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The Conley Conundrum

We haven't lost a game since Conley has been out of the lineup....so what does that tell you?
We’ve lost three, but let me break it down better for you and all the “ZOMG better without Conley” crew:

Without Conley, we’re 8-0 against sub-.500 teams. Over that same stretch, we’re 1-3 against teams above .500.

Dem eastern conf lottery teams doe
 
We haven't lost a game since Conley has been out of the lineup....so what does that tell you?

That we are beating teams we should beat. That we played 4/5 worst teams in the league, 2 other lottery teams, 8th seed in the east, split with the two good teams, Mia at home and the clippers.
 
Playoffs? Uh? He is been pretty good in the playoffs.

Him being small could be a problem against certain matchups, especially against the LA teams but I imagine the coaching staff will find ways to hide him on defense so he could still be effective. For instance, against the Lakers he could guard Bradley, Rondo, Danny Green or KCP. Against the Clippers: Beverly, Shamet or Harkless. He has fared pretty well against OKC, LAC (CP3) and SAS in the past. He has not played against the Rockets in the PO, but he was very good against Harden and CP3 in the regular season.

Small sample size? I think you are misunderstanding the concept. What you are doing is projecting Conley's future play based on 20 games and iffy metrics (or at least not using them properly as silesian pointed out). On the other hand, catch and shoot opportunities has accounted for a bit more than 20% of field goal attempts throughout Conley's career - about 3 attempts per game -(at least from 2013, when tracking data became available). That's hundreds of games/observations. He shoots 40% of those and more on wide open looks. That's good. I don't disagree he is a more effective player with the ball in his hands. What I disagree with is your statement that he has no off the ball game whatsoever. I imagine his game and role will trend toward more catch and shoot opportunities as he also ages.
Pretty good in the playoffs how? Lowry before last season drew significant criticism for being soft and choking in playoffs but his overall stats/metrics are still better than Conley. And yet for us that somehow is considered "pretty good"? Are we not talking about competing for a championship?

Conley may had one pretty good series against the spurs in a losing effort. That was it. And that was from almost three years ago in a season when Carmelo was still Knicks best player and before he hurt his Achilles and lost a step for good. The rest of his playoff games were meh. Not to mention his overall mediocre efficiency. He is just a system player who had a designed supporting cast and he won't get that in Utah. He's now the one who needs to fit in and adjust to new playstyle, which leads to my second point:

We are making future projection on a player based on past games performances, yes. But we are doing so on an aging player who's now on a new role, new team and had some some serious injuries within the last three season. So which sample do you think is more representative of a proper projection of a playeris future performances? 20% of what he's done in the past? Or 100% of what he's done so far in this current season? I think critics on Carmelo should be able to tell you a thing or two.

And like I said, I don't disagree with the fact that Conley may one day pick up his shooting again, but shooting isn't his problem or only problem with the Jazz. He may be a plus on catch and shoot, but his 1 made per game doesn't justify the huge negatives he bring on defense/rebounding/any other offball values. You talked about us hiding him on defense, but why should we care to do that if we can simply bring on a tall shooter like Ingles/Royce who shoots more/better and doesn't need to “hide” on defense? If Conley is an “effective” offball player who brings more positive than negative, that is a different story. But he isn't. My point still stands.
 
Pretty good in the playoffs how? Lowry before last season drew significant criticism for being soft and choking in playoffs but his overall stats/metrics are still better than Conley. And yet for us that somehow is considered "pretty good"? Are we not talking about competing for a championship?

Conley may had one pretty good series against the spurs in a losing effort. That was it. And that was from almost three years ago in a season when Carmelo was still Knicks best player and before he hurt his Achilles and lost a step for good. The rest of his playoff games were meh. Not to mention his overall mediocre efficiency. He is just a system player who had a designed supporting cast and he won't get that in Utah. He's now the one who needs to fit in and adjust to new playstyle, which leads to my second point:

We are making future projection on a player based on past games performances, yes. But we are doing so on an aging player who's now on a new role, new team and had some some serious injuries within the last three season. So which sample do you think is more representative of a proper projection of a playeris future performances? 20% of what he's done in the past? Or 100% of what he's done so far in this current season? I think critics on Carmelo should be able to tell you a thing or two.

And like I said, I don't disagree with the fact that Conley may one day pick up his shooting again, but shooting isn't his problem or only problem with the Jazz. He may be a plus on catch and shoot, but his 1 made per game doesn't justify the huge negatives he bring on defense/rebounding/any other offball values. You talked about us hiding him on defense, but why should we care to do that if we can simply bring on a tall shooter like Ingles/Royce who shoots more/better and doesn't need to “hide” on defense? If Conley is an “effective” offball player who brings more positive than negative, that is a different story. But he isn't. My point still stands.

This will be my last reply. Make no sense to argue with someone who fails to see somebody's else point of view:
- He was good against SAS, OKC, LAC and arguably GSW. Did you actually watch him play?
- He is not one-dimensional as you are trying to portrait. He has been one of the best pick n' roll players in the league. He makes excellent reads and knows how to run an offense. He's been also a scoring threat which puts pressure on defense.
- "So which sample do you think is more representative of a proper projection of a playeris future performances? 20% of what he's done in the past? Or 100% of what he's done so far in this current season?". Duh, you just confirm you don't understand sample size. There is not enough sample size to confirm Conley has fallen off a cliff. If at the end of the season he is playing horrible, then YES, he has declined. But there isn't enough evidence yet. It's more rational to expect improvement based on his play the last couple of years. If you see him play, he still gets to his spots due to his quickness. On defense he is not as bad as you suggest.
- He is not terrible defensively but you may need to hide him against certain matchups in order to keep him on the floor. Our disagreement comes to this point: you think he brings nothing, even with improved shooting. No stats or facts will convince you otherwise. On the other hand, I believe a good Conley -even with his shortcomings- elevates this team due to his playmaking/smarts/intangibles/scoring ability.

So we may leave it at that.
 
Bogey with Conley in the lineup: 47.3% from the field, 46.2% from 3. Without Conley: 40.2% and 40.4%. His turnovers are also up since Mikes been out.
Sounds like having another ball handler playing with Donovan is helpful to the team. I wonder how much putting the ball in his hands and asking him to create has increased since Conley went out.
 
This will be my last reply. Make no sense to argue with someone who fails to see somebody's else point of view:
- He was good against SAS, OKC, LAC and arguably GSW. Did you actually watch him play?
- He is not one-dimensional as you are trying to portrait. He has been one of the best pick n' roll players in the league. He makes excellent reads and knows how to run an offense. He's been also a scoring threat which puts pressure on defense.
- "So which sample do you think is more representative of a proper projection of a playeris future performances? 20% of what he's done in the past? Or 100% of what he's done so far in this current season?". Duh, you just confirm you don't understand sample size. There is not enough sample size to confirm Conley has fallen off a cliff. If at the end of the season he is playing horrible, then YES, he has declined. But there isn't enough evidence yet. It's more rational to expect improvement based on his play the last couple of years. If you see him play, he still gets to his spots due to his quickness. On defense he is not as bad as you suggest.
- He is not terrible defensively but you may need to hide him against certain matchups in order to keep him on the floor. Our disagreement comes to this point: you think he brings nothing, even with improved shooting. No stats or facts will convince you otherwise. On the other hand, I believe a good Conley -even with his shortcomings- elevates this team due to his playmaking/smarts/intangibles/scoring ability.

So we may leave it at that.
Conley was good against LAC? On 40% FG and 28% 3PT??? Z-Bo was the reason they won that series while Conley got burnt by CP3(23pt on 55% FG).

Conley was good against OKC?? Russ didnt even play in that series yet he still managed 36%FG and 28%3PT. It was Marc and Z-BO who once again by combining for almost 40 a game to save the day.

He was arguably good against GSW??? You mean again on 38% FG and 28% 3P to average 13 and 6? That is ARGUABLY GOOD for Michael MAGIC Conley???

Wow, I've lost my words man. I don't know what else to say. Conley basically had his big men outscore/outperform him for most of the time during playoffs and somehow you believe he’s the one to come in and help make a difference on a team whose starting big man is anything BUT a good offensive player?

Yeah plus those 40% on catch n shoot on 1 BIGGGGG made per game during the regular season games surely won't plummet in the playoffs right? Oh wait...



Then there goes the SAS series...

He was really good... He WAS. You see? On a Memphis team that don't exist any more you see? Conley now is not the Conley he once was before he hurt his Archilles. You see? We aren't the Memphis team that had skill big men in Marc and Z-Bo who could effectively draw pressure away from the ball handler instead of double teams. You see?

So don't ever expect Conley’s pick n roll game to work as well with us. Probably never
 
This will be my last reply. Make no sense to argue with someone who fails to see somebody's else point of view:
- He was good against SAS, OKC, LAC and arguably GSW. Did you actually watch him play?
- He is not one-dimensional as you are trying to portrait. He has been one of the best pick n' roll players in the league. He makes excellent reads and knows how to run an offense. He's been also a scoring threat which puts pressure on defense.
- "So which sample do you think is more representative of a proper projection of a playeris future performances? 20% of what he's done in the past? Or 100% of what he's done so far in this current season?". Duh, you just confirm you don't understand sample size. There is not enough sample size to confirm Conley has fallen off a cliff. If at the end of the season he is playing horrible, then YES, he has declined. But there isn't enough evidence yet. It's more rational to expect improvement based on his play the last couple of years. If you see him play, he still gets to his spots due to his quickness. On defense he is not as bad as you suggest.
- He is not terrible defensively but you may need to hide him against certain matchups in order to keep him on the floor. Our disagreement comes to this point: you think he brings nothing, even with improved shooting. No stats or facts will convince you otherwise. On the other hand, I believe a good Conley -even with his shortcomings- elevates this team due to his playmaking/smarts/intangibles/scoring ability.

So we may leave it at that.
We don't need playmaking/smarts/intangibles you see? Rubio gave us all of that on half of the paycheck. We brought him in because he could shoot/score. But he doesn't do that at an elite level. 100% of his career stats don't support it(take as much of sample size as you want). Yet he is paid like like one, while being a negative on defense, rebounding and mostly other offball attributes.

If we all of sudden wanna play like the Grit N Grind Grizz there's certainly a way. Trade Rudy/DM be a good start. It'd be difficult. But what’s more difficult is asking a 32 yr old to suddenly evolve from an above average shooter into an elite shooter while learning to set screens/box out/rebound despite his 6’0 height.
 
Conley was good against LAC? On 40% FG and 28% 3PT??? Z-Bo was the reason they won that series while Conley got burnt by CP3(23pt on 55% FG).

Conley was good against OKC?? Russ didnt even play in that series yet he still managed 36%FG and 28%3PT. It was Marc and Z-BO who once again by combining for almost 40 a game to save the day.

He was arguably good against GSW??? You mean again on 38% FG and 28% 3P to average 13 and 6? That is ARGUABLY GOOD for Michael MAGIC Conley???

Wow, I've lost my words man. I don't know what else to say. Conley basically had his big men outscore/outperform him for most of the time during playoffs and somehow you believe he’s the one to come in and help make a difference on a team whose starting big man is anything BUT a good offensive player?

Yeah plus those 40% on catch n shoot on 1 BIGGGGG made per game during the regular season games surely won't plummet in the playoffs right? Oh wait...

Then there goes the SAS series...

He was really good... He WAS. You see? On a Memphis team that don't exist any more you see? Conley now is not the Conley he once was before he hurt his Archilles. You see? We aren't the Memphis team that had skill big men in Marc and Z-Bo who could effectively draw pressure away from the ball handler instead of double teams. You see?

So don't ever expect Conley’s pick n roll game to work as well with us. Probably never

Let me help you so you don't bang your head against the wall anymore:
  • You spent the whole thread disregarding Conley's shooting because he gives you nothing else, yet, you only focus on his shooting stats when is convenient for you. You asked several times ¿what else does he gives you? During the playoff series he shoot poorly he still played excellent defense, ran the offense, rebounded well, scored at all 3 levels.
  • In that sense, you cherry pick stats. MEM played 3 series against OKC. As I said, even when he shoot poorly, he was a big plus on the floor.
  • GSW? You need to talk to some GSW or Memphis fans because it seems you didn't watch that series. He played great defense on Curry while still running the offense. He mostly kept him under control and Curry went off one or two games if I remember correctly. It's unrealistic to expect much more from a player. Again, are you only focusing on shooting now?
  • "He was really good... He WAS. You see?" Duh, ¿do you want me to write in present tense something that happened in the past?. His Achilles? He had one of his finest season after his injury.
  • Sure, there could be doubts he won't be as good with us. But how can you be so certain? After 20 games or so?. You are pretty arrogant to be honest.
 
Good arguments on both sides. In my opinion the biggest problem with Mike is not his age, his injuries, his decline -- it's his fit. How does he fit with Donovan? He does he fit as a second small defender in the backcourt? Does he diminish Ingles' ability to create, especially when Joe who has been playing for the Jazz for a while runs the offense better than him?

I remember when the Bulls brought in Toni Kukoc. A lot of people said he was as good as Jordan, which he wasn't but still close to super-star level. Well, he didn't fit all that well and while he was a good player never performed at super-star level.
 
Let me help you so you don't bang your head against the wall anymore:
  • You spent the whole thread disregarding Conley's shooting because he gives you nothing else, yet, you only focus on his shooting stats when is convenient for you. You asked several times ¿what else does he gives you? During the playoff series he shoot poorly he still played excellent defense, ran the offense, rebounded well, scored at all 3 levels.
  • In that sense, you cherry pick stats. MEM played 3 series against OKC. As I said, even when he shoot poorly, he was a big plus on the floor.
  • GSW? You need to talk to some GSW or Memphis fans because it seems you didn't watch that series. He played great defense on Curry while still running the offense. He mostly kept him under control and Curry went off one or two games if I remember correctly. It's unrealistic to expect much more from a player. Again, are you only focusing on shooting now?
  • "He was really good... He WAS. You see?" Duh, ¿do you want me to write in present tense something that happened in the past?. His Achilles? He had one of his finest season after his injury.
  • Sure, there could be doubts he won't be as good with us. But how can you be so certain? After 20 games or so?. You are pretty arrogant to be honest.
Who cares about playing excellent defense or rebounding when Rubio already does that for us? We spent 32mil and all the assets just we can have a PG to shoot 3 % better and score 2 pts better in the playoffs? Wow, what an upgrade. So, yes. Of course I'm focus on shooting. Why shouldn't we? Especially Conley isn't exactly better than Rubio in those other department and with DM having the ball, all we need is a shooter who can open up the space for him to operate.

Plus you honestly believe Mike's still gonna rebound/defend for us now in 2020 at the same level he did back in 2013? That is still the thing you don't understand do you?

So don't dodge my question. What is more representative of future projection on a player who is already 32 yrs old, suffered multiple severe injuries within the last three seasons to miss more than 50% of the time and plays a new role under an well established system that is completely different from the one that made him good in the first place? 20% of what he's done in the past, or 100% of what he's done so far in this current season?

Ed is already out of this rotation my friend. So why don't you tell Quin to keep using him based on 20% of his career stats instead giving all those min to TB, who's never played any significant min prior to this season?
 
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Conley is the worst pick up we've ever made, trade, free agent or otherwise! Rubio fit in like a glove, as we were able to dominate the paint, dunk profusely on all opponents, and win game after game with blowout results! No more discussion about it. Worst pick up and trade we ever made bringing Conley aboard and giving up Rubio for virtually nothing.
 
Conley's issues are not specific to shooting. His defense has been bad, his playmaking has been bad, and his health is obviously not good. This stands out as the worst move of the summer. It was the correct decision to move on from Rubio, but the Jazz blew their load on the wrong player.
 
It was the correct decision to move on from Rubio, but the Jazz blew their load on the wrong player.

Totally disagree! With Rubio in the lineup we were getting easy baskets, mostly dunks, moving the ball around, piling up assists, winning by double digits.......you done threw your brains to the hogs if you think that was a good decision!
 
Totally disagree! With Rubio in the lineup we were getting easy baskets, mostly dunks, moving the ball around, piling up assists, winning by double digits.......you done threw your brains to the hogs if you think that was a good decision!

Rubio is a good player, but he is also the exact opposite type of PG to fit Quin’s offense. In this offense you’ve got to be able to play with and without the ball. Rubio needs the ball in his hands or he’s not effective. We were only going to go so far with the “open for a reason” team.

With or without Conley, the starters are still much better this season. The reason why the team isn’t quite as good is because the bench is trash.
 
Rubio is a good player, but he is also the exact opposite type of PG to fit Quin’s offense. In this offense you’ve got to be able to play with and without the ball. Rubio needs the ball in his hands or he’s not effective. We were only going to go so far with the “open for a reason” team.

With or without Conley, the starters are still much better this season. The reason why the team isn’t quite as good is because the bench is trash.

If Rubio didn't fit in with Quins system why were we averaging 26 assists, 10 dunks a game and destroying opposition like paper toys?
 
The only weakness Rubio had was his outside shooting and even that was improving somewhat. Plus, with the addition of a couple of guys we ended up with our 3 point shooting now leads the league and would have continued to do so under the leadership of Rubio, who had a very high Basketball IQ!
 
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