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Coronavirus

JazzGal said:
I find it funny that anybody insists that they know what is going to happen with any degree of certainty. And even funnier that they will argue it to the death. I suppose it is their way of processing fear.

Sent from my moto z3 using JazzFanz mobile app
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I find it "diagnostic" that you consider anyone who supplants unreasoned fear with any kind of information something unusual, something that requires a diagnosis that it's an unsupportable irrational way to "process fear"......

And my reason for posting this is just to let you, and others, know it's something we can, and should, laugh at. Our natural ways.... how infective Panic is in human psychology/sociology/politics….. is best addressed by some humor, I think.
 
The Thriller said:
Annnnnddd this is what happens when you tie health care to employment.
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Interestingly, you and I may have some common ground here on the bizarre societal, and eventually governmental, connection between employment and health insurance. For perhaps very different reasons, though.
 
Zombie said:
I see you're still having trouble understanding what exponential growth is.

Here's a little thought experiment for you, I'll give you a magic dollar that sprouts another dollar every three days. Every dollar spouted also sprouts an additional dollar every three days and so on. How long do you think it takes until you have a million dollars?
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A million? Quite a while I'm guessing. Probably over a month.
 
JazzyFresh said:
A million? Quite a while I'm guessing. Probably over a month.
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It would take about two months.

We have 20k coronavirus cases in this country that have been doubling at that rate. Do you understand why your posts have been astoundingly wrong yet?
 
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JazzyFresh said:
See now this is more in line with basic and common sense math, mediums, and projections.

From NYT's

Even if the United States cuts its rate of transmission in half — a tall order — some 650,000 people might become infected in the next two months.

That was the conclusion of Columbia University researchers who used a New York Times database of known cases and Census Bureau transportation data to model how the outbreak could evolve. The estimates are inherently uncertain, and they could change as the United States adopts additional measures to control the outbreak.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2020/03/21/world/coronavirus-updates-usa-world.amp.html

Logically that is approximately 21,000 cases a day. Still a huge number but compared to 800,000 a day just goes to show how wonky those fear pushing numbers are.
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I am beginning to see evidence in scientific and other reports that look, to me, like we're not going to get anywhere near the 61 MILLION US cases like in 2009 H1N1, and far less than the 15k +/- deaths of that event.

It's gonna make the socialist panic for 1T excess spending look questionable.

But honestly, this CoViD is potentially more deadly.... and we might end up with a 0.1% death rate on a much-reduced incidence stat of 20 M, or 20k dead. If we did not do all this stuff to get people off the streets and sheltering in place or at home, I still think it looks like it would have ended up with a 100K mortality stat in the US alone.

Are 80k human lives, and 200k people not permanently impaired and needing oxygen assistance, lugging little green tanks with plastic hoses hanging from their noses worth 1T $?

Wrongful death cases settle for a few million $ each. Permanent disability cases, too. 300k X 1M is 300B. A "Return on Investment" of 30c on the dollar.

Bad business. Someone should tell Trump this is a bad business deal. Someone should tell our Congress this is overkill.

The stay-at-home idea is absolutely needed, but it shouldn't require anything but a month's pay for anyone, and should only be mandatory until we can get a person tested and "passed" to get back to work. Only severely at-risk people, and infected people need the quarantine beyond our three-week travel/activity restriction time frame.
 
Love too pull numbers directly out of my *** and then wax philosophically about the value of a human life.
 
Zombie said:
It would take about two months.

We have 20k coronavirus cases in this country that have been doubling at that rate. Do you understand now why your posts have been astoundingly wrong yet?
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The facts/stats are not sustaining the 3x or the 3d figure you're using in your thought experiment. It's a good idea to go over this, and then lay in factors about changes in behavior/movement that we are taking now, and you can calculate stuff like costs and improved results in the exercise, and get ROI figures used in business decisions.

If we mandatorily isolate known cases---quarantine them---as soon as they are diagnosed, and if we generally pull back from spreading behaviors.... travel, workplaces, public events, recreation crowds, we significantly alter the results.

If we get more testing done, and identify more of the unknowing/unknowable carriers, and quarantine them, we can really manage this outbreak/pandemic.... and we are ramping up and doing more of that.

your math is good, though. doubling 10x in 30 d gets you from 1 to 1000. Doing that a second 30d gets you from 1000 to 1000000.
 
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Remember we're talking about 75,000,000 people. Other countries are getting sick at a similar rate and they have yet to hit even a half on one percent of their population. You are trying to tell me that just because America is located away fromany countries that we will get sick at 50%.

Italy is at .08% getting sick
Zombie is saying America will be at 50+% because for some unknown reason the virus is Americist.

Lol
 
Zombie said:
Love too pull numbers directly out of my *** and then wax philosophically about the value of a human life.
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nah..... honestly, I think you love to pull philosophical values outta your ***, than then wax scientific about why the world should bend over for you.( j/k)

My numbers actually came from published articles in the peer-reviewed literature.....

People can still go wild with speculation, though. And that's gaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaareat. We're human. We should cheer for our team, we should get excited/enthusiastic for stuff we care about.

That's what life, and conversations, or discussion threads are for.

Just put me down for the other team, please.
 
babe said:
The facts/stats are not sustaining the 3x or the 5d figure you're using in your thought experiment. It's a good idea to go over this, and then lay in factors about changes in behavior/movement that we are taking now, and you can calculate stuff like costs and improved results in the exercise, and get ROI figures used in business decisions.

If we mandatorily isolate known cases---quarantine them---as soon as they are diagnosed, and if we generally pull back from spreading behaviors.... travel, workplaces, public events, recreation crowds, we significantly alter the results.

If we get more testing done, and identify more of the unknowing/unknowable carriers, and quarantine them, we can really manage this outbreak/pandemic.... and we are ramping up and doing more of that.

your math is good, though. doubling 10x in 30 d gets you from 1 to 1000. Doing that a second 30d gets you from 1000 to 1000000.
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You're right of course that the measures implented (if followed) will extend the time it takes to double the number of cases. Unfortunately due to the long incubation period, time it takes for symptoms to progress to the point of going to the doctor and finally getting tested there's a 10-14 day lag time before the numbers will start to slow down.

That we're so far behind in testing also means that contact tracing and quarantining isn't happening on the scale it needs to to stop this is in its tracks any time soon.

Anyway, my post was meant more to illustrate why JazzyFresh's "we'd have to have 800k cases tomorrow for this to infect tens of millions of people" post was stupid and wrong.
 
Zombie said:
I just did *******. You're going on about X number of cases per day growing on a linear scale. That's not what's happening.
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No you didn't.

Give me numbers not insults.

I've broken down that the average number of sicknesses per country is around .05%. In case you don't understand that is 5% of tryinga single percentage. You're trying to tell me that just because im American I have a 2000+% more chance of getting sick. Just because I'm American.
 
JazzyFresh said:
Remember we're talking about 75,000,000 people. Other countries are getting sick at a similar rate and they have yet to hit even a half on one percent of their population. You are trying to tell me that just because America is located away fromany countries that we will get sick at 50%.

Italy is at .08% getting sick
Zombie is saying America will be at 50+% because for some unknown reason the virus is Americist.

Lol
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I'm saying you don't understand how numbers work.
 
Zombie said:
I just did *******. You're going on about X number of cases per day growing on a linear scale. That's not what's happening.
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How about X number of cases become 1.5X number of cases every 5d/

Worldometer reports.... world-wide...

Mar 1...….80k

Mar 6.....120k

Mar 11.....180 k

Mar 16.....270k

Mar 21....405k

With exponential discussions, the value of the exponent is the whole case. 1.5 is a lot less than 2, and an event time of 5d means it's a lot less than 3d.
 
Zombie said:
You're right of course that the measures implented (if followed) will extend the time it takes to double the number of cases. Unfortunately due to the long incubation period, time it takes for symptoms to progress to the point of going to the doctor and finally getting tested there's a 10-14 day lag time before the numbers will start to slow down.

That we're so far behind in testing also means that contact tracing and quarantining isn't happening on the scale it needs to to stop this is in its tracks any time soon.

Anyway, my post was meant more to illustrate why JazzyFresh's "we'd have to have 800k cases tomorrow for this to infect tens of millions of people" post was stupid and wrong.
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I think this is a reasonable response with measured, not panicked, concerns.

I've been going over the worldometer figures which I referred to above. Looking at different cases, different countries, is instructive. China did a total lockdown on affected areas, posting army units on the streets and a total stay-home order, and look at it now. They have reached 81k total cases to date. But as a total country, only 56/M people incidence, and it's virtually stopped dead now. I think only six deaths yesterday.

Only 41 new cases reported yesterday in China.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
 
babe said:
How about X number of cases become 1.5X number of cases every 5d/

Worldometer reports.... world-wide...

Mar 1...….80k

Mar 6.....120k

Mar 11.....180 k

Mar 16.....270k

Mar 21....405k

With exponential discussions, the value of the exponent is the whole case. 1.5 is a lot less than 2, and an event time of 5d means it's a lot less than 3d.
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So a billion cases worldwide by the end of June if not slowed.
 
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