Avery
Well-Known Member
Probably a bit of backlog from the holidays to a degree, we will see how things progress.
Dear leader is telling us how he saved hundreds of thousands of lives today of course.
Coronavirus
- Thread starter Hekate
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Probably a bit of backlog from the holidays to a degree, we will see how things progress.
Dear leader is telling us how he saved hundreds of thousands of lives today of course.
This was not unexpected. Here’s my post and analysis from Saturday, when numbers were very low (and when there were crickets):
Tuesday is always the highest day of the week, because Sunday and Monday are the reports for the weekend. Sunday is always much lower than Saturday. This past Saturday being the 4th, we saw numbers drop to 265, down from 512 the Saturday before on the 27th. The Tuesday surge was predictable (I was off by 10%), as was the response to it. If you take an average of the weekend days through the weekend correction catch up day (Saturday through Tuesday), then this most recent average for the 4th-7th is 475 per day, up slightly from the four-day average from the 27th-30th at 473 per day.
The problem is, we have to look at nuance on both sides. I, as well as anyone looking at the data, needed to qualify Saturday's numbers with nuance (nobody mentioned them here, FWIW), just as we need to qualify the larger numbers of today with nuance. This applies to all aspects of debate surrounding this (or anything, really).
But there's an important idea found here: people are still watching the numbers and feel they aren't showing what (they hope?) makes most sense based on a political view of the numbers. Hence we will only discuss the death numbers when they're high, but pivot to alternative metrics when they're low. But will certainly show how much they're following them as soon as they swing in their favor (which is odd to phrase and/or view this scenario as being favorable). Also, there generally appear to be calls for everyone to eat crow each time Exum drops 15 in a blowout.
So, I hope you will continue to join with us in the death number discussions.
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candrew
Well-Known Member
Good short summary, and WHO’s response. It does sound like the aerosol spread may be the transmission mode that makes for superspreader events, and the reason why everyone wearing masks in any enclosed space is our best defense right now. Social distancing alone won’t work when microparticles can just float around and travel a hell of a lot further than 6 feet.
Aerosols, Droplets, Fomites: What We Know About Transmission Of COVID-19
A letter from over 200 scientists to the World Health Organization asks for further investigation into how the virus spreads. WHO responded at a press conference on Tuesday.www.npr.org
This may also be educational on aerosols:
Transmission of COVID-19 virus by droplets and aerosols: A critical review on the unresolved dichotomy - PMC
The practice of social distancing and wearing masks has been popular worldwide in combating the contraction of COVID-19. Undeniably, although such practices help control the COVID-19 pandemic to a greater extent, the complete control of virus-laden ...www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
To be completely honest I thought this debate was settled months ago - every primary source I've read on the virus from experts in the field refers to airborne transmission as a reality.
Red
Well-Known Member
That was my understanding as well. At least when researching this yesterday, to refresh my memory, I found peer reviewed papers from May arguing this point.
Red
Well-Known Member
In thinking about this further, the transmission prevention strategy has emphasized 2 things: wearing masks and 6’ social distancing. Someone correct me if I’m mistaken, but that twin strategy has the emphasis on airborne transmission from large droplets, from sneezing, etc. Not transmission as an aerosol. The 239 doctors who signed the open letter seem to be saying transmission via aerosol has not really been emphasized, even though, as you noted, the studies suggesting that mode of transmission are out there. And it is apparently the belief of those signatories that transmission by aerosol should be recognized as a major mode of transmission. The WHO’s response yesterday was ambiguous, and not a full throated endorsement of the open letter’s claim. Some claim, true or not I have no idea, that the WHO and CDC have not emphasized it out of a belief it will scare the **** out of the public.
D
Deleted member 365
Guest
Dear god. New record
25 percent positivity?!
25 percent positivity?!
Avery
Well-Known Member
That positivity rate is ugly. My only caution is that coming out of the holiday, it's possible we might have some backlog that wasn't distributed to Monday or Tuesday.
That said, no good way of spinning anything in this report if we've just willed ourselves to think that 500+ cases a day is acceptable whilst other countries have actually seen a decline.
Both our government and fellow citizens have all failed each other. We all own a piece of this mess deserved or not.
D
Deleted member 365
Guest
Monday and Tuesday were ugly too!
Monday had 517 new cases 6 deaths
Tuesday had 564 new cases 4 deaths
Wednesday had 722 new cases 7 deaths
If you meant the Henry Ford study, it turns out that it has some significant biases.
Henry Ford Hospital hydroxychloroquine trial: Not good evidence that the drug works for COVID-19
Recently, Henry Ford Hospital published a study of hydroxychloroquine for COVID-19 that showed a benefit. It doesn't, really.
respectfulinsolence.com
leftyjace
Well-Known Member
I'm curious what everyone thinks about Ron Paul's diatribes about Covid.
If you check out his Twitter profile, he is full-on saying that the media is turning this into more than it needs to be.
Keep in mind, Ron Paul besides being a retired politician is, in fact, a physician.
What do you guys think about his perspectives?
If you check out his Twitter profile, he is full-on saying that the media is turning this into more than it needs to be.
Keep in mind, Ron Paul besides being a retired politician is, in fact, a physician.
What do you guys think about his perspectives?
Avery
Well-Known Member
He's a gynecologist that hasn't practiced since the early 70's. I don't think he's more of an expert than others that are actively practicing or have studied a lifetime in the study of epidemiology.
You can't expect a mechanic who hasn't worked on cars for 50 years to fix a Tesla.