Trade deadline discussion

[LoPo]

I think we try to keep Mike on a 2 year deal somewhere between 20/25M per. Once you have that commitment they look at what they can get for Bogey, JC, Favs and decide where we can get the best return and where we can replace production the cheapest. The Matt Thomas trade may be a tiny hedge for next year. You will have a guy that should be familiar with how we play and be ready to contribute.

If we get bounced in the first or second round it could get ugly.

So much will be decided this postseason.....

I'm not a Conley hater. I just want things to add up, and right now, they just haven't for me yet. People can make all the excuses they want, but why are the following numbers the way they are?

What Is The Jazz Record With And Without Conley 2019-2020 | StatMuse

The Utah Jazz had a 26-21 record with Mike Conley in 2019-20.

www.statmuse.com

2019-20 With Conley 26-21 (.553%)
2019-20 Without Conley 18-7 (.72%)
2020 Postseason 2-3 With, 1-1 Without

What Is The Jazz Record With And Without Conley This Season; Points Allowed | StatMuse

The Utah Jazz had a 31-51 record without Mike Conley this season.

www.statmuse.com

2020-21 With Conley 25-10 (.714%)
2020-21 Without Conley 7-1 (.875%)

It's such a bizarre thing that we are statistically better without him than with him. Doesn't make sense. He's a great player. I like the guy. I'm not a Conley hater. I just struggle with the mindset some have around here that he's so incredibly essential.

If we have another disappointing postseason, I don't know if re-signing Mike to jettison Bogey, JC and/or Favors is the right move. I really hope we don't disappoint. I want to win a title and bring back everybody.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

So much will be decided this postseason.....

I'm not a Conley hater. I just want things to add up, and right now, they just haven't for me yet. People can make all the excuses they want, but why are the following numbers the way they are?

What Is The Jazz Record With And Without Conley 2019-2020 | StatMuse

The Utah Jazz had a 26-21 record with Mike Conley in 2019-20.

www.statmuse.com

2019-20 With Conley 26-21 (.553%)
2019-20 Without Conley 18-7 (.72%)
2020 Postseason 2-3 With, 1-1 Without

What Is The Jazz Record With And Without Conley This Season; Points Allowed | StatMuse

The Utah Jazz had a 31-51 record without Mike Conley this season.

www.statmuse.com

2020-21 With Conley 25-10 (.714%)
2020-21 Without Conley 7-1 (.875%)

It's such a bizarre thing that we are statistically better without him than with him. Doesn't make sense. He's a great player. I like the guy. I'm not a Conley hater. I just struggle with the mindset some have around here that he's so incredibly essential.

If we have another disappointing postseason, I don't know if re-signing Mike to jettison Bogey, JC and/or Favors is the right move. I really hope we don't disappoint. I want to win a title and bring back everybody.

I think Mike is more likely to be even more valuable in the postseason. He’s been very good this year and the first half of last year appears to be the outlier at this point.

I think guys like JC can be less effective in the playoffs... maybe it’s just specific to Lou Will but if he isn’t good in the playoffs he could be the guy that is moved. I think he’d have good trade value so we’d get something for him. I think Bogey is a candidate but if he has a resurgence in the playoffs we will want to keep him... if he continues his slide then I’m not sure he has value in a trade.

The best thing we could do is just win the title and run it back... if I was DL that’s what I’d do.

 

[LoPo]

I think Mike is more likely to be even more valuable in the postseason. He’s been very good this year and the first half of last year appears to be the outlier at this point.

I think guys like JC can be less effective in the playoffs... maybe it’s just specific to Lou Will but if he isn’t good in the playoffs he could be the guy that is moved. I think he’d have good trade value so we’d get something for him. I think Bogey is a candidate but if he has a resurgence in the playoffs we will want to keep him... if he continues his slide then I’m not sure he has value in a trade.

The best thing we could do is just win the title and run it back... if I was DL that’s what I’d do.

I really hope everything you said here is true especially with regards to Conley being even more valuable come playoff time. I would rather keep this team together than break it up. To do so, we have to win some series of significance. I think we can and I hope that we will.

 

[Elizah Huge]

Lopo you've been 100% wrong about Conley. You are being completely dishonest if you act like you arent his biggest hater.

It’s comical at this point. Dude is so bad he’s almost hitting the ignore list.

 

[LoPo]

It’s comical at this point. Dude is so bad he’s almost hitting the ignore list.

Please don't. I need my sleep......

 

[Elizah Huge]

Please don't. I need my sleep......

Please stop ****ing threads up with your terrible takes. Whatever Conley did to you get over it. Your posts about him are so cringe. You literally said we would wave him goodbye if we won the championship. Lmao I don’t even know what to say. You bring up stats but aren’t we undefeated without Mitchell?

 

[gomretat]

Remember when Mike was benched last year then the front office intervened and he was a starter a few hours later... kinda sloppy.

Remember when we had a couple star players feuding and the front office kinda hung Rudy out to dry? Is that all star management? What about when they let it linger on? They are lucky Rudy is mature and wanted to rectify the situation.

I don't have all the details but it doesn't mean I can't spot where there are issues or where there was poor planning or asset management.

We agree on the Mike situation being bad but I dont get how that is "sloppy." I dont think anyone left Rudy out to dry in any way and I think they handled it very well. And if your point is, can anyone every identify something that could have been done better, you win. Dont know of any place that is not true. But we still disagree on casualness or sloppiness around the cap. Cap issues happen but that is because new situations emerge all of the time and this FO has a track record of managing the cap extremely well and simply now have a new owner who is approving things that were not approved in the past.

 

[LogGrad98]

I know where the money is spent when it comes to salary cap... its basically public ****ing knowledge. We put ourselves in a spot where we were slightly over the tax. Did Ryan know... probably. Does he know the full cap sheet and ramifications of being in the repeater tax... maybe, but he also trusts someone in the front office not to **** that up. The guy ain't filing his own tax returns... he has people for that.

You explain this dynamic and changing environment but any dumbass with excel and understanding could tell that if we use the full MLE along with the contract we handed out to JC would put us just above the tax once you met the minimum roster requirements... we were over by like $500kish but with no places to cut because everyone was a minimum guy. So lets say you ask Favs to take $300k less and JC to take $300k less this year... is that a deal breaker? I'm guessing not. If it was is Favs the only backup center that can possibly fill that role... there were a **** ton of guys we could have got that made a little less... there were guys available at the minimum.

Even if they had to have Favs and JC at the numbers the got... The other route would have been to slide down in the draft from 27 to a mid 2nd rounder. Would have shaved 1.2M and got us under the tax. I am sure the love Dok so much they had to have him... but they also brought in a guy on a big contract for three years right after drafting him... so how confident were they really.

In the Conley deal there were not a lot of suitors... Detroit, us, or he could stay in Memphis. We paid full price and then some... even after those assholes strung us out at the trade deadline and leaked out the trade.

This summer we used several second round picks to offload centers. One we drafted when we already had 2 established centers... then we brought in another in Udoh because we didn't trust a rookie. We continued picking up his rookie deal even though we clearly didn't trust him. Eventually we use a second to dump the option we picked up.

I didn't say they were incompetent. I explained what I meant by sloppy. Ending up a couple million over the tax when you had opportunities to duck it is sloppy spreadsheet work... sorry. Using seconds to clean up several backup center messes only to use your first round pick and MLE on backup centers is sloppy. There were years we operated at or below the salary floor rather than using excess cap space... kinda sloppy.

We took Faves because he was a known quantity and he was well-liked within the org and in the locker room. He was a definite upgrade over Bradley at the time, still is quite frankly. Yes I think there were probably both cheaper and better options for us, but sometimes the devil you know is better than the devil you don't.

 

[LoPo]

Please stop ****ing threads up with your terrible takes. Whatever Conley did to you get over it. Your posts about him are so cringe. You literally said we would wave him goodbye if we won the championship. Lmao I don’t even know what to say. You bring up stats but aren’t we undefeated without Mitchell?

You really should work on your reading comprehension. You get all worked up before you even comprehend what you're reading.

"If we don't win a title or even choke out early, our FO can say that spent they so much money this year going for it (Rudy, Don, JC, Favors, didn't trade anybody to skirt the LT, etc.).

At that point, we probably just wave Conley goodbye."

Many many times I've said we bring everybody back if we win the West or win the Finals.

 

[gomretat]

The #1 seed that's looking like a 2nd round out if any of us are willing to be honest.

We agree on that. I think we are a good team but unless we get some luck I dont think we are ready to go to the promised land this year.

 

[LogGrad98]

Wish we would have done something. The issue of perimeter D is going to come back and bite us, just watch.

 

[whatthe]

Wish we would have done something. The issue of perimeter D is going to come back and bite us, just watch.

We are going to try to outshoot the competition and pray that Rudy is enough. There was nothing to stop the top 5 talent out there on the perimeter without compromising the 4 out strategy.

 

[LoPo]

Wish we would have done something. The issue of perimeter D is going to come back and bite us, just watch.

I really hope that for some reason Avery Bradley gets bought out by Houston and he decides to come here.

 

[NAOS]

Wish we would have done something. The issue of perimeter D is going to come back and bite us, just watch.

All hopes riding on the buyout market. Oy.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

We agree on the Mike situation being bad but I dont get how that is "sloppy." I dont think anyone left Rudy out to dry in any way and I think they handled it very well. And if your point is, can anyone every identify something that could have been done better, you win. Dont know of any place that is not true. But we still disagree on casualness or sloppiness around the cap. Cap issues happen but that is because new situations emerge all of the time and this FO has a track record of managing the cap extremely well and simply now have a new owner who is approving things that were not approved in the past.

You are flat out wrong... sorry. You are explaining some dynamic situation where there were millions of unknowns... we knew what the cap was, we knew who we wanted to keep, we knew we needed a backup center, we knew exactly how much the MLE was and that using the full amount would mean we were over the tax by a very small amount. We knew that would start the repeater tax clock.

The only unknown I can think of is that maybe they were not sure they would need to re-sign Conley this offseason because he is playing well. Even still good responsible cap managers would have given themselves some ability or wiggle room... there were 3 opportunities to do so. If you fail to plan then you plan to fail.

Take the Favs situation... say they felt he was the only backup center they could ever want or need... but that they also needed to slip below the tax this year to avoid a potential $50M penalty or losing a key cog this offseason... He wants 3 years and $29M as the full MLE... could you just negotiate that number down $1m the first year and tack a fourth year on the deal that is 40% guaranteed and get it done... even if you gave him 4/36 and made the whole thing guaranteed you are giving up $6M to potentially save 10s of millions later or to prevent a future fire sale. If he was deeply offended at the negotiation and walks then guess what? You find another alternative! You just drafted a kid you apparently really love so stringing yourself out long term is likely not ideal.

Call it what you want but if these guys are ****ing financial ninjas like you are purporting then they should be able to manage a couple contract negotiations without setting ourselves up for a catastrophic financial event. If Ryan is so willing to spend why did we give up a real asset to dump Rayjon Tucker's $400k guarantee? If you end up in the tax by a small amount and make moves to shed dollars with assets and add dollars later on meaningless depth... well that doesn't strike me as nailing it. There is some inconsistencies here that even a casual dumb ****ing fan like me can see.

If you think we have managed the cap well then I would advise you to look back at Gordon's final season... we reserved cap space to extend Hill but then we couldn't come to terms and did nothing meaningful with that space. A completely wasted asset. If we are so on top of it don't we negotiate earlier with Hill and use the space if we think we are too far apart?

Doesn't mean DL sux or that our front office is dumz AF... it means whoever our cap guru is should be let go or given a strong talking to... if DL ignored that person then its on him. Not a fireable offense but I've seen CEOs fire smart CFOs over less.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

So much will be decided this postseason.....

I'm not a Conley hater. I just want things to add up, and right now, they just haven't for me yet. People can make all the excuses they want, but why are the following numbers the way they are?

What Is The Jazz Record With And Without Conley 2019-2020 | StatMuse

The Utah Jazz had a 26-21 record with Mike Conley in 2019-20.

www.statmuse.com

2019-20 With Conley 26-21 (.553%)
2019-20 Without Conley 18-7 (.72%)
2020 Postseason 2-3 With, 1-1 Without

What Is The Jazz Record With And Without Conley This Season; Points Allowed | StatMuse

The Utah Jazz had a 31-51 record without Mike Conley this season.

www.statmuse.com

2020-21 With Conley 25-10 (.714%)
2020-21 Without Conley 7-1 (.875%)

It's such a bizarre thing that we are statistically better without him than with him. Doesn't make sense. He's a great player. I like the guy. I'm not a Conley hater. I just struggle with the mindset some have around here that he's so incredibly essential.

If we have another disappointing postseason, I don't know if re-signing Mike to jettison Bogey, JC and/or Favors is the right move. I really hope we don't disappoint. I want to win a title and bring back everybody.

Again, this is why you are a clown.

You're taking the most basic team performance stat possible and just projecting on to it what you think.

The Jazz are +13.7 points per 100 this year with Conley on the court vs off.

The Jazz are -4.2 with Donovan on vs off this year.

If you flipped those stats, I'm sure as hell you would be bringing it up as a mark against Conley and why he should be traded or benched immediately.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Filling out our roster with minimum guys and giving Mike a contract at 2 years and 45M in total creates $100M in luxury tax the next two years. We gave up a second round pick to net maybe $1M in the Tucker deal... maybe less. Please don't tell me Ryan will just cut that check.

If we signed a one year stop gap center at one year $7M this year and ducked the tax it would save over $70M over 3 years. Just ducking the tax this year and getting Favs down a little would save around 15-20M in tax in 2 years.

So when Bogey or JC are offloaded this summer (because Favs is likely not a desirable commodity) or Mike walks because we don't want to pay him... please come here and tell me all about how wise and prudent we are as cap managers.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Again, this is why you are a clown.

You're taking the most basic team performance stat possible and just projecting on to it what you think.

The Jazz are +13.7 points per 100 this year with Conley on the court vs off.

The Jazz are -4.2 with Donovan on vs off this year.

If you flipped those stats, I'm sure as hell you would be bringing it up as a mark against Conley and why he should be traded or benched immediately.

Mike has been very good and it is different than last year when he got hot. He fits and it works and he's setting up Rudy. It is night and day. Even in the bubble last year he got nuclear hot but I still didn't feel super comfortable with it because it wasn't as smooth as it has been this year.

Mike this year is the guy we thought we were getting. The on/off can be a little inflated because of Rudy but anyone watching should be able to see how big a difference maker he is. His defense has been worlds better too. I will eat all the crow because I'm stoked the way its going now. Bring me your crow...it tastes like Filet Mignon.

 

[LoPo]

Again, this is why you are a clown.

You're taking the most basic team performance stat possible and just projecting on to it what you think.

The Jazz are +13.7 points per 100 this year with Conley on the court vs off.

The Jazz are -4.2 with Donovan on vs off this year.

If you flipped those stats, I'm sure as hell you would be bringing it up as a mark against Conley and why he should be traded or benched immediately.

Cool. You resorted to name calling. Again. You brilliant mind you. Said it a million times - a person can come up with a stat to support almost any viewpoint.

I want to win games. I want to win playoff series. I want to win a championship. You don't find it a bit bizarre that our team, since the Conley arrival (so this year and last), is the following?

25-8 without Conley
2-2 without Rudy
3-2 without Don

With Conley, we have a 62% win percentage
Without Conley, we have a 76% win percentage

I know the game is much more complicated than wins with/without somebody, but to completely dismiss it (like you are) is more idiotic than being concerned about it (like I have). It's got to be one of the most critical stats that is looked at.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Cool. You resorted to name calling. Again. You brilliant mind you. Said it a million times - a person can come up with a stat to support almost any viewpoint.

I want to win games. I want to win playoff series. I want to win a championship. You don't find it a bit bizarre that our team, since the Conley arrival (so this year and last), is the following?

25-8 without Conley
2-2 without Rudy
3-2 without Don

With Conley, we have a 62% win percentage
Without Conley, we have a 76% win percentage

I know the game is much more complicated than wins with/without somebody, but to completely dismiss it (like you are) is more idiotic than being concerned about it (like I have). It's got to be one of the most critical stats that is looked at.

No, not really. That offers no context at all. We can completely dismiss it unless you really think the Jazz are better off without an All-Star PG. If you think that, just say so.