good sense. Without all the indoctrination and authoritarian edicts.

You simply live in the denial of the difference between expertise and indoctrination.

 

[One Brow]

I acknowledge that I over-stated what the effects of herd immunity would be.

Chicken pox is a good example of a virus that we as a population had herd immunity to prior to vaccination. That doesn't mean people still couldn't get it that never had it, but the likelihood was low. The more contagious a virus is, the more people will need to have had it (vaccines not withstanding) in order to achieve herd immunity. Interestingly, since the chicken pox vaccine is relatively new, we still don't know if those that received the vaccine will still be subject to getting shingles.

Successes and challenges in varicella vaccine - PMC

Varicella is a highly contagious disease caused by primary infection with varicella zoster virus (VZV). VZV infection, as well as varicella vaccination, induces VZV-specific antibody and T-cell-mediated immunity, essential for recovery. The immune ...

www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

Incidence​

Chickenpox is a very common disease with estimated 60 million new cases annually worldwide [Plotkin et al. 1985]. In the USA, in the pre-vaccine era, 4 million cases occurred annually (15–16/100,000) with the birth rate adding up to the same number [Marin et al. 2007]. In Germany, with an annual birth cohort of 800,000, new varicella cases reached 760,000 cases/year [Wagenpfeil et al. 2004].

Perhaps I'm misreading that, but it reads as if just about every single child got chicken pox in the pre-vaccine era. I don't see how that squares with any interpretation of herd immunity, which is supposed to protect members of the herd that have not been infected or vaccinated.

 

[One Brow]

You may want to recheck your number in the final paragraph. 0.5% of the US population would be in the neighborhood of 1.6 million. It looks like it averages around 0.01% of the US population. Unless you were talking about the world population.

I believe the 0.5% is the fraction of the people who actually get sick with the flu that are killed by it.

 

[One Brow]

What the hell does John being white (or even older for that matter) have to do with anything?

It's a cultural thing. You might not understand it. We were taught that our opinions were almost always right, by virtue of having them.

Everyone should remember that you are a complete idiot and anything you say should be either ignored or jeered at.

Feel free to ignore or jeer, then.

 

[sirkickyass]

Well. That's massively disappointing. There goes my childhood.

 

[One Brow]

You are conflating the occurrence of natural herd immunity (which occurs all the time) with the total eradication of the disease from natural herd immunity.

Yes, I was, and wrongly so. Thank you for the correction.

I’m not going to debate you on the well known scientific fact that natural herd immunity happens without vaccines. It is discussed widely in peer-reviewed scientific papers.

OK.

Regarding your categorical statement that there was "never" measles herd immunity for measles, the 1930s natural herd immunity is well documented in the scientific literature. One example

In that particular paper, the only reference to the 1930s is to a paper by Hedrichs, who said that epidemics in Baltimore seemed to be halted when the infection rate climbed above 53%.

Also, looking at Figure 1 of that paper, I'm puzzled as to why the 1930s would be singled out as having had herd immunity, as opposed to say 1922 or 1945. It looks like a pretty random pattern of rising and falling to me, although of course I don't know the details.

 

[fishonjazz]

Didn't know where to put this so I will just throw it in here.

Karl Rove calls QAnon follower Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene 'a problem for our party'

Rove unloads as he joins Mitch McConnell in his condemnation of embattled GOP Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene.

www.yahoo.com

Republicans actually voted this crazy person into Congress? Wtf?
She actually believes that jews used a space laser that they control to start the wildfires that raged in california in 2018 so that they could then make a high speed rail.

Read that again. She was voted into Congress.
And there is so much more crazy coming from her as well. Maybe babe is actually marjorie taylor greene?

Sent from my ONEPLUS A6013 using JazzFanz mobile app

 

[One Brow]

Didn't know where to put this so I will just throw it in here.

Karl Rove calls QAnon follower Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene 'a problem for our party'

Rove unloads as he joins Mitch McConnell in his condemnation of embattled GOP Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene.

www.yahoo.com

Republicans actually voted this crazy person into Congress? Wtf?
She actually believes that jews used a space laser that they control to start the wildfires that raged in california in 2018 so that they could then make a high speed rail.

She has never said it was Jewish people. What she says about space lasers is silly and stupid enough, no need to embellish it.

Read that again. She was voted into Congress.
And there is so much more crazy coming from her as well. Maybe babe is actually marjorie taylor greene?

 

[TheGoldStandard]

I acknowledge that I over-stated what the effects of herd immunity would be.

Successes and challenges in varicella vaccine - PMC

Varicella is a highly contagious disease caused by primary infection with varicella zoster virus (VZV). VZV infection, as well as varicella vaccination, induces VZV-specific antibody and T-cell-mediated immunity, essential for recovery. The immune ...

www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

Perhaps I'm misreading that, but it reads as if just about every single child got chicken pox in the pre-vaccine era. I don't see how that squares with any interpretation of herd immunity, which is supposed to protect members of the herd that have not been infected or vaccinated.

Again, the % of population that must have antibodies for herd immunity is based on how contagious the virus is. Even with the vaccine, we still have 149 chickenpox related deaths in the U.S., but we are considered to have herd immunity. It is unclear if we can get to herd immunity with Covid-19. My guess is without a vaccine, it would take years with the way the virus is mutating (which contrary to alarming articles, the medical community expected it). This is another reason to distance, wear masks and be safe. A virus cannot mutate if it does not spread. The more it spreads, the more it mutates.

Since children are less susceptible to complications with chickenpox, we have all heard of the chickenpox parties to get it out of the way. Still, many adults have never had it, but since most of us have, the odds of adults getting it (even before the vaccine) through a community spread were very low. Since chicken pox is highly contagious, it takes most of us having had it to achieve herd immunity. 95% of the population has either had Chickenpox or the vaccine.

One of the problems with herd immunity, is you have to account for pockets of people that generally don't get exposed, either to being remote, or just the way they receive information and act socially. Even with general herd immunity, these pockets of people are still susceptible to an outbreak, even though the community at large is not.

Again, herd immunity does not mean eradication of disease, it just removes a high likelihood of uncontrolled community spread.