So I need to say that I was wrong. I expected the Russian war machine to get some traction and start taking cities, including the capital.
I think both Ukrainian resistance has been more effective and tenacious than expected, but Russian military incompetence, poor training, poor discipline, poor support, poor material readiness, poor field repair, poor planning, and absolutely abysmal self assessment has provided and actual opportunity for Ukraine to end this without the government falling.
With the disparity in numbers and military spending that's completely insane. I get that offensive military action is harder than defensive military action (always a little bonus multiplier when you're defending you home, your family, you country and responding to atrocities the enemy is committing against you) but Russia should have, on paper, done MUCH better at achieving their objectives than they have been.