Who will replace Biden?

[Red]

My sister mentioned to me yesterday, she could not remember where she read it, but the more I thought about it the more I saw the potential merit: “Which ever party nominates someone different, will win the election”. This belief would derive from this fact: many Americans do not want to see another Biden-Trump race. Nominate someone younger, put together a new ticket, and the Democrats could gain momentum, not lose the 2024 election. Even with such a short time to campaign an all new ticket, the excitement could work, and work well, in this most unusual election cycle:

Every Democrat Other Than Joe Biden Is Unburdened by What Has Been

As voters look for an option other than Biden or Trump, alternative Democratic leaders poll similarly or even better than Biden.

theintercept.com

From the Intercept article:

“Since the poll results come without any concentrated campaign by any of the officials, they can be read as a reflection of floors rather than ceilings for each of the alternative Democrats. Given mass voter discontent with the choice between Trump and Biden, the polling suggests that voters could readily get behind someone else.

A Reuters poll conducted as far back as January found that about half of Democrats and 75 percent of independents thought Biden should not run for president again; it also found that 31 percent of Republicans and 63 percent of independents said Trump shouldn’t run again. A NewsNation poll conducted around the same time found that 59 percent of Americans wouldn’t be enthusiastic about a Biden-Trump rematch. The trend has continued in recent polling: A post-debate USA Today poll found that 41 percent of Democrats and 64 percent of independents wanted Biden replaced, with 63 percent of independents wanting Trump replaced. A CBS poll similarly found nearly half of Democrats want Biden to step aside.

In the aftermath of the debate, a CNN poll found 75 percent of all voters thought Democrats would have a better chance at winning the election with someone other than Biden at the top of the ticket. It suggested Whitmer, California Gov. Gavin Newsom, and Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg were all doing slightly better than the presiden, with Harris within the margin of error of Trump. (Harris’s net-approval rating average is also 9 points better than Biden’s).

This polling suggests there are substantial numbers of disenchanted Democrats, independents, and even Republicans who could be enthused by an alternative, while those still standing by Biden are just as likely to support any Democratic alternative to Trump. A Democratic presidential campaign that’s been shedding support could instead be one that’s gaining momentum”.

Democratic operative Carville feels the same way:

James Carville Issues Blunt Plea To Democratic Donors About Ditching Biden

The longtime Democratic strategist reportedly warned donors what he’d do if “we don’t do something about this.”

www.huffpost.com

Kamala Harris’ massive edge for nomination:

https://www.axios.com/2024/07/04/kamala-harris-replace-biden-2024-election

————————————————————————————————

So, the argument is: what seems like a massive advantage for Trump post Biden debate debacle could be an advantage Democrats, if the “we don’t want Trump or Biden” motivates the electorate that much. The Republican convention will nominate Trump. Beginning in August, the Dems have a chance to galvanize the electorate if the electorate(other than the Trump cult)really want to see youth and enthusiasm for the future, rather than Trump’s dystopian message.

 

[str8line]

My sister mentioned to me yesterday, she could not remember where she read it, but the more I thought about it the more I saw the potential merit: “Which ever party nominates someone different, will win the election”. This belief would derive from this fact: many Americans do not want to see another Biden-Trump race. Nominate someone younger, put together a new ticket, and the Democrats could gain momentum, not lose the 2024 election. Even with such a short time to campaign an all new ticket, the excitement could work, and work well, in this most unusual election cycle:

Every Democrat Other Than Joe Biden Is Unburdened by What Has Been

As voters look for an option other than Biden or Trump, alternative Democratic leaders poll similarly or even better than Biden.

theintercept.com

From the Intercept article:

“Since the poll results come without any concentrated campaign by any of the officials, they can be read as a reflection of floors rather than ceilings for each of the alternative Democrats. Given mass voter discontent with the choice between Trump and Biden, the polling suggests that voters could readily get behind someone else.

A Reuters poll conducted as far back as January found that about half of Democrats and 75 percent of independents thought Biden should not run for president again; it also found that 31 percent of Republicans and 63 percent of independents said Trump shouldn’t run again. A NewsNation poll conducted around the same time found that 59 percent of Americans wouldn’t be enthusiastic about a Biden-Trump rematch. The trend has continued in recent polling: A post-debate USA Today poll found that 41 percent of Democrats and 64 percent of independents wanted Biden replaced, with 63 percent of independents wanting Trump replaced. A CBS poll similarly found nearly half of Democrats want Biden to step aside.

In the aftermath of the debate, a CNN poll found 75 percent of all voters thought Democrats would have a better chance at winning the election with someone other than Biden at the top of the ticket. It suggested Whitmer, California Gov. Gavin Newsom, and Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg were all doing slightly better than the presiden, with Harris within the margin of error of Trump. (Harris’s net-approval rating average is also 9 points better than Biden’s).

This polling suggests there are substantial numbers of disenchanted Democrats, independents, and even Republicans who could be enthused by an alternative, while those still standing by Biden are just as likely to support any Democratic alternative to Trump. A Democratic presidential campaign that’s been shedding support could instead be one that’s gaining momentum”.

Democratic operative Carville feels the same way:

James Carville Issues Blunt Plea To Democratic Donors About Ditching Biden

The longtime Democratic strategist reportedly warned donors what he’d do if “we don’t do something about this.”

www.huffpost.com

Kamala Harris’ massive edge for nomination:

https://www.axios.com/2024/07/04/kamala-harris-replace-biden-2024-election

————————————————————————————————

So, the argument is: what seems like a massive advantage for Trump post Biden debate debacle could be an advantage Democrats, if the “we don’t want Trump or Biden” motivates the electorate that much. The Republican convention will nominate Trump. Beginning in August, the Dems have a chance to galvanize the electorate if the electorate(other than the Trump cult)really want to see youth and enthusiasm for the future, rather than Trump’s dystopian message.

Yeah, no.

• Rep. Bennie Thompson (D-Miss.), who chaired the House Jan. 6 committee, told Axios' Hans Nichols that Harris is "incredibly strong ... You can't say Biden has done a good job without saying she's done a good job." For her to be pushed aside from consideration, he said, "would be the kiss of death for the party."

 

[fishonjazz]

My sister mentioned to me yesterday, she could not remember where she read it, but the more I thought about it the more I saw the potential merit: “Which ever party nominates someone different, will win the election”. This belief would derive from this fact: many Americans do not want to see another Biden-Trump race. Nominate someone younger, put together a new ticket, and the Democrats could gain momentum, not lose the 2024 election. Even with such a short time to campaign an all new ticket, the excitement could work, and work well, in this most unusual election cycle:

Every Democrat Other Than Joe Biden Is Unburdened by What Has Been

As voters look for an option other than Biden or Trump, alternative Democratic leaders poll similarly or even better than Biden.

theintercept.com

From the Intercept article:

“Since the poll results come without any concentrated campaign by any of the officials, they can be read as a reflection of floors rather than ceilings for each of the alternative Democrats. Given mass voter discontent with the choice between Trump and Biden, the polling suggests that voters could readily get behind someone else.

A Reuters poll conducted as far back as January found that about half of Democrats and 75 percent of independents thought Biden should not run for president again; it also found that 31 percent of Republicans and 63 percent of independents said Trump shouldn’t run again. A NewsNation poll conducted around the same time found that 59 percent of Americans wouldn’t be enthusiastic about a Biden-Trump rematch. The trend has continued in recent polling: A post-debate USA Today poll found that 41 percent of Democrats and 64 percent of independents wanted Biden replaced, with 63 percent of independents wanting Trump replaced. A CBS poll similarly found nearly half of Democrats want Biden to step aside.

In the aftermath of the debate, a CNN poll found 75 percent of all voters thought Democrats would have a better chance at winning the election with someone other than Biden at the top of the ticket. It suggested Whitmer, California Gov. Gavin Newsom, and Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg were all doing slightly better than the presiden, with Harris within the margin of error of Trump. (Harris’s net-approval rating average is also 9 points better than Biden’s).

This polling suggests there are substantial numbers of disenchanted Democrats, independents, and even Republicans who could be enthused by an alternative, while those still standing by Biden are just as likely to support any Democratic alternative to Trump. A Democratic presidential campaign that’s been shedding support could instead be one that’s gaining momentum”.

Democratic operative Carville feels the same way:

James Carville Issues Blunt Plea To Democratic Donors About Ditching Biden

The longtime Democratic strategist reportedly warned donors what he’d do if “we don’t do something about this.”

www.huffpost.com

Kamala Harris’ massive edge for nomination:

https://www.axios.com/2024/07/04/kamala-harris-replace-biden-2024-election

————————————————————————————————

So, the argument is: what seems like a massive advantage for Trump post Biden debate debacle could be an advantage Democrats, if the “we don’t want Trump or Biden” motivates the electorate that much. The Republican convention will nominate Trump. Beginning in August, the Dems have a chance to galvanize the electorate if the electorate(other than the Trump cult)really want to see youth and enthusiasm for the future, rather than Trump’s dystopian message.

My response to this?: duh

I been saying this for a long long time

Sent from my CPH2451 using Tapatalk

 

[Sardines]

One thing that could really benefit Harris and Whitmer would be their ability to lean into the GOPs efforts to restrict the reproductive rights of women. That's a winning issue for the Dems all day long.

 

[str8line]

One thing that could really benefit Harris and Whitmer would be their ability to lean into the GOPs efforts to restrict the reproductive rights of women. That's a winning issue for the Dems all day long.

I can't see Harris rallying people except for those on the right. She's been a historically unpopular VP. The 2nd amendment is a pretty big liability for her since she's been outspoken on gun laws. Kamala isn't Presidential at all that's why she's been off the radar. Whitmer would be a good choice though.

https://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/election/presidential-election/article277246198.html

 

[Al-O-Meter]

I can't see Harris rallying people except for those on the right. She's not Presidential material in my opinion. On the 2nd amendment alone she'd lose. Whitmer would have a much better chance.

They are going to have to figure something out. Trump has large leads in the poll of all swing states. Trump is up by 6% nationally. 73% of registered democrats think Joe Biden is too old. Yet, with all of that, Joe Biden will win the election because of the changes made to the system. No GOP candidate can win a national election. If Joe Biden stays in, he will win even though his opponent has a 6% lead in the polls, and people will start asking questions.

 

[str8line]

They are going to have to figure something out. Trump has large leads in the poll of all swing states. Trump is up by 6% nationally. 73% of registered democrats think Joe Biden is too old. Yet, with all of that, Joe Biden will win the election because of the changes made to the system. No GOP candidate can win a national election. If Joe Biden stays in, he will win even though his opponent has a 6% lead in the polls, and people will start asking questions.

Dare I ask why a Republican can't win?

 

[Sardines]

Dare I ask why a Republican can't win?

Because so many people who haven't voted at high rates historically are now included in our constitutional republic's democratic process and they aren't typically GOP voters. That's because until recently the GOP has had really good success suppressing their votes.

Wah

 

[Al-O-Meter]

Dare I ask why a Republican can't win?

Because I've seen the system in action. The "emergency" changes in 2020 many states made to their voting systems using the pandemic as the claimed motivation were modeled on California Assembly Bill No. 1921 and California Voter’s Choice Act, both passed into law in 2016. In the very next election, in 2018, Orange County lost every single seat to Democrats. Orange County leans super-right and the republican incumbents were leading in the polls on the day of the election. The political landscape after Assembly Bill No. 1921 and California Voter’s Choice Act is almost unrecognizable to what was before it was put into place.

Not all states adopted these changes, but enough did that I don't see how a Republican can win even if they have a 10-point lead in the opinion polls, and because these changes are enshrined in law, it isn't fraud, it is simply the way the system works now. The US Constitution goes so far as to explicitly grant the states the power to do what they did so challenging it in court is pointless. It is just the way it is.

 

[gandalfe]

Who will replace Biden as the new Democratic nominee?

There are several options being floated among Democrats to replace Joe Biden at the top of the ticket.

www.yahoo.com

Of these choices Mayor Pete would be my first choice. 42 years old. Very intelligent. Very well spoken. His gayness might make him lose though. I would still go with him anyway.
The former mayor of South Bend, Ind., Buttigieg, 42, was the breakout star of the 2020 Democratic presidential primary contest; he even won the Iowa caucuses. Some of his rise stemmed from his pioneering identity: If nominated, Buttigieg might have become the first openly gay president in U.S. history. But the bigger factor was his ability to craft and articulate a clear, concise, consistent message. As Biden’s transportation secretary, Buttigieg has honed his rhetorical skills while gaining valuable government experience.

My second choice would be Newsome. 56 years old. Looks the part. Charasmatic. Well spoken. His ties to california would probably hurt him too much (people hate california). I dont think he should be the choice despite the fact that I like him ok.
Newsom, 56, is the telegenic, smooth-talking governor of the most populous state in the country. In recent years, he has also fashioned himself as a national figure — the leading mouthpiece for anti-Trump, anti-MAGA liberals at a moment when, in his opinion, much of the rest of the Democratic Party has been falling short. He has debated Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, his GOP counterpart; he has raised money for red-state Dems; he has appeared on Fox News. If the key to beating Trump is winning the attention war, then Newsom is a step ahead of his fellow White House hopefuls.

My third choice would probably be whitmer. 52 years old. Im ready to see what a woman president could do. She has been very successful politically
She’s in charge of Michigan, perhaps the most important swing state. In the 2022 midterms — typically a tough time for members of the president’s party — Whitmer won reelection over her GOP challenger, a conservative media personality, by more than 10 percentage points, helping Democrats flip the state legislature. She then signed progressive laws on climate change, gay rights, guns and unions and positioned herself as a leading post-Roe crusader for abortion rights — while maintaining one of the highest net approval ratings of any battleground governor.

Those are the only ones I really know anything at all about besides Harris, who would be one of last choices and whom I dont like. Since I dont like her she will probably take bidens spot lol.

But I would vote for anyone over trump and biden at this point.

For those hoping for Michelle Obama this article has her as the least likely choice despite doing the best of anyone in head to head polls vs trump.
A post-debate Ipsos/Reuters poll found that the former first lady, 60, would trounce Trump 50% to 39% if the election were held today, making her the only Democrat on this list who would start the race with better-than-even odds of holding onto the Oval Office. That’s a testament to Obama’s enduring popularity — both her husband Barack’s, and her own.
Obama has no experience running for elective office. She has never been a political candidate. And more than that, she seems to despise the whole partisan process, having tried (and failed) to prevent her husband from running and subsequently “drilled into [her daughters] so early that you would be crazy to go into politics,” as Barack recently put it. The chances that Obama would sacrifice her hard-earned post-White House private life to mud wrestle with Trump are next to nil.

I love hearing Secretary Pete speak, he's probably the 4th best political orator (at least on the national stage) in my lifetime (behind Reagan, Clinton, and Obama), but he is such a corporatist that I stopped supporting him. It's probably likely that I would feel the same way about Newsome and Whittmer if I studied them at all.

 

[Al-O-Meter]

Because so many people who haven't voted at high rates historically are now included in our constitutional republic's democratic process

Sorta. The changes affect the ratio of organic to ground-game votes. The changes empower the ground-game component to the point where it determines the winner even in cases where the opponent has a higher level of support.

As a side note, it really helps when the candidates are bad which causes voter enthusiasm to be low. The less inclined people are to vote on their own, the easier it is for the ground-gamers to control the outcome of the election.

 

[SteakNEggs]

You ever think that if Alt Left Democrats actually focused on their party and actual real life issues instead of psychotically obsess about arresting Trump for nothing like we see here that maybe the party wouldn't be in this position? Anyways I'm hearing there's a very doctored cut and pasted ABC interview where the Alt-Left fascist who arrest political opponents will probably fall for. It's embarrassing but that the alt-left fascist for ya... Here's a great read from New York Magazine.

1. Biden forgets things he shouldn't​

With age, everyone's memory slips. People lose the ability to remember insignificant details.

But the commander in chief — the most powerful man on the face of the planet — is forgetting the names of "longtime friends of the Biden family," according to Nuzzi.


"Those who encountered the president in social settings sometimes left their interactions disturbed.Longtime friends of the Biden family, who spoke to me on the condition of anonymity, were shocked to find that the president did not remember their names," she reported.

"At a White House event last year, a guest recalled, with horror, realizing that the president would not be able to stay for the reception because, it was clear, he would not be able to make it through the reception," she wrote. "The guest wasn’t sure they could vote for Biden, since the guest was now open to an idea that they had previously dismissed as right-wing propaganda: The president may not really be the acting president after all."

One source who witnessed an incident at the White House recently — in which first lady Jill Biden was forced to instruct Biden how to say "hello" to a Democratic mega-donor and family friend — told Nuzzi that Biden's decline has become exponentially worse.

"It hasn't been good for a long time, but it’s gotten so, so much worse," that witness said. "So much worse!"

2. People don't know who is in charge​

As the chief executive, the Constitution entrusts Biden with tremendous responsibility.

But Nuzzi's sources — again, well-connected Democrats — told her they are not sure who is actually in charge of the country.

Interestingly, Nuzzi reported that her sources have found themselves in "full agreement" with Donald Trump supporters on an idea that is otherwise dismissed as a conspiracy theory.

3. Biden's lifeless appearance​

Up close, the president looks like he is "something not of this earth," according to Nuzzi.

"Up close, the president does not look quite plausible. It's not that he's old. We all know what old looks like. Bernie Sanders is old. Mitch McConnell is old. Most of the ruling class is old. The president was something stranger, something not of this earth," Nuzzi revealed.

She made this conclusion after her most recent encounter with Biden — at the White House Correspondents' Dinner in April — during which the president couldn't remember her name despite knowing her.

"My heart stopped as I extended my hand to greet the president. I tried to make eye contact, but it was like his eyes, though open, were not on," she wrote.

The Conspiracy of Silence to Protect Joe Biden

The president’s mental decline was like a dark family secret for many elite supporters.

nymag.com