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Its Time to Tank

Here are our best 4-player lineups in net rating on the season out of 27 total lineups with a minimum of 85 minutes played together:

Sexton/Clarkson/Markkanen/Kessler +20.1

Sexton/Clarkson/Markkanen/Olynyk +16.6

Conley/Clarkson/Markkanen/Kessler +11.4

Sexton/Clarkson/Markkanen/Vanderbilt +10.6

Conley/Beasley/Markkanen/Kessler +10.4
 
Elizah Huge said:
Yeah, I don’t think trading guys off will hurt us as much as people think. Sexton is still super underrated on this board. We have been perfectly fine without KO already. If we trade Beasley and Ochai gets his minutes are we really going to drop off much if at all? I don’t think so.

We would have to trade Clarkson and Conley while getting nothing of significance back player wise to really do anything in my opinion.
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I think if you move Mike/KO/Vando/Beasley I think there will be some significant slippage... even though the guys can be somewhat replaced. You figure one or two small injuries and you are playing G League dudes. Honestly though... that is part of the process we should embrace right now. Swap 10 minutes a night of Gay for Simone or Potter for hells sake. Do a little research on these guys. I don't think we get to like 6-7 draft range... its more like 9-10ish if we can manage some guys. I also am not sure we trade all those guys unless its the Westbrook super deal.

I think chances of guys being moved are as follows:

- Vando - 90%
- Beasley - 65%
- Gay - 50%
- Mike - 35%
- KO - 25%
- JC - 15% - The team I am looking at is Milwaukee... an unprotected pick and Beauchamp is fairly appealing and they need to go all in.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
I think if you move Mike/KO/Vando/Beasley I think there will be some significant slippage... even though the guys can be somewhat replaced. You figure one or two small injuries and you are playing G League dudes. Honestly though... that is part of the process we should embrace right now. Swap 10 minutes a night of Gay for Simone or Potter for hells sake. Do a little research on these guys. I don't think we get to like 6-7 draft range... its more like 9-10ish if we can manage some guys. I also am not sure we trade all those guys unless its the Westbrook super deal.

I think chances of guys being moved are as follows:

- Vando - 90%
- Beasley - 65%
- Gay - 50%
- Mike - 35%
- KO - 25%
- JC - 15% - The team I am looking at is Milwaukee... an unprotected pick and Beauchamp is fairly appealing and they need to go all in.
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I highly doubt we’d move four guys without getting any decent players in return.
 
fishonjazz said:
I dont think its possible so no need to discuss that version of tanking. The version of tanking that I would discuss is trade the vets and playing the youth. That version of tanking doesn't hurt our win loss record next season at all imo and I think it actually improves our record next year. Might hurt our record this season slightly which gives us a better draft pick and helps our record even more next season.
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That I do not mind discussing. But I still argue that getting a piece that might gel with Lauri and Kessler and putting them on the court to build chemistry now is a better way to build for the future from the point we are at.

Maybe we make the playoffs and turns out the opponent comes up with a great plan to stop Lauri as he plays now. Would be nice to get that info ASAP so he knows where to focus his development effort... dont you think?

I like the prospect of adding PF now. PG will have to wait since I dont like any of the names out there and that is by far the most crucial part especially if we get OG or Collins.
 
Elizah Huge said:
Here are our best 4-player lineups in net rating on the season out of 27 total lineups with a minimum of 85 minutes played together:

Sexton/Clarkson/Markkanen/Kessler +20.1

Sexton/Clarkson/Markkanen/Olynyk +16.6

Conley/Clarkson/Markkanen/Kessler +11.4

Sexton/Clarkson/Markkanen/Vanderbilt +10.6

Conley/Beasley/Markkanen/Kessler +10.4
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And that is just it... say we figure out Sexton and those three are awesome over a bigger sample... I would care less that we got the 15th pick or whatever. Its just time... we effed around for a while now and the door won't stay open forever.
 
We’d really have to move Conley and Clarkson both to do anything. Sexton could replace either in the starting lineup if we only moved one and we wouldn’t be bad. Sexton’s advanced stats as far as on/off go are extremely good in multiple different lineups.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
Wasn't mentioning them as an example or benchmark... just that it doesn't have to be this long drawn out soul sucking franchise debilitating process.

I doubt we cut that far, but lets assume Danny finds a home for everyone except JC. So we have JC/Lauri/Walker/Sexton/THT/Ochai - and like 40-50M in space. Say we weren't lucky enough to land a top 4 guy but got someone like Anthony Black or Wallace in the top 10 and one of Jett/Dick/Hawkins with our Minny pick... the Philly pick is spent on a project who toils in the G League maybe. Say we bring back NAW. Say we use the cap space on okayish FA like Hart and Naz Reid. So you have:

Sexton - Black or Wallace
JC - NAW/Dick or Jett
Hart - Ochai/Dick or Jett - Maybe Simone
Lauri
Kessler - Reid soaks up the backup 5 but also can play 4 if we go supersized

That team might be worse than this team, but look at Indy... they have Mathurin, Nembhard in the rotation and Tyrese is also a young guy. Its not like we are relying on the rookies too much. With internal improvement on Walker, Ochai, Lauri, Sexton... I think we are pretty easily just as good. With a real "meh" summer and not a lot of luck tbh. Its also a more sustainable group.



Mike is helpful in that way... but you can go find a vet mentor that doesn't need 25-30 minutes a night too.. and the 25M can help us get a younger vet at another position. He also might want to make a title run before he completely falls off.


Okay... so if our rookies and young core are awesome then they take us to the playoffs and OKC can have the pick. If not or if there are injuries we add another high lotto talent.
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I appreciate the civil argument here. I dont think your version of tanking is egregious. Im not pissed if we do that, but I still prefer the other path of jumping to year 3 of a 5 year plan.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
I think if you move Mike/KO/Vando/Beasley I think there will be some significant slippage... even though the guys can be somewhat replaced. You figure one or two small injuries and you are playing G League dudes. Honestly though... that is part of the process we should embrace right now. Swap 10 minutes a night of Gay for Simone or Potter for hells sake. Do a little research on these guys. I don't think we get to like 6-7 draft range... its more like 9-10ish if we can manage some guys. I also am not sure we trade all those guys unless its the Westbrook super deal.

I think chances of guys being moved are as follows:

- Vando - 90%
- Beasley - 65%
- Gay - 50%
- Mike - 35%
- KO - 25%
- JC - 15% - The team I am looking at is Milwaukee... an unprotected pick and Beauchamp is fairly appealing and they need to go all in.
Click to expand...
Those percentages I pretty much agree with. I think the primary goal is to try and get a fitting piece back... but I agree about the "going out" part.
 
fishonjazz said:
Remember when we traded 2 franchise players and conrnerstones and all stars and then weren't even all that much worse the next year (hint. This just happened) Things turned out really good. Im not too worried about how devastating the losses of Conley (old, undersized, overpaid), KO (not very good), and Gay (addition by subtraction) will be after seeing how devastating the losses of two of the best jazz players to ever play here was (not bad at all.)
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You know I luv ya fish, but the two best jazz players to ever play here have statues out front of the delta center. You know, the guys who had the heart to drag us to the finals a couple of times, not get their panties in a wad a quit on each other.
 
HermanG said:
I appreciate the civil argument here. I dont think your version of tanking is egregious. Im not pissed if we do that, but I still prefer the other path of jumping to year 3 of a 5 year plan.
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I also realize its unlikely and unrealistic that DA would really trade all those guys for nothing... but if you did a Clips deal for Kennard and moved Beasley Gay to Cleveland for Caris i could see it really turning our season upside down. Kennard likely missing games to manage his knee and Caris doing Caris stuff. I think the intent would be space and getting a long term piece versus tanking the eff outta this B.
 
HermanG said:
That I do not mind discussing. But I still argue that getting a piece that might gel with Lauri and Kessler and putting them on the court to build chemistry now is a better way to build for the future from the point we are at.

Maybe we make the playoffs and turns out the opponent comes up with a great plan to stop Lauri as he plays now. Would be nice to get that info ASAP so he knows where to focus his development effort... dont you think?

I like the prospect of adding PF now. PG will have to wait since I dont like any of the names out there and that is by far the most crucial part especially if we get OG or Collins.
Click to expand...
Exactly. Trade the vets and get pieces that might gel with lauri and kessler and build chemistry now.
Might as well find stuff out now. It would be awesome to make the playoff with sexton as the starting poing guard, Ochai getting 25 minutes per night, and Lauri and Kessler both starting and playing big minutes. Then we can see what they can do in that situation. Keeping the vets just shows us what they can do. Which we have already seen.
As for point guard, that is literally the deepest position on the team. Which is another reason to trade conley.
 
SoUjazzfan said:
You know I luv ya fish, but the two best jazz players to ever play here have statues out front of the delta center. You know, the guys who had the heart to drag us to the finals a couple of times, not get their panties in a wad a quit on each other.
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Can you bold the part of my post that said Donovan and Gobert are the two best jazz players to ever play here? (I said two OF the best)
 
Elizah Huge said:
The crazy part is with how close the West is only 3 games separates 4th and 13th.
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Yep. Its really not that hard to be competitive right now. Pretty much every team in the nba is competitive right now. Those who are worried we wouldn't be competitive by trading a couple of old dudes should look at the standing. Almost every team is competitive and we still would be as well.
 
fishonjazz said:
Exactly. Trade the vets and get pieces that might gel with lauri and kessler and build chemistry now.
Might as well find stuff out now. It would be awesome to make the playoff with sexton as the starting poing guard, Ochai getting 25 minutes per night, and Lauri and Kessler both starting and playing big minutes. Then we can see what they can do in that situation. Keeping the vets just shows us what they can do. Which we have already seen.
As for point guard, that is literally the deepest position on the team. Which is another reason to trade conley.
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Fish, I love this take and agree completely. I won’t be torn up if we don’t find reasonable to good trades for Conley, JC and Vando and they’re all back next season - but we really should be trying to maximize our time in assets acquisition mode of this rebuild and making good trades with as many vets as possible is the best path forward. If that comes with winning, great. If not, then we have the opportunity to draft in the lottery in (what looks to be) a strong draft this off-season.
 
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