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Gameface said:
I will never vote for a Utah Republican.

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Ok. I think that's a flawed thought process though. If the dude was perfect and everything you ever wanted in a politician but had an R next to his name and you didn't vote for him then I find that faulty thinking.

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infection said:
But not everybody got it and not everybody exposed to it got it.
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Okay.

Look I don't really know what I'm talking about. (spoiler alert)

But this idea that we're dealing with the common cold or the flu is obviously false. One person is spreading this to more other people than the flu. This may or may not turn out to be more deadly than the flu, but the one thing that is clear is that in areas where the outbreak has gotten out of control health care systems break down and people who could have survived die. That is different than the flu. In my entire life I don't remember a flu infecting so many people so quickly and sending so many of them to the hospital.

If my uneducated *** is overplaying this, I'm sorry. But I feel like there are too many people still not taking this seriously. Like the post I was initially responding to, which basically said the outbreak hasn't been too bad in SLC so we don't really need to shelter in place and ought to just get back to work. That is a recipe for having an uncontrollable outbreak that will overwhelm our medical capabilities.
 
Gameface said:
Okay.

Look I don't really know what I'm talking about. (spoiler alert)

But this idea that we're dealing with the common cold or the flu is obviously false. One person is spreading this to more other people than the flu. This may or may not turn out to be more deadly than the flu, but the one thing that is clear is that in areas where the outbreak has gotten out of control health care systems break down and people who could have survived die. That is different than the flu. In my entire life I don't remember a flu infecting so many people so quickly and sending so many of them to the hospital.

If my uneducated *** is overplaying this, I'm sorry. But I feel like there are too many people still not taking this seriously. Like the post I was initially responding to, which basically said the outbreak hasn't been too bad in SLC so we don't really need to shelter in place and ought to just get back to work. That is a recipe for having an uncontrollable outbreak that will overwhelm our medical capabilities.
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It’s become too black and white. For instance, I’m not stating that it’s the flu or a cold. There’s a lot of ground in between “it’s a cold/flu” and “the entire population will get it.” Unfortunately (not necessarily with you), many people view this very dichotomously, and if one expresses the very realistic possibility of this not infecting >50% of the population, then it is tantamount to dismissing it, not taking it serious, and not believing that the death toll can be large and meaningful.
 
infection said:
It’s become too black and white. For instance, I’m not stating that it’s the flu or a cold. There’s a lot of ground in between “it’s a cold/flu” and “the entire population will get it.” Unfortunately (not necessarily with you), many people view this very dichotomously, and if one expresses the very realistic possibility of this not infecting >50% of the population, then it is tantamount to dismissing it, not taking it serious, and not believing that the death toll can be large and meaningful.
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I respect your opinion on this.

You were not the person I was originally responding to. That was Catchall, who was basically saying that in places where the outbreak has been relatively small we don't need to take extreme measures to contain it.

Do you think the social distancing measures are needed in places that have so far not had a major outbreak?
 
Gameface said:
Okay.

Look I don't really know what I'm talking about. (spoiler alert)

But this idea that we're dealing with the common cold or the flu is obviously false. One person is spreading this to more other people than the flu. This may or may not turn out to be more deadly than the flu, but the one thing that is clear is that in areas where the outbreak has gotten out of control health care systems break down and people who could have survived die. That is different than the flu. In my entire life I don't remember a flu infecting so many people so quickly and sending so many of them to the hospital.

If my uneducated *** is overplaying this, I'm sorry. But I feel like there are too many people still not taking this seriously. Like the post I was initially responding to, which basically said the outbreak hasn't been too bad in SLC so we don't really need to shelter in place and ought to just get back to work. That is a recipe for having an uncontrollable outbreak that will overwhelm our medical capabilities.
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Responding to this and your next post. I think things do need to be done to prevent this from spreading. I also think we need to be better at the prevention of the flu. Some years the flu is really bad like 2018.

Are you sure this is more contagious than the flu? How many people have gotten the flu during the same amount of time in comparison this year? How about the same period of time when we had the bad flu in 2018? I don't think people realize how devastating the flu has been in the last 100 years or so. Read the history of flu. It's insane how lightly we take it. The fact that we are comparing this recent virus to something that's effected every human alive for 100 years and kills tons of people every year is crazy. If we had put this kind of effort and awareness into the flu we could have saved millions and millions of lives.

I don't think this is much worse than the flu. But I do think adding another virus on top of the flu that has a similar effect to the world is devastating. The flu is pretty devastating every year. Doubling it would be rough.

Let's get better at dealing with this. Let's get better at dealing with virus's in general. Let's make changes that are lasting. Employers need to stop forcing sick employees to go to work and spread viruses. People should stay home and isolate when they are contagious and we need to encourage that. People need to take vaccines to prevent things from spreading and putting others at risk. People need to be sanitary. Wash your hands, don't sneeze/cough without covering, wipe down surfaces regularly and all the basic stuff. We should be testing way more people and isolating the infected ones. We will get a vaccine for your eventually. But this won't be the last corona, bad flu, and other virus's.
 
Catchall said:
Current Utah statistics:
** 602 positive diagnoses from a base of 11,312 tests administered to people showing symptoms
** 95% of tests are negative, meaning they have the flu or some other viral infection
** 2 deaths have occurred so far, resulting in a fatality rate of 0.33%
** Both fatalities were patients with underlying conditions
** If we assume that there are at least another 600 or so people out there with the infection who have not been tested, the fatality rate drops into the 0.15% - 0.20% range, which is indeed comparable with seasonal flu.

I assume we'll continue to social distance and watch the data for another week or so, but it wouldn't surprise me at all if people started going back to work in mid-April with some basic precautions. At least a dozen or two other states are similar.
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First of all - 0.2% is NOT comparable with the seasonal flu. BAD years of seasonal flu end up with about 0.1%. Second, pretty much all estimations to day put the death rate at 1 to 3-4%.

The best estimations I've seen in the western world is that there are about 10 times as many infected as there are detected at any one point. You might say, well then this means that if the case fatality rate is 2% of the known cases, the real death rate will be about 0.2% when it's all said and done. The huge problem with that estimation is that the people who are dying now became ill 2-3 weeks ago and the people that are becoming sick and detected now will be resolved(either recovered or dead) in 2-3 more weeks. The best estimates of the exponential growth of the cases suggest that the cases multiply by 10 every 15-16 days or so. What does that mean? It means that the disparity is almost perfectly off-set - 10 times more real cases than recorded, but also people that are dying now became ill 15 days ago when there were 10 times fewer cases. When it's all said and done the death rate of this disease will probably be about 1% to 3% of the cases which is 10 to 30 times more deadly than the WORST years of seasonal flu.

It's also worth pointing out that the seasonal flu has reproductive rate R of around 1.3. COVID-19 has reproductive rate of around somewhere around 2.5, depending on the environment(i.e. how densely populated the area is, hygiene culture of the population, etc.). You might not think this is much of a difference but just imagine how quickly this will spread going forward.

Lets say you get ill? And you infect 1.3 people with the flu? And they each infect 1.3 more people... 10 steps forward this will mean you will be the initial source for the sickness of about 14-15 people. Lets take the reproductive rate of about 2.5 for the COVID-19. 10 steps forward you would have been the initial source for the sickness of 10000 people.

I really would wish people would stop comparing this to the flu. This is first MUCH MORE DEADLY and second MUCH MORE INFECTIOUS. This type of rhetoric is not helpful or truthful.
 
From the CDC:
CDC estimates that so far this season there have been at least 39 million flu illnesses, 400,000 hospitalizations and 24,000 deaths from flu. Including 155 children
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I don't see how covid19 is as infectious when in roughly the same time it's no where near those number of infections. Also you have to factor that people are getting vaccinated for flu and generally we know how to manage it better and treat it much much better. Also keeping in mind a large amount of the cases were from wuhan where things were very very poorly handled at first. The rest of China hardly got infected and death rates were fairly low outside one city. Also keeping in mind that many countries don't report flu deaths if there was any other factor. If you applied that same stipulation to this covid19 I'm pretty sure deaths would be reduced a lot. Italy reported 99% of their deaths had other factors. Not sure what other countries are though.

This isn't too show that covid19 isn't serious but to show the flu is. We don't need another virus to overwhelm our systems. Hopefully we can delay this and the flu cases from spreading as long as possible to find cures and vaccines. Plus spread the load at the hospitals to reduce deaths.
 
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Okay, more rant time.

Where has all this anger and worry been while the flu has been devastating us your entire life? How many millions have died from the flu in your life that could have been prevented with proper care and prevention?

Any moment a flu could break out that could be contagious as the normal flu but has a death rate much much might higher like 50%? Pigs all around the world carry deadly strands of flu as do some fowl. Why aren't we working harder to prevent that? Just because the name is something you haven't heard before? We've had close calls in the USA that luckily got contained quickly.
 
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