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The Non-Jazz NBA Thread in the Jazz Section

Handlogten's Heros said:
I think the season gonna get paused at some point... Bulls without like 10 guys... Lakers cancel practice today... Nets dropping like flies. I am not saying postponed, but a postponement for a few teams or a league wide break after Christmas seems possible. So many Covid cases.
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The difference this time around is that the league doesn't think Covid is that dangerous. Whereas, before a lot was unknown.
 
Nate505 said:
Guess what everyone!

The Knicks lost again!!!!


charlton-heston-laughing.gif
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Poor Melo the Jazz Killer. Should we buy flowers for him?
 
Someone explain to me why neither of 538’s two models like the Warriors. Currently we’re at 23% to win it all over the player-based forecast, just under 24% for the Bucks who are the highest. The Warriors are at 4%. Also the Suns at only 14%. Elo forecast has us at 24%, Phoenix at 21%, GSW at 16% and Bucks a huge drop to 10%. I get the whole scheduling thing and whatever, but we’re a quarter of the way through the season.
 
infection said:
Someone explain to me why neither of 538’s two models like the Warriors. Currently we’re at 23% to win it all over the player-based forecast, just under 24% for the Bucks who are the highest. The Warriors are at 4%. Also the Suns at only 14%. Elo forecast has us at 24%, Phoenix at 21%, GSW at 16% and Bucks a huge drop to 10%. I get the whole scheduling thing and whatever, but we’re a quarter of the way through the season.
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It's because almost every player Warriors player is playing at a significantly higher level (in terms of Raptor) than they were last year. Their projection doesaccount for what's happened this year, but it's still anchored down by what happened last year. Over time, previous performance will account less and current season performance will count for more. This is why the model is high on the Jazz and Bucks. They've been playing at a championship level (during the RS) already.

A good way to gauge this is by looking at their individual players current and projected RAPTOR rating. You can see how the model is assigning "credit" to their success and what it thinks about that rating going forward. The model is also assuming significant playoff minutes for both Klay and Wiseman, both who are negative but especially Wiseman.
 
538’s model is both very good and very bad depending on how you look at it. For distant goals like the Championship, it’s not going to be great. To be clear, most most models are not great doing this. There’s so much that goes into predicting the championship that can throw things off. Even if they predict the relative strength of each player well, predicting the minutes could be off or vice versus. Compared to your other models it stands its group just fine, however. It’s really just different ways of doing the same thing.

What makes 538 really useful for me is that they show so much under the hood. You can more easily tell where the mode missed and where you might disagree. Having an understanding of why the models says what it does allows it to be useful even if it seems funky. You can tell if the model is wayyy off on a certain player or predicts the minutes distribution and adjust your opinions/calculations accordingly.
 
No idea how we have avoided have ng anyone in protocols… Knock on wood
 
jazz4life1992 said:
Say this about the Suns... that team is hell to play in a close game. Booker and CP3 are nightmares to guard in the mid-range, and DA has certainly taken a step forward with his offense.
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The Blazers couldn't guard a basic pick-and-roll to save their lives. It seems they can't make free-throws at home either when they had opportunities to seal the game.
 
Ferguson_Mellochill said:
The Blazers couldn't guard a basic pick-and-roll to save their lives. It seems they can't make free-throws at home either when they had opportunities to seal the game.
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That Suns Spain P&R is one of the most deadly P&Rs in the NBA - they don't shoot the 3, but when they do, they're pretty efficient, and usually the 3s out of that action are wide the hell open.

And the Blazers couldn't stop it last night, even with Booker out.
 
Westbrook airball the three… then let’s his guy get a run out layup… he’s so great.
 
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