The *OFFICIAL* Russia Is About To Invade Ukraine Thread

[One Brow]

Saw an article today (cant find it again to link it) saying that documents were leaked showing that russia was originally planning to attack japan before deciding on ukraine. Wonder what would have happened if they had attacked japan instead.

Russia attacking Japan sounds too crazy to be true, frankly.

 

[The Thriller]

Thank god we have brave Ukrainians fighting Russia then. All we have to do is supply them with weapons and they can wear down and defeat one of the world’s greatest threats? Fantastic!

 

[fishonjazz]

Russia attacking Japan sounds too crazy to be true, frankly.

Agreed. Until I think about who is the leader of russia. He crazy.

 

[Rubashov]

Russia attacking Japan sounds too crazy to be true, frankly.

That would likely start World War 3, Japan is too important to the world economy for the rest of the world not to react.

 

[Rubashov]

Im interested to see what the Challengers do once they get to the front.

 

[Al-O-Meter]

Im interested to see what the Challengers do once they get to the front.

They won't make any difference. There aren't enough of them being delivered to Ukraine. The only hope is that they are a foot in the door and if Russia doesn't start WW3 over 14 Challengers, then it probably won't start WW3 over 21 Challengers. And if it didn't start WW3 over 21 Challengers then it probably won't start WW3 over 35 Challengers, etc., etc. In various deserts in the United States, we have nearly 4,000 older generation Abrams tanks in long term storage. If we shipped a thousand of them to Ukraine and protected the fuel pipelines into the area to make sure they could stay fueled, that would make a difference. However, going from zero American tanks straight to a thousand American tanks might start WW3.

 

[Rubashov]

They won't make any difference. There aren't enough of them being delivered to Ukraine. The only hope is that they are a foot in the door and if Russia doesn't start WW3 over 14 Challengers, then it probably won't start WW3 over 21 Challengers. And if it didn't start WW3 over 21 Challengers then it probably won't start WW3 over 35 Challengers, etc., etc. In various deserts in the United States, we have nearly 4,000 older generation Abrams tanks in long term storage. If we shipped a thousand of them to Ukraine and protected the fuel pipelines into the area to make sure they could stay fueled, that would make a difference. However, going from zero American tanks straight to a thousand American tanks might start WW3.

I think the British only have around 200 serviceable Challengers anyway, is it 60 Leopard 2s that are also getting deployed? That's closing in on 100 western tanks in theatre.

 

[Al-O-Meter]

I think the British only have around 200 serviceable Challengers anyway, is it 60 Leopard 2s that are also getting deployed? That's closing in on 100 western tanks in theatre.

A hundred main battle tanks is better than not having a hundred main battle tanks, but so far the real difference makers are the smaller pieces delivered in massive numbers, such as the Javelin and NLAW anti-tank weapons, and especially the RAAM 155mm howitzer shells that turned the open ground south of Vuhledar into a Russian graveyard which has so far prevented the encirclement of Avdiivka. The RAAM shells were so effective at creating instant minefields the Russians gave up using tanks there and marched in infantry without any armor support.

 

[Rubashov]

A hundred main battle tanks is better than not having a hundred main battle tanks, but so far the real difference makers are the smaller pieces delivered in massive numbers, such as the Javelin and NLAW anti-tank weapons, and especially the RAAM 155mm howitzer shells that turned the open ground south of Vuhledar into a Russian graveyard which has so far prevented the encirclement of Avdiivka. The RAAM shells were so effective at creating instant minefields the Russians gave up using tanks there and marched in infantry without any armor support.

Be interesting to see how they are utilised and if they can be effective in combined arms missions. Ukrainian's cavalry and infantry have been doing a heap of training in the UK, be interesting to see the effect.

 

[The Thriller]

Be interesting to see how they are utilised and if they can be effective in combined arms missions. Ukrainian's cavalry and infantry have been doing a heap of training in the UK, be interesting to see the effect.

I’d really like to see longer range artillery given to Ukraine. I understood the caution initially but not anymore.

 

[Rubashov]

I’d really like to see longer range artillery given to Ukraine. I understood the caution initially but not anymore.

Modern artillery will definitely help but its not going to allow break throughs like armour. we've sent them a bunch of our bushmasters 200+ I believe

These are basically infantry mobility vehicles but they've been using them in a combat support role, we deploy our infantry in bushmasters with ASLAVs for fire support for the infantry.

increased mechanisation is what they need to break the deadlock.

 

[Bucknutz]

I think we all kinda knew this already, but now a document has been leaked:


View: https://twitter.com/mintpressnews/status/1644341726306238464?s=46&t=BMMZjW7vq0_zwnmLDjNTgQ


NYT put out an article yesterday on a different batch and now another from today:


View: https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1644455053644767235?s=46&t=BMMZjW7vq0_zwnmLDjNTgQ


Someone is leaking info

 

[Al-O-Meter]

Someone is leaking info

Yes, the Russians are leaking information. Those supposed plans list 90,000 Ukrainian KIA as of 5 weeks ago and only 15,000 Russian KIA. The documents are fakes.

 

[Bucknutz]

Yes, the Russians are leaking information. Those supposed plans list 90,000 Ukrainian KIA as of 5 weeks ago and only 15,000 Russian KIA. The documents are fakes.

All the documents that are spreading on Twitter are fakes?


View: https://twitter.com/skynewsaust/status/1644151993114714113?s=46&t=BMMZjW7vq0_zwnmLDjNTgQ


Interesting. Do you have any links to support this, that I can check out?

Lots of documents are out there right now:

View: https://twitter.com/btr_fan21/status/1644384711576256538?s=46&t=BMMZjW7vq0_zwnmLDjNTgQ

 

[Al-O-Meter]

All the documents that are spreading on Twitter are fakes?

Interesting. Do you have any links to support this, that I can check out?

There are a ton of outlets reporting they are fake.

‘Secret’ US and Nato war plans are fake, says Ukraine

‘(Russia’s) intelligence services have degenerated to the point where they can only rehabilitate themselves with fake information,’ Ukraine’s Mykhailo Podolyak tweeted.

www.scmp.com

Leaked Ukraine counteroffensive plans may have been Putin ploy, says expert

The Pentagon says it's "reviewing" the reports of leaked military documents concerning Ukraine's planned counteroffensive.

www.newsweek.com

Leaked "counteroffensive plan" is fake and part of Russian information campaign – Defence Intelligence

Andrii Yusov, a representative of the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine, has said that the so-called "classified military documents" about the plans of the Armed Forces of Ukraine leaked to the network are forgery and a special operation of the Russian secret services.

news.yahoo.com

Ukraine war latest: Kyiv dismisses classified war papers leaked online as 'fake'

Key developments on April 7: * Ukraine's intelligence dismisses classified war documents leaked online as 'fake' * Foreign Ministry dismisses Brazil’s suggestion to cede Russian-occupied Crimea in exchange for peace with Moscow * Russian technicians may have sabotaged Slovak-provided MiG-29...

kyivindependent.com

However it isn't any of these outlets that tells me they are obvious fakes, it is that the information doesn't pass the smell test. There is no way Russia only has 15,000 or 17,500 KIA as is presented on the slides. That number is for the consumption of the Russian public. This supposed leak shows: a) the Russians are doing amazingly well -and- b) the Russians are actually fighting America and NATO. It is propaganda.

 

[Bucknutz]

There are a ton of outlets reporting they are fake.

‘Secret’ US and Nato war plans are fake, says Ukraine

‘(Russia’s) intelligence services have degenerated to the point where they can only rehabilitate themselves with fake information,’ Ukraine’s Mykhailo Podolyak tweeted.

www.scmp.com

Leaked Ukraine counteroffensive plans may have been Putin ploy, says expert

The Pentagon says it's "reviewing" the reports of leaked military documents concerning Ukraine's planned counteroffensive.

www.newsweek.com

Leaked "counteroffensive plan" is fake and part of Russian information campaign – Defence Intelligence

Andrii Yusov, a representative of the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine, has said that the so-called "classified military documents" about the plans of the Armed Forces of Ukraine leaked to the network are forgery and a special operation of the Russian secret services.

news.yahoo.com

Ukraine war latest: Kyiv dismisses classified war papers leaked online as 'fake'

Key developments on April 7: * Ukraine's intelligence dismisses classified war documents leaked online as 'fake' * Foreign Ministry dismisses Brazil’s suggestion to cede Russian-occupied Crimea in exchange for peace with Moscow * Russian technicians may have sabotaged Slovak-provided MiG-29...

kyivindependent.com

However it isn't any of these outlets that tells me they are obvious fakes, it is that the information doesn't pass the smell test. There is no way Russia only has 15,000 or 17,500 KIA as is presented on the slides. That number is for the consumption of the Russian public. This supposed leak shows: a) the Russians are doing amazingly well -and- b) the Russians are actually fighting America and NATO. It is propaganda.

Thanks I’ll check out these articles. I don’t know the actual totals of KIA on either side because the info I have been reading has a wide range of numbers. But I understand what point. Thanks again.

 

[Red]

Russians are stealing art from Ukraine on World War II scale, experts say

“Our research suggests that this looting is state-sponsored by Russia,” said a researcher at the Smithsonian Institution, which is preparing a report on the massive scale of the theft.

www.nbcnews.com

 

[LogGrad98]

Russians are stealing art from Ukraine on World War II scale, experts say

“Our research suggests that this looting is state-sponsored by Russia,” said a researcher at the Smithsonian Institution, which is preparing a report on the massive scale of the theft.

www.nbcnews.com

Putin aspires to Hitlerian heights of power apparently. What a piece of human garbage.

 

[Al-O-Meter]

Thanks I’ll check out these articles. I don’t know the actual totals of KIA on either side because the info I have been reading has a wide range of numbers. But I understand what point. Thanks again.

It is looking like the leak is real, and fake depending on which cache you are looking at.

From Discord to 4chan: The Improbable Journey of a US Intelligence Leak - bellingcat

A recent leak of sensitive US intelligence documents leads to stranger corners of the internet than initially thought.

www.bellingcat.com

There was only one image in common between the Telegram and 4chan posts: a map that showed a number of statistics, including the cumulative number of KIA (killed in action) soldiers on the Russian and Ukrainian sides through the course of the war. However, the numbers on these two sources differed, with the first source (4chan) showing more Russian losses than Ukrainian, and the second source (Donbass Devushka) the reverse. A closer examination of the second image, with the much higher Ukrainian KIA numbers, that was posted on Telegram shows crude image manipulation. As well as the later posting time and far blurrier resolution, the numbers are out of alignment. Spacing between some numbers and letters is also too large to be consistent with the font.

It therefore seems that either the Donbass Devushka Telegram account, or a previous source posted by this account, altered the original image to paint the Ukrainian losses as heavier than in the original assessment. Nevertheless, neither of the sources for the 4chan or Telegram posts are the original.

 

[Bucknutz]

It is looking like the leak is real, and fake depending on which cache you are looking at.

From Discord to 4chan: The Improbable Journey of a US Intelligence Leak - bellingcat

A recent leak of sensitive US intelligence documents leads to stranger corners of the internet than initially thought.

www.bellingcat.com

View: https://twitter.com/townhallcom/status/1645499884131295263?s=46&t=BMMZjW7vq0_zwnmLDjNTgQ


Can’t confirm or deny, but don’t report on it.