Trade Rumors Involving the Jazz

[Udidthizz]

I love how we're discussing moves for the Lakers playoff run when they're currently 12th in the West.

They’re 3 games behind the nr. 4 seed.

 

[Korisfani]

HH, There are 30 games left. It's not like we have tanked the whole season. The league is closely yoked. A 5 game losing streak is the difference between a top 20 pick and a top 8 pick right now. A 10 game losing streak fetches you a 35% chance of a top 3 pick. We can suffer 10 games and get that reward!!! Don't overthink it. You won't remember 10 games. You will remember the Kings losing for 16 years. This is a no brainer.

Is there any logic behind this?

35 % chance at the top 3 is the 4 seed. That's currently the Hornets with 15 wins. IF the Jazz lose the next 10 games, they're 27-36. Meanwhile, the Hornets are probably 18-45 or 17-46.

The bottom 5 teams are unlikely to get a better record than the Jazz even if the Jazz go 0-29 from now on.

And going hell for leather for... the 6th or 7th pick? In what universe does that make sense? All the assets you're benching are losing value and Lauri is possibly thinking about a trade request for the summer if you give him three months of "knee soreness".

 

[YoungJefe]

Is there any logic behind this?

35 % chance at the top 3 is the 4 seed. That's currently the Hornets with 15 wins. IF the Jazz lose the next 10 games, they're 27-36. Meanwhile, the Hornets are probably 18-45 or 17-46.

The bottom 5 teams are unlikely to get a better record than the Jazz even if the Jazz go 0-29 from now on.

And going hell for leather for... the 6th or 7th pick? In what universe does that make sense? All the assets you're benching are losing value and Lauri is possibly thinking about a trade request for the summer if you give him three months of "knee soreness".

You give yourself a chance to get a top 3 pick which could be the difference between an All NBA level dude and an average starter. The Thunder have shut down SGA multiple times, he hasn't demanded out, lol.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Is there any logic behind this?

35 % chance at the top 3 is the 4 seed. That's currently the Hornets with 15 wins. IF the Jazz lose the next 10 games, they're 27-36. Meanwhile, the Hornets are probably 18-45 or 17-46.

The bottom 5 teams are unlikely to get a better record than the Jazz even if the Jazz go 0-29 from now on.

And going hell for leather for... the 6th or 7th pick? In what universe does that make sense? All the assets you're benching are losing value and Lauri is possibly thinking about a trade request for the summer if you give him three months of "knee soreness".

It’s based on pick odds not on where we would land in the standings. 6/7 pick is a whole lot more valuable than the 14-16 pick. There is a certain all star that was selected with the 7th pick once upon a time.

 

[Korisfani]

You give yourself a chance to get a top 3 pick which could be the difference between an All NBA level dude and an average starter. The Thunder have shut down SGA multiple times, he hasn't demanded out, lol.

It’s based on pick odds not on where we would land in the standings. 6/7 pick is a whole lot more valuable than the 14-16 pick. There is a certain all star that was selected with the 7th pick once upon a time.

I do understand how the lottery works...

But to have a 35 % chance at a top3 pick (2/3 chance it's not!), you have to have the 4th seed in the lottery. Getting the 4th seed is pretty much impossible, even going 0-29 the rest of the way. (And even though I think Silver is mostly full of hot air, if the Jazz go 0-29, they won't have a pick at all...)

Yes, a 7th pick is more valuable than the 15th. The difference is much, much less than between the 2nd and 7th. And tanking isn't free, all the developing and promising players (who have value to the Jazz) lose value. Loss of value > gain of value from a slightly better pick.

Yeah, Lauri was picked 7th. Other All-Stars: Sabonis 11, SGA 11, PG 10, Giannis 15, Donovan 13, Jokic 41, Bam 14.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

I do understand how the lottery works...

But to have a 35 % chance at a top3 pick (2/3 chance it's not!), you have to have the 4th seed in the lottery. Getting the 4th seed is pretty much impossible, even going 0-29 the rest of the way. (And even though I think Silver is mostly full of hot air, if the Jazz go 0-29, they won't have a pick at all...)

I could see us landing 9th or 10th but likely not all the way to 6/7... even though its tight.

Yes, a 7th pick is more valuable than the 15th. The difference is much, much less than between the 2nd and 7th. And tanking isn't free, all the developing and promising players (who have value to the Jazz) lose value. Loss of value > gain of value from a slightly better pick.

This isn't really true. Tanking for years can have an organizational costs sure. Trading Mike/JC/KO and losing 5 -6 more games over a 30 game span won't bother anything and in fact will provide a valuable development window for us to see Ochai, NAW, THT, Sexton more. Add in the assets and its even sweeter. You can likely flip the 7th pick for two picks in the 10-14 range and double your chances at finding the guys you listed below... You also get a much better shot at getting your guy... and are in a range where you could move to 3 or 4 if you really wanted to.

Yeah, Lauri was picked 7th. Other All-Stars: Sabonis 11, SGA 11, PG 10, Giannis 15, Donovan 13, Jokic 41, Bam 14.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

And if we sell off Mike, JC, Beasley for assets and Lauri/Walker/Ochai and then they carry us to the playoffs... it means they leveled up again or we got some real pop from NAW, Sexton, etc.

There really is only upside.

 

[Korisfani]

Trading Mike/JC/KO and losing 5 -6 more games over a 30 game span won't bother anything and in fact will provide a valuable development window for us to see Ochai, NAW, THT, Sexton more. Add in the assets and its even sweeter.

That's not tanking though. That's not benching everyone to go on a 10 game losing streak.

That's something I in fact support - given there's value in those trades and whatever contracts come the Jazz's way don't restrict future moves too much.

 

[KqWIN]

I do understand how the lottery works...

But to have a 35 % chance at a top3 pick (2/3 chance it's not!), you have to have the 4th seed in the lottery. Getting the 4th seed is pretty much impossible, even going 0-29 the rest of the way. (And even though I think Silver is mostly full of hot air, if the Jazz go 0-29, they won't have a pick at all...)

Yes, a 7th pick is more valuable than the 15th. The difference is much, much less than between the 2nd and 7th. And tanking isn't free, all the developing and promising players (who have value to the Jazz) lose value. Loss of value > gain of value from a slightly better pick.

Yeah, Lauri was picked 7th. Other All-Stars: Sabonis 11, SGA 11, PG 10, Giannis 15, Donovan 13, Jokic 41, Bam 14.

Developing players do not gain value for sitting on the bench when vets play instead of them. If anything, it’s the complete opposite. Development isn’t free and it usually comes at the cost of losing games.

People are getting lost in the sauce with the development stuff. We’re acting like Lauri is going to disappear into the void if he can’t play with Mike Conley for 30 games.

Truth is, nobody is gonna care what happened in the remaining 30 games once they are done. But I can guarantee that come draft time people are going to wishing they were drafting even just one spot earlier.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

That's not tanking though. That's not benching everyone to go on a 10 game losing streak.

That's something I in fact support - given there's value in those trades and whatever contracts come the Jazz's way don't restrict future moves too much.

There are degrees my friend. Realistically we will not lose 10 straight... we won't be that obvious. It would not take much for us to slide down to 8-10ish. Go 6-14 over a 20 game stretch and you are there.

 

[whatthe]

I think it is Clarkson, Beasely, and Sexton + 2023 BKN + 2nd rounder pick for Westbrook + 2FRP + Pickswap.

 

[Korisfani]

Developing players do not gain value for sitting on the bench when vets play instead of them. If anything, it’s the complete opposite. Development isn’t free and it usually comes at the cost of losing games.

To get the 4th seed in the lottery, the Jazz aren't playing the developing players. They're playing Dok, Bolmaro, Fontecchio and whatever rejects they got in the trades.

There are degrees my friend. Realistically we will not lose 10 straight... we won't be that obvious. It would not take much for us to slide down to 8-10ish. Go 6-14 over a 20 game stretch and you are there.

Well, you and your scenario wasn't what I was responding to. It was getting the 4th seed with the 10 game streaks.