JimLes
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How is that not happening right now? Look who the top 4 players by minutes per game are.
enjoy your 5-6 more years of "decent" jazz team fighting for the 8th playoff spot.
- Thread starter yamers
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How is that not happening right now? Look who the top 4 players by minutes per game are.
fishonjazz
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So simple bro........ 1st pick has the opportunity to pick any player in the draft...... 3rd pick don't have a chance at the first two
To use your dumbass analogy about picking any girl you want if you were single: You want scarlett johansen but since Im picking first I choose her.....now she is not available for you so you have to pick someone that you did not like as much as her.
There is your difference between 1st and 3rd....... Essentially it is the difference between getting the player (or hot chick) that you covet most, or settling for someone that you want less.
JimLes
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Once again, then why don't all number one picks turn out better than all number 3 picks?
fishonjazz
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Cause those other gms are not as good as dennis Lindsey
GVC
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Across the whole sample, the difference in a pick or two isn't going to be statistically (or substantively) significant (it's virtually impossible to get the statistical power you're looking for given the sample size). In some drafts, however, I'd guess there are fairly clear talent tiers, where there's a significant drop-off in expected performance from one group to the next. Posters here are concerned they'll miss out on one of Parker, Wiggins, Embiid, Randle (Exum/Smart?).
I'm not comfortable labeling as "duds" Anthony Davis, Kyrie Irving, Derrick Rose, Dwight Howard, Blake Griffin, Yao Ming or Allen Iverson. I agree, however, that this isn't a point worth discussing.
JimLes
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Ah, the gambler's fallacy. Everyone else is an idiot, I know what I'm doing. Everyone else picks the NCAA bracket randomly, I put in sophisticated analysis.
GVC
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Looking at usage percentage and touches/time of possession make this even more obvious. The youth, including Burks and Kanter, are being given the ball. The vets are being used in complementary roles.
fishonjazz
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Not me silly.
It might surprise you to know that im not employed by the jazz.
I was talking about dennis lindsey
JimLes
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I know who you're talking about and I have no idea why you consider him immune to draft blunders.
Coach Ellis
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How about if we just consider the top 5 picks? That's what we're looking at this year, isn't it? How much better does having a top 5 pick increase the odds of getting a better player vs. picking top 10 vs. the rest of the first round (11-30)?
From 2003-2009 (The seasons in the past 10 years that have had more than one All-Star or all NBA player drafted.)
1-5 selections = 15/35 players (42.9%) of players have played at an All-Star or All-NBA level since they were drafted.
6-10 selections = 8/35 players (22.9%) of players have played at an All-Star or All-NBA level since they were drafted.
11-30 selections = 8/140 players (05.7%) of players have played at an All-Star or All-NBA level since they were drafted.
The caliber of player going from Top 5 to Top 10 is pretty dramatic. . .
Top 5 - Lebron James (1), Dwight Howard (1), Derrick Rose (1), Blake Griffin (1), Andrew Bogut (1), Kevin Durant (2), LeMarcus Aldridge (2), Carmelo Anthony (3), Deron Williams (3), James Harden (3), Al Holford (3), Chris Paul (4), Russell Westbrook (4), Chris Bosh (4), Dwayne Wade (5), Kevin Love (5), Devin Harris (5)
Top 10 - Chris Kaman (6), Brandon Roy (6), Stephen Curry (7 not an All-Star yet, but don't see how you can't consider him at this point), Luol Deng (7), Andre Iguodala (9), Joakim Noah (9), Brook Lopez (10), Andrew Bynam (10)
And while it's possible to find an All-Star Caliber player outside of the top ten, only Roy Hibbert, Rajon Rondo and Jrue Holliday look even close to being guys that you can build around. That's three players out of 140 players selected.
The Utah Jazz started off the season as clearly the worst team in the league. Ending up with a bottom two record guarantees that they'll pick no lower than #5 in what looks to be the best draft since 2003. They still have to make the correct pick when their turn comes AND then figure out how to build a championship team around that player to keep him (something that is easier said than done - see also Cleveland/Lebron James, Orlando/Dwight Howard, New Orleans/Chris Paul, Denver/Carmelo Anthony, Utah/Deron Williams, Oklahoma City/Durant/Westbrook/Harden). The point remains, that if you don't have the pick, you don't even have a shot at drafting a player in that caliber.
A team can make a trade for a player like that IF they ever come available. . . but how many will want to play in Utah? It seems like the best chance at getting one would be to have a down year, draft one and THEN try to figure out how to keep him.
There are lots of unknowns and variables, yes. But there is also countless time and money spent to help make more informed decisions on draft day. Not sure why you wouldn't want the Jazz to get the player they want most versus the player they want third most.
fishonjazz
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Ellis layeth the smacketh down.
JimLes
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If we just consider the top 5 picks, why would you look at the rest of the first round? The Jazz are not picking outside of top 10. Hell, the Jazz are likely not picking lower than 5th.
And 100% no lower than 5th if they have a bottom two record. Now do you see why some people would prefer to tank?
JimLes
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Because the Jazz have no control over this. There's no course of action that would ensure the Jazz get the player they want the most. Hell, even the biggest tank would only lead to a 25% chance. I've said it several times, if the draft still worked in such a way that the team with the worst record was simply given the top pick, I would be much more open to all these ideas. But it doesn't. Is trying to change your odds from 16% to 20% or from 20% to 25% really worth the trouble some people are suggesting(trading Alec, benching players, trading vets)?
JimLes
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But we CAN'T have the worst record under normal circumstances. For ****'s sake, why are people being so stubborn? We cannot be worse than the Bucks without getting rid of at least 3-4 players.
Even if the case, don't really see any harm in trying
Coach Ellis
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I thought that it gave a better picture of the point that I was trying to get across. Getting a franchise player almost always means having a Top-10 pick AND that the caliber of players in the Top 5 is significantly higher than from 6-10.
There's still a long season left to be played AND then anything can happen in the lottery. There's still a lot of variables that are going to factor into what pick the Jazz get and what kind of caliber of player will be available with said pick. You're entirely right that the Jazz still have a high likelihood of being a top 5 pick at worst and will probably not fall out of the top 10 no matter how bad other teams try to tank from the All-Star break and onward. . . especially with the East being so bad and so many teams having a shot to make the playoffs this year.